BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, September 19, 2014

Market Week in Review

Posted by Gary .....at 7:23 PM

S&P 500 2,010.40 +1.25%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 7:11 PM

Indices

S&P 500 2,010.40 +1.25%

DJIA 17,279.74 +1.72%

NASDAQ 4,579.78 +.27%

Russell 2000 1,146.92 -1.18%

S&P 500 High Beta 33.99 +.21%

Wilshire 5000 20,921.63 +.87%

Russell 1000 Growth 936.30 +.92%

Russell 1000 Value 1,010.42 +1.19%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 468.82 +1.49%

Solactive US Cyclical 137.99 +1.10%

Morgan Stanley Technology 986.31 -.20%

Transports 8,633.83 +.95%

Utilities 556.91 +1.32%

Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 112.34 +1.66%

MSCI Emerging Markets 43.78 -.59%

HFRX Equity Hedge 1,182.65 -.08%

HFRX Equity Market Neutral 973.24 -.07%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 228,598 -.03%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -59 +150

Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 40.0 unch.

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 297,281 -.90%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,528,614 -1.60%

Total Put/Call .82 -6.82%

OEX Put/Call .63 -55.63%

ISE Sentiment 81.0 -33.06%

NYSE Arms .92 +21.05%

Volatility(VIX) 12.11 -9.02%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.77 -9.79%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.28 -5.94%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.30 +.55%

Smart Money Flow Index 11,569.46 +1.65%

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.576 Trillion -.65%

ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.328 Billion

AAII % Bulls 42.2 +4.6%

AAII % Bears 23.0 -13.6%

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 279.40 -.89%

Crude Oil 92.41 +.28%

Reformulated Gasoline 261.14 +3.84%

Natural Gas 3.84 -.10%

Heating Oil 271.66 -.94%

Gold 1,215.50 -1.05%

Bloomberg Base Metals Index 196.38 -1.15%

Copper 309.15 -.37%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Ton +.65%

China Iron Ore Spot 81.70 USD/Ton -.37%

Lumber 329.0 -2.4%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,172.37 -3.0%

Economy

ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.7% unch.

Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0786 +25.4%

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 128.64 +.23%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.0 -16.2 points
Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.70 +5.7 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.60 -8.7 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17

US Dollar Index 84.74 +.67%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.10 +.56%

Yield Curve 201.0 -4.0 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.57% -4.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.408 Trillion +.65%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.87 +6.50%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 160.0 +1.20%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 26.80 -3.63%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 62.60 -2.54%

Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 221.64 +1.26%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.0 -5.45%

Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 324.11 -.48%

Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 238.82 +.28%

China Blended Corporate Spread Index 305.38 -1.14%

10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03% -9.0 basis points

TED Spread 22.25 -.25 basis point

2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 +.25 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 +2.75 basis points

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.20 -5.55%

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 56.56 -3.79%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 258.76 +2.59%

CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 82.0 -.5 basis point

M1 Money Supply $2.861 Trillion +1.14%

Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,050.80 +.10%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 299,500 -4,500

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% -10 basis points

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.23% +11 basis points

Weekly Mortgage Applications 352.90 +7.85%

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.s +.7 point

Weekly Retail Sales +4.20% -70.0 basis points

Nationwide Gas $3.36/gallon -.05/gallon

Baltic Dry Index 1,089 -7.79%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,104.76 -.87%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 -11.11%

Rail Freight Carloads 279,052 +16.69%

Best Performing Style

Large-Cap Value +1.20%

Worst Performing Style

Small-Cap Growth -1.3%

Leading Sectors

HMOs +2.3%

Biotech +2.0%

Hospitals +1.9%

Drugs +1.7%

Semis +1.5%

Lagging Sectors

Social Media -2.0%

Coal -3.7%

Disk Drives -3.8%

Alt Energy -4.2%

Gold & Silver -5.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (21)

AVNR, CNCE, AUXL, CNVR, GRT, ULTA, EPIQ, TGTX, APOG, AVID, QDEL, DD, ALR, BBG, TAP, DRC, TNET, PODD, GDOT, NUE and HDS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)

AGNC, HCN, FR, SKX, DDR, TEN, MDU, DEI, ADBE, ALOG, NEWM, BRC, EPR, RTRX, CTRE, OI, WPG, RATE, UVV, PETX, PIR, RAX and BBSI

Weekly Charts
ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Gaming/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:24 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower

Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

Volume: Heavy

Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 12.16 +1.08%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.99 -.44%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.30 -.41%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.01 +3.09%

ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -44.0%

Total Put/Call .80 -12.09%

NYSE Arms .68 -38.17%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.34 -1.29%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.66 -1.27%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.90 -3.21%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.60 -1.44%

Emerging Market CDS Index 221.23 -.66%

China Blended Corporate Spread Index 305.38 -1.51%

2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -.25 basis point

TED Spread 23.0 +1.0 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

Yield Curve 202.0 -4.0 basis points

China Import Iron Ore Spot $81.70/Metric Tonne -1.57%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.00 +.2 point

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.60 unch.

10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 unch.

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei Futures: Indicating -75 open in Japan

DAX Futures: Indicating unh. open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts

Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them

Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:01 PM

Bloomberg:

Europe’s Restive Regions Undeterred by Scotland’s ‘No’ Vote. Scotland’s decision to stick with the U.K. has thrilled European leaders without deterring independence movements across the European Union. While mainstream politicians expressed relief that Scottish voters rejected going it alone, leaders of the Flemish nationalists in Belgium, the Catalans in Spain and Italy’s Venetians said they still have momentum on their side.
Putin Sanctions at Economic Tipping Point as Markets Fray. Russia’s ruble, bonds and stocks rallied on March 18, a day after the European Union announced sanctions against the nation as President Vladimir Putin prepared to annex Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. Fast-forward six months and escalating EU and U.S. penalties and the ruble is at a record low, Russian banks pay the most on record to gain dollar funding and government bonds have suffered the biggest losses among emerging markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Micex Index of stocks is down 6 percent from this year’s high on June 24.
Islamic State Advance Forces Thousands of Syrian Kurds to Flee. A rapid advance by Islamic State militants forced Turkey to open its border with Syria today to about 4,000 Kurdish refugees who had been denied entry for the past two days. Hundreds of refugees streamed across a border checkpoint near the Turkish town of Suruc amid gunfire and a mortar round striking a village on the Syrian side, live CNNTurk television footage showed. Islamic State are within two kilometers of the Turkish border, CNNTurk said.
Ebola Worst-Case Scenario Has More Than 500,000 Cases. The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end of January, according to an estimate under development by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more infections. The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public.
Dollar Heads for Longest Rally Since 1967 on Divergence. The dollar is poised for its longest stretch of gains since Lyndon Johnson was in the White House after the Federal Reserve signaled an end to unprecedented monetary stimulus measures next year. The U.S. Dollar Index gained for a 10th straight week, the longest since at least March 1967, when Johnson was in the fourth year of his presidency. The yen fell to a six-year low as the Bank of Japan pledged to maintain stimulus to stave off deflation, and the euro reached the weakest in 14 months as the European Central Bank offered a loan program.
Copper Drops as Dollar's Surge Erodes Commodity Demand. Copper futures fell for the third straight day as the dollar’s rally cut demand for raw materials as alternative assets. A measure of the greenback against six major currencies headed for the 10th straight weekly increase, the longest rally since at least March 1967. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials touched the lowest in more than five years, and a gauge of the six main metals traded in London dropped to a 12-week low.
Fisher Says Alibaba IPO Selling Into ‘Rich’ Stock Market. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said Alibaba Group Holding Inc.’s record-large initial public offering today was tapping a stock market the U.S. central bank has helped reach an all-time high. “He is of course selling into a market that is very rich. We’ve helped make it so at the Federal Reserve,” Fisher told Fox Business Network, referring to Alibaba founder Jack Ma.
Lacker Says He Opposes Fed Plan to Hold Mortgage-Backed Assets. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said he couldn’t fully support the central bank’s revised exit strategy released this week because he opposes a measure to hold mortgage-backed securities. “I believe this approach unnecessarily prolongs our interference in the allocation of credit,” he said in a statement released on the Richmond Fed’s website today. Lacker will be a voting member next year on the Federal Open Market Committee.

ZeroHedge:

Business Insider:

Reuters:

Shanghai rebar slides to record low, more pressure on iron ore.

Financial Times:

Iron ore sinks to fresh 5-year low.

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:54 PM

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Growth -1.52%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Gold & Silver -3.01% 2) Alt Energy -2.13% 3) Gaming -2.01%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

BXMT, YHOO, RHT, SBLK, ORCL, CRR, SAP, KWEB, SDRL, MGA, WPRT, ERF, HSII, USLV, INVN, AVNR, VMI, IBKR, YRCW, OFIX, JD, SHLD, JOE, BBSI, SHLD, GDOT and TIBX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: