Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.08%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +.64% 2) Gaming +.63% 3) Computer Services +.43%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PBPB, JACK, HOLI, BSX, VA, YNDX, VEEV, Z, TEX, FLS, CNK, WWW, VEEV, MASI, CAVM and PAH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TMUS 2) SO 3) ACI 4) APO 5) RAX
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RAX 2) MGM 3) VLO 4) VMW 5) CELG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Putin Points Muslim Rage at Cold War Foes as Jihadis Vow Attacks. Hundreds of thousands of Muslims vented their anger in unison, shouting “Allahu Akbar!” as their leader condemned supporters of the satirical French magazine Charlie Hebdo after militants murdered five of its cartoonists. The protest against caricatures of Muhammad and the policies of the U.S. and its allies was organized by the state and televised live across the country for more than an hour, but it wasn’t in Iran or Pakistan. It was in Russia, where Vladimir Putin came to power vowing to “wipe out” Muslim extremists, even “in the outhouse.” Fifteen years on, Putin is now seeking to turn Muslim anger to his advantage by pushing for a united front against what he sees as a U.S.-led conspiracy to dominate the world.
• Greece May Ask for a Six Month Loan Extension. (video) 
• Chinese Local Debt Shunned as 50,000 Auditors Probe Provinces. Global investors are wary of Chinese local government debt just as the nation’s provinces start going overseas for fundraising amid state scrutiny. Qingdao City Construction Investment Group Co., a local government financing vehicle on the country’s east coast, sold a debut issue of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds on Feb. 5, raising $800 million in a two-tranche sale. Some 20 percent of the $500 million portion was bought by money managers, compared with an average 54 percent take-up for a $1 billion offshore deal by Beijing Infrastructure Investment Co. in November, people familiar with the matter said. China has mobilized about 50,000 auditors to probe local government debt, according to Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., after borrowings swelled to 17.9 trillion yuan ($2.9 trillion) as of June 2013, from 10.7 trillion yuan at the end of 2010.  
• Bank of Japan Keeps Record Stimulus as Country Crawls Out of Recession. The Bank of Japan maintained unprecedented monetary stimulus, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda aims to stoke a recovery from recession and counter a slowdown in inflation. The central bank will boost the monetary base at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($670 billion), it said in a statement on Wednesday in Tokyo, as forecast by all 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
• Russia Lures Asia Oil Buyers as Mideast Scraps Over Share. Middle East oil producers already scrapping for share in Asia must now contend with more supply from Russia. Russia, the world’s second biggest crude producer, boosted sales to China, Japan and South Korea by 25 percent last year, increasing its portion of shipments to 8.7 percent, from 7.2 percent in 2013, according to government data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia accounted for 24 percent, down from 26 percent, while Qatar and Kuwait also ceded market share.
• Asian Stocks Head for Five-Month High on Optimism About Greece. Asian stocks rose after U.S. shares climbed to a record amid speculation Greece will reach a resolution with its creditors. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 143.65 as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for its highest since Sept. 19.
• Oil rally seen reversing as unstoppable US supply deepens glut. The rebound in oil will reverse because rising US production is deepening the global supply glut, according to UBS AG, Bank of America Corp. and Commerzbank AG. Brent futures entered a bull market this month as US drillers stopped using a record number of rigs, companies cut at least US$40 billion from spending plans and hedge funds turned the most bullish in seven months. None of that will stop Brent slipping back to US$45 a barrel or lower within the next three months, from about US$61 now, the banks' analysts say. Prices fell as low as US$45.19 on Jan 13. The highest US oil production in three decades won't be curtailed by the idling of rigs and inventories will keep expanding, according to UBS. The rally has been based on sentiment rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand, Commerzbank says. As storage space fills up, producers will need to discount to sell barrels, Bank of America predicts.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Fighting in Ukrainian Transport Hub of Debaltseve Threatens Cease-Fire. Rebel Attacks on the Town Pose a Dilemma for Ukraine’s President. President Petro Poroshenko denounced the advance of Russian-backed separatists into a strategic transport hub as a violation of a cease-fire, but Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine’s troops were surrounded and should surrender. The street-to-street fighting as militants entered the town of Debaltseve Tuesday further darkened hopes for a European-brokered truce that was negotiated last week and left Mr. Poroshenko with narrowing options.
• U.S. to Give Some Syria Rebels Ability to Call Airstrikes. After training, moderate rebels to get pickups with gear to call for American B-1B bombers. The U.S. has decided to provide pickup trucks equipped with machine guns and radios for calling in U.S. airstrikes to some moderate Syrian rebels, defense officials said. But the scope of any bombing hasn’t been worked out—a reflection of the complexities of the battlefield in Syria. Military officials point to U.S. airstrikes, called in by Kurdish fighters, that helped drive 
• Pressure Builds to Weaken the Yuan. Traders have been pushing the currency lower, against central bank efforts to stabilize it.
• Americans Borrowing More, but Fissures Appear. Delinquencies climbed in auto and student lending. Overall debt rose $117 billion in 4th quarter. 
• After Boom, Bust Could Be Upon Apartment REITs. Rise in vacancies seen in Houston, Washington, Charlotte and Austin, Texas. After a banner year in 2014, the party might be coming to an end for real-estate investment trusts that specialize in residential apartment buildings. Last year, the category produced total returns, including dividends, of 39.7%, the best among all real-estate stocks, according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts. REITs overall recorded a total return of 28% last year, as the economy improved and interest rates stayed low.
• The Too Little, Too Late Presidency by John Bolton. Obama’s temporizing has been his foreign-policy trademark, from Iran and Syria to Libya and Ukraine.
  

MarketWatch.com:

• 7 charts that suggest the rising stock market may be wrong. 

CNBC:

• What top US hedge funds are buying and selling. (video)
• Greece faces resistance to extra emergency funds for banks: sources. (video) The European Central Bank faces resistance from Germany to allowing any extra emergency lending for Greek banks, people familiar with the matter said, increasing pressure on Athens to sign up to an extended aid-for-reform program. After talks between Greece and euro zone creditors broke down acrimoniously on Monday, the ECB's policymaking governing council will review on Wednesday how far the country may support its weak banks, which face rising deposit outflows.

Zero Hedge:

• Forget Hacking - CIA Accuses Russia Of "Manipulating The World's Weather". (graph)
• Is Japan Preparing For War?
• State Dept: "We Can't Beat ISIS By Killing Them..." They Need Jobs. (video)
• Retail Sales & The Market's Looming "Gotcha" Moment. (graph)
• Stocks Close At Record Highs; Shrug Off Schaeuble Shocker. (graph)
• Nigel Farage On "The Great Game Of Poker Over The Future of The Euro". (video)
• "In The End Capital Controls Will Probably Have To Be Imposed" - Eurogroup Official.

Business Insider:

• Gary Shilling says oil is going to $10.
• Big hedge funds have unloaded Alibaba(BABA).
• Big-time hedge funds bailed on oil companies.
• Five reasons why Greece will leave the eurozone this year.
• Barack Obama wants you to know that he reads all the mean things you write about him.
• REPORT: Snapchat is raising another round at a $16-$19 billion valuation.
• Putin is rubbing it in over Ukraine.

Reuters:

• Greece faces resistance to extra emergency funds for banks -sources. The European Central Bank faces resistance from Germany to allowing any extra emergency lending for Greek banks, people familiar with the matter said, increasing pressure on Athens to sign up to an extended aid-for-reform programme. After talks between Greece and euro zone creditors broke down acrimoniously on Monday, the ECB's policymaking governing council will review on Wednesday how far the country may support its weak banks, which face rising deposit outflows.

Telegraph:

• Tensions rise as the eurozone plays hardball with Greece. Is the eurozone contemplating Grexit in order to encourage voters in other European countries to redouble their efforts to stay in the euro?
• Grexit fears mount as Athens leaders refuse to 'accept psychological blackmail'. Analysts have warned that financial markets are not taking the risk of a Greek euro exit seriously enough, as talks with the country's creditors fail to make progress. 

Passauer Neue Presse:

• Greece Should Exit Euro, Return to Drachma, Sinn Says. Greece is broke and is already in bankruptcy negotiations, Hans-Werner Sinn, president of Germany's IFO economic research institute, says. Debt relief won't make the country competitive and would be like trying to fill a bottomless barrel. Greece has become too expensive as a result of a credit bubble induced by the euro and low interest rates and needs to become cheaper that will only be achieved by a return to the drachma. Last 5 years have been a denial of reality. Any concessions to Tsipras would be dangerous, would be a stimulus for other popular movements and would suggest "anyone can do what he wants".

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 66.75 unch.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (H)/.21
• (FLR)/1.10
• (ACT)/3.91
• (DUK)/.87
• (MAR)/.65
• (WMB)/.24
• (CAR)/.20
• (IPI)/.02
• (MIC)/.24
• (MRO)/.03
• (SCTY)/-1.27
• (CRMT)/.77
• (SNPS)/.62

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for January are estimated to fall to 1070K versus 1089K in December.
• Building Permits for January are estimated to rise to 1069K versus 1032K in December. 
• PPI Final Demand for January is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.2% decline in December.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy for January is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in December.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production for January is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in December.
• Capacity Utilization for January is estimated to rise to 79.9% versus 79.7% in December.
• Manufacturing Production for January is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in December.

2:00 pm EST

• Minutes from Jan. 27-28 FOMC Meeting.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for December.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CNC) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, US weekly retail sales reports, Barclays Industrial Conference, (TPX) investor day and (SMG) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Greece Deal Hopes, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.63 +6.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.15 +1.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.61 -4.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.83 -.22%

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -17.0%

• Total Put/Call .98 +2.08%

• NYSE Arms .91 +5.20% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.84 -.88%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 707.0 -.33%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.11 +.16%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.63 -.74%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.52 -.25%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 368.43 +.21%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.64 -.01%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 25.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -2.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 146.0 +8.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $63.02/Metric Tonne -3.46%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -45.40 -8.2 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.20 +3.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.0 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 +3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +182 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.31%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.56% 2) Software -.87% 3) Internet -.85%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CSGP, HLX, HOLI, USLV, PFNX, IHG, LXFT, GLF, JCE, KING, ATRC, USTR, CAB, CRY, OUTR, ADP, BIDU, IT, RYN, UGLD, ITT, SSLT, ANW, JACK, CAG and VNR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FOSL 2) Z 3) GT 4) EWG 5) HOT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CSX 2) RIG 3) YHOO 4) M 5) BAC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.02%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +.98% 2) Biotech +.75% 3) Tobacco +.51%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KNDI, CYBR, VIPS, SRPT, EBIX, QSR, GPRO, PPO, LCI, FEYE and WM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VDSI 2) ARRY 3) SPPI 4) MSI 5) ACI
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MU 2) MDT 3) TPX 4) JKHY 5) NUS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Fight Grinds On as First Deaths Reported After Truce. The conflict in Ukraine escalated with the first deaths since a cease-fire went into effect after midnight on Feb. 15 as government troops battled pro-Russian militants. Five government soldiers were killed and 25 wounded in fighting near the strategic port city of Mariupol, Ukrainian military spokesman Dmytro Chalyi said by phone on Monday. Debaltseve, a key rail junction, was the focus of shelling by insurgents, according to the Defense Ministry in Kiev. Rebels blame Ukraine for repeatedly violating the truce, according to comments carried by the separatist-run DAN news service. The Obama administration Monday said it’s “gravely concerned” and urged a halt to attacks near Debaltseve. 

• Eurogroup to Greece: Your Move. The abrupt ending to the Eurogroup meeting this evening in Brussels points to the fundamental differences between the two sides of the negotiations. The Eurogroup, for their part, will not renegotiate the program without an extension of the current program in place. Greece will not agree to an extension of the current program. Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem, speaking after the meeting, said that there is not enough time to renegotiate the program. Instead Greece must agree to an extension to the current bailout first, which would then allow time to explore flexibility in the Greek program. Greece rejected this insistence on an extension of the bailout as "absurd" and "unacceptable." That is where we stand this evening.

• Islamic State Video Shows Beheadings of Coptic Christians. A purported video by Islamic State fighters appears to show the beheading of 21 Egyptian Christians kidnapped in Libya, according to the Site Intelligence Group, which reports and analyzes terrorist threats. The video, posted on social media Sunday, shows a line of men in orange jumpsuits walking along a beach, each accompanied by a masked man in black wielding a knife. The men are forced to kneel and then lie face down in the sand as they are decapitated. If its authenticity is confirmed, the video would underscore the geographic spread of Islamic State, which declared a self-styled caliphate in parts of Iraq and Syria. A spokesman for the Christian Coptic Church in Egypt confirmed the identities of those who appeared slain in the video, according to the Middle East News Agency. The video is entitled “A message signed with blood to the nation of the cross,” and later refers to “the followers of the hostile Egyptian Church.”   

• Egypt Bombs Islamic State in Libya to Avenge Christian Beheadings. Egypt bombed Islamic State targets in Libya to avenge the beheading of 21 Egyptian Christians there, and called on other nations to strike at the militants operating in its oil-rich western neighbor. The airstrikes, which the military said hit camps and weapons depots, threatened to draw Egypt deeper into the chaos engulfing Libya. “Avenging Egyptian blood is a national imperative,” the military said in the statement aired early Monday on state television. The strikes killed three children and two women, state-run LANA news agency said, citing Al-Nabaa television. The aerial attacks marked Egypt’s first open military action in Libya, where a security collapse and a power struggle between Islamists and the elected government have driven the nation to the brink of chaos. 

• Greek Euro Exit Risk Signals ECB’s QE Safeguards Wanting. Mario Draghi’s assurance that the European Central Bank has ring-fenced the risks of its bond-buying program has a caveat. While the ECB president says the euro area’s 19 national central banks will buy and hold their own country’s debt, the money they create -- at least 1.1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) -- can flow freely across borders through the region’s Target2 payment system. Should a nation build up liabilities and then leave the currency union, the remaining members may have to share the bill.

• How a Liquidity Squeeze Could Push Greece Out of the Euro. The standoff between Greece and its creditors on how to proceed on its bailout program risks triggering a simultaneous cash and credit crunch, which could drive the country out of the euro area. Here’s how a worst-case scenario could unfold:

• Ukraine Bonds Drop on Debt Restructuring, Strains in Cease-Fire. Ukraine’s foreign-currency bonds fell as the government said it was looking to restructure its debt by June and a cease-fire showed signs of strain. Bonds headed for their biggest two-day decline in four weeks after Ukraine said it was seeking to reach an agreement with bondholders on a $15 billion restructuring before the International Monetary Fund’s first bailout review. Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s debt, saying the nation’s creditworthiness deteriorated and the economy would shrink 5 percent this year.  

• Putin’s Paradise Becomes Economic No-Go Zone Where Cash Is King.  Nearly a year after Russia annexed Crimea, Moscow’s man here, Oleg Saveliev, is struggling with a seemingly mundane task: paying bills. Like everyone on this disputed Black Sea peninsula, the minister for Crimea is living in an economic no man’s land. International banks like UniCredit SpA, credit cards like MasterCard and Visa, global brands like McDonald’s -- all vanished with Russia’s adventurism in Ukraine and seizure of Crimea. In their place has come a cash-only society of runaway inflation, chronic shortages and growing anxiety over the conflict. Even Russian companies are staying away.

• Why Putin Fears China. Boxed in by the U.S. and its allies, faced with an uneasy relationship with China and needing new friends and income, Russia is popping up everywhere in Asia. A new strategic agreement with Pakistan. A visit by Vladimir Putin to India. Helping search for a plane that crashed off Indonesia. Coaxing Kim Jong Un to venture out of North Korea. In a region where some governments may be less squeamish about events in Ukraine, Putin is surprisingly welcome. Russia’s forays reflect a dual strategy: To find new markets as its economy is crushed by sanctions and last year’s tumble in oil prices, and to diversify from its one big ally in Asia -- China. Putin is concerned that his relationship with Xi Jinping is becoming increasingly tilted in China’s favor. 

• China Said to Ask Local Governments to Re-Examine Reported Debt. China’s finance ministry asked local governments to re-examine the amount of debt they reported previously as authorities step up efforts to limit leverage and control risks to the financial system. Some local governments inflated the amount of their debt, so all the data needs to be checked again, two people familiar with the matter said today, asking not to be identified because the details are private. The local governments should examine whether they have included any debt they don’t have to repay, and they should also make sure any debt they may incur is excluded so as the figures aren’t artificially inflated, the people said.

• Libya Warns of Complete Oil Shutdown as Attacks Escalate. Libya’s state-run oil company warned that it would shut production at all fields if authorities in the divided nation fail to contain an escalation of attacks on facilities that has cut crude output to a year-low.  

• Asian Stocks Fall for First Time in Four Days on Greece Concern. Asian stocks fell from a 4 1/2 month high after talks between Greece and its creditors broke down. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent to 143.17 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo after closing yesterday at the highest since Sept. 25. Talks in Brussels ended abruptly Monday as an official from Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government said the euro area’s recommendation to extend the current bailout conditions was unacceptable. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index halted two days of gains. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 0.5 percent since Feb. 13, with U.S. markets closed yesterday for a holiday.

• Appaloosa Cut U.S. Stocks By 40% as Tepper Exits Citigroup. Billionaire investor David Tepper reduced his firm’s investments in U.S. stocks last quarter, liquidating stakes in some of the largest companies. The value of Appaloosa Management’s publicly disclosed U.S. equity positions dropped by $2.74 billion last quarter to $4 billion, according to a regulatory filing Friday. The firm exited its holdings in Citigroup Inc., Halliburton Co., Facebook Inc. and Apple Inc. The firm also sold almost all its shares of an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The moves came as Tepper, who manages about $20 billion, made bullish comments about U.S. stocks in interviews during the quarter. He said on CNBC in December that the S&P 500 could rise 8 percent to 10 percent in 2015 after telling Bloomberg Television in October that the price-to-earnings ratios for U.S. stocks weren’t high. “The U.S. economy is pretty good, stocks are not at high multiples right now,” he said in the October interview.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Port Delays Starting to Damage Businesses. Backups hurt retailers and take a heavy toll on small companies as labor dispute drags on. As employers at the ports along the West Coast on Monday refused to unload ships for the sixth day out of the past 10, their nine-month contract dispute with port workers is becoming a significant business problem.

• Dollar’s Rise Papers Over Miners’ Woes. Currency moves reduce costs, allowing them to keep operations humming. Mining companies, slammed by tumbling commodities prices, have in recent days vowed not to cut production, saying the stronger dollar is cushioning the blow of falling markets. Companies ranging from Australian miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto to smaller firms like South Africa’s Lonmin PLC are benefiting from the stronger greenback because they receive dollars for the gold, copper and iron ore they dig up, but pay for labor and many other costs using local currencies. When the dollar rallies, revenue generated by metals sales stretch further in covering expenses.

Fox News:

• Police in Canada foil Valentine's Day massacre plot. A senior police official said Friday that police foiled a plot by two suspects who were planning on going to a mall and killing as many people as they could before committing suicide on Valentine's Day in Halifax. The official told The Associated Press the suspects were on a chat stream and were apparently obsessed with death and had many photos of mass killings. 

• Egyptian beheadings show ISIS taking ‘global jihad’ to rest of Arab world. (video) The Islamic State's mass execution of Egyptian Christians is the latest sign that ISIS is pointing its sword against not just the West but the rest of the Arab world -- drawing the region into a spreading war that leaves the United States in a difficult spot as it tries to marshal a cohesive coalition.

MarketWatch.com:

• Cleveland Fed president sees June rate hike as ‘viable option’. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is joining a chorus of central-bank officials who want to take a tentative step toward raising short-term interest rates at midyear by altering their pledge to be “patient” before making a move.

Zero Hedge:

• Mark Spitznagel On The 'Myth' Of The Black Swan Event. (graph)

• Another Bubble Pops: Price Of Farmland Suffers First Annual Decline Since 1986. (graph)

• Fourth Turning: The Shadow Of Crisis Has Not Passed - Part 4.

• ISIS Breaches US Military Advisers' Iraqi Base.

• Why German Investors Are Hoping The Economy Gets Even Worse. (graph)

• World's Largest Shipbuilder Reports $3 Billion Loss As Baltic Dry Index Hits New Record-er Low. (graph)

• 5 Things To Ponder: Greek Dressing.

• Greek Government "Not Holding Out Much Hope" For Monday Even As Market Signals Deal Imminent.

• "Gaussian Demolition": Observations On Key Global Events.

• Texas: Separating Fact From Fed Fiction. (graph)

• Dismantling Krugman's "Debt Doesn't Matter" Mantra.

• The Minsk Peace Deal: Farce Or Sellout?

• West Coast Ports Shut Down For Holiday Weekend: Supply Chain Halt Threatens Havoc On Reeling Economy.

• Goldman Warns Over-Supply Means Oil Prices Will Be Much Lower.

• Nuclear Specter Returns: "Threat of War Is Higher Than In The Cold War".

• Derivatives: No Longer Used For Hedging But Exclusively For "Alpha Generation". (graph)

• The Only Question About The So-Called "Recovery". (graph)

• Normality Seems As Distant As Ever: The Global Economy's Chinese Headwinds.

• Two More Harbingers Of Financial Doom That Mirror The Crisis Of 2008. (graph)

• David Stockman: The Global Economy Has Entered The Crack-Up Phase.

• JPY Slides After Japanese GDP Disappoints (Again); Economy Minister "Hopes" For Wage Increases. (graph)

• Four Key Themes From Q4 Earnings: From Dollar Headwinds To Management Over-Confidence.'

• "I Live In Constant Fear" Kyle Bass Explains How We Got Here. (video)

• Eurogroup Meeting Over - Talks Have Broken Down; Risk Slides After Greece Says "Won't Take Orders On Bailout" - Live Feed. (video)

• EU Leaders "Are Afraid The Syriza 'Virus' Will Spread Across Europe".

• "The Rig Count Decline Is Not Sufficient To Slow US Production" Goldman Warns. (graph)

• The Impact Of A Liquidity Bubble On Price In One Chart. (graph)

• What Risk? "The Spoils Go To The Ignorant Only - The Fed's True Heroes".

• Greece And Euroland's Crumbling McMansion Of Debt.

• China's COSCO Dis-Assembles 8 Ships Amid Glut As Baltic Dry Hits Another Record Low. (graph)

• After Conducting Navy Drills In East Mediterranean, Russia Puts Airborne Troops In Volgograd On Alert.

• How Did We End Up Here? (graph)

• 'Sceptical' Schaeuble Sounds Off: "I Feel Sorry For The Greeks & Their Irresponsible Government".

• In NYT Op-Ed, Yanis Varoufakis Says Greece Is Not Bluffing, "Will Not Cross Red Lines It Has Drawn".

• UBS Answers "What Could Go Wrong".

• German Lawmaker Demands All Payments To Greece Be "Immediately Stopped".

• Why The Price Of Oil Is More Likely To Fall To 20 Rather Than Rise To 80.

• Hans-Werner Sinn: "Impose Capital Controls In Greece Now To Avoid Another Cyprus".

• Greece: What Happened Today, And What Happens Next.

Business Insider:

• Google's(GOOG) co-founders are about to sell $4.4 billion worth of shares.

• David Tepper dumped all of his Alibaba(BABA) and Facebook(FB) shares.

• Apple(AAPL) may have hundreds of people working on an electric car that looks like a minivan.

• One dead after shooting during free speech event in Copenhagen attended by controversial artist who drew the Prophet Mohammad as a dog.

• Stocks and bonds are really expensive. (graph)

• These maps show how terrorism is spreading through the Middle East's most populous country.

• Here's who backs Putin in Europe — and why.

• Danish police: Several injured after shooting at Copenhagen synagogue.

• Israel calls for 'massive immigration' of European Jews after Copenhagen shooting.

• China is marching into uncharted territory and that should scare you.

• Ukraine is on edge as cease-fire ignored at key railway hub.

• Danish intel chief: Copenhagen attacks likely inspired by Islamic radicalism.

• Russia's aggression in Ukraine is part of a broader, and more dangerous, confrontation with the West.

• Greece is sticking to its no-austerity guns. 

• Expert: Putin's inner circle is increasingly military-minded.

• HUGE SPY PROGRAM EXPOSED: NSA has hidden software in hard drives around the world.

• The Ukraine peace deal is on the verge of collapse.

• MORGAN STANLEY(MS): US consumers just aren't spending their gas savings like we thought they would.

Telegraph:

• Greece is on a fast track out of the euro. Is a Grexit fair punishment for Europe's stubbornness? 

Bild:

• Ukraine Premier Says He Doesn't Trust Russian Leadership. Words don't count as measures needed to solve conflict, Ukraine PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk said in an interview, casting doubt Russia will do everything to achieve peace. Yatsenyuk says it is Russian President Vladimir Putin's biggest dream to establish hegemonic control over Ukraine, which may start new version of former USSR. Russia may do everything to undermine peace process, weaken Ukraine. Says biggest challenge is to reestablish full control of the Ukrainian border, as his country aims to retake Donetsk, Luhansk step-by-step.

• Ifo's Sinn Says Greek Euro Exit Would Be Best for Country. Previous policy to save Greece hasn't worked "because it's not making Greece competitive," citing Hans-Werner Sin, head of Germany's Ifo economic institute. If Greece doesn't exit euro, it will keep adding new debt it won't be able to repay. Debt writedown is precondition for euro exit.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 66.75 -1.0 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.42%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (GPC)/1.07

• (WM)/.60

• (GT)/.59

• (MGM)/.06

• (WWW)/.30

• (A)/.41

• (DVN)/1.05

• (FLS)/1.12

• (VMI)/1.62

• (TEX)/.69

• (VNO)/1.23

• (FE)/.76

• (CF)/5.08

• (RAX)/.19

• (FOSL)/3.07

• (JACK)/.87

• (ADI)/.61

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 8.5 versus 9.95 in January.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for February is estimated to rise to 58 versus 57 in January.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for December.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Plosser speaking, China property price report, UK CPI, German ZEW Index and the (WCG) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.