Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.22%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +1.23% 2) Biotech +.94% 3) Restaurants +.68%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RTRX, GOLD, ESPR, GES, JUNO, VSLR, FOLD, EYES, KITE, CLDN, TGTX and IRWD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GES 2) RAD 3) HZNP 4) FOLD 5) WSM
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CSC 2) AET 3) JBL 4) ICE 5) FB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• ECB Said to Grant Greece Less Emergency Liquidity Than Requested. The European Central Bank raised the maximum amount of emergency liquidity available to Greek lenders by 400 million euros ($435 million), less than the Greek central bank requested, people familiar with the decision said. The increase was approved by the ECB’s Governing Council on Wednesday, the people said, asking not to be identified as the council meeting was private. Greece requested about 900 million euros, one of the people said. 
• Merkel-Tsipras Talks: What's at Stake for Greece? (video)
• Why the Yen’s Slide Isn’t Bringing Japan’s Factories, Jobs Back. Crows circle around the tract of cleared land that was once Hoya Corp.’s Pentax camera plant in Mashiko. All that’s left is a sign directing employees to a dormitory and gymnasium, both pulled down years ago when a strong yen was driving manufacturers abroad. This was once part of Japan’s industrial heartland, a place that shows little sign of benefiting from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s success in weakening the currency and battling deflation. While a 36 percent tumble in the yen has stoked record profits at big exporters like Toyota Motor Corp., the jobs lost here have yet to return.  
• Emerging Currency Rout Signals Stocks Are Next: Chart of the Day. (graph) The currency market has often served in the recent past as an early-warning system for emerging-market stock investors. Right now, it’s flashing red.
• Asia Bonds, Stocks, U.S. Futures Jump on Fed; Dollar Down. Asian bonds and stocks outside of Japan climbed with U.S. index futures after the Federal Reserve signaled interest rates will rise at a slower pace than previously forecast. The dollar tumbled, while gold rose. Yields on 10-year debt from Australia to Japan slipped at least three basis points by 10:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with Treasury rates at a six-week low. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 0.8 percent, set for a six-month high, even as Japan’s Topix index dropped amid gains in the yen. 
• Gold Extends Rally as Fed Signals Slower Pace of Rate Increases. Gold extended a rebound from the lowest price in three months after the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rates may rise at a slower pace than estimated. Gold for immediate delivery added as much as 0.9 percent to $1,177.96 an ounce in Singapore and was at $1,171.29 by 9:31 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal climbed 1.6 percent on Wednesday, the most since January, after slumping to $1,142.92 on March 17, the lowest since Dec. 1, amid speculation the Fed would soon boost borrowing costs.
• Fed Bid to Decouple From Global Easing Hampered by Dollar's Rise. Federal Reserve officials are finding it harder than they first thought to decouple U.S. monetary policy from the rest of the world. While policy makers opened the door to an interest-rate increase later this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested they were in no hurry and said the pace of tightening, once begun, would be slower than previously anticipated.

Wall Street Journal:

• Low Inflation Argues for Fed Patience. If today’s low inflation persists, fighting the next recession will be hard. The U.S. economy will be better-positioned for the next recession if interest rates are higher when the downturn starts. Paradoxically, the best way to achieve that may be to keep rates lower now. As the Federal Reserve meets today, the case for lifting rates from zero looks solid. 
• Banks Struggle to Unload Oil Loans. Citigroup(C), Goldman(GS), UBS and others face losses as investors balk at riskiness of energy sector. Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG and other large banks face tens of millions of dollars in losses on loans they made to energy companies last year, a sign of investor jitters in a sector battered by the oil slump. 
• Investors Raise Alarm Over Liquidity Shortage. Regulators also worried falling trading volumes could disrupt markets. Central banks across the world have turned on the money-supply taps, but investors and regulators are increasingly worried about a shortage of liquidity that they say could lead to severe disruption in financial markets.
• ObamaCare for Arms Control. The Iran nuclear deal has the same political weaknesses as the Affordable Care Act. The Iran nuclear deal is going to be the ObamaCare of arms-control agreements—a substantive mess undermined by a failure to build adequate political support. Next Tuesday is the deadline for completing the “political” terms of an agreement with Iran. “Technical” details arrive in June. From news reporting on the negotiations, it appears the agreement is turning into a virtual Rube Goldberg machine, a patchwork of fixes that its creators will claim somehow limits Iran’s nuclear breakout period to “a year.”

Fox News:

• New rift opens between Obama, Netanyahu after election victory. (video) After staying mum on Israeli issues in the run-up to the election, the White House on Wednesday broke its silence -- answering Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's victory with fresh criticism and making clear that a new rift has opened between U.S. and Israeli leaders, this time over Palestinian statehood.

MarketWatch.com:

• Why the American Dream is unraveling, in 4 charts.  (graph)

Zero Hedge:

• Here Is Why The Fed Can't Hike Rates By Even 0.25%. (graph)
• Greek Bank Deposit Outflows Spike As Capital Controls Concern Spreads. (graph)
• "A Chaotic Balance Of Terror" - The Greek Government's Four Scenarios.
• Just One Chart. (graph)
• Fed Growth Cut Unleashes Panic Buying Of Everything; Dollar Plunges Most Since 2009. (graph)
• Pushing On A String: The Fed's Spectacular Failure To Stimulate Housing. (graph)
• "Bulletproof" Fortescue Pulls $2.5 Billion Offering Amid Slumping Iron Ore Prices.
• Obama Administration Sets New Record For Censoring & Denying-Access-To Government Documents.

Business Insider:

• Yahoo(YHOO) just pulled out of China and axed at least 200 employees.
• Putin just made a huge decision that may explain his strange disappearance.
• A Russia-Ukraine peace plan just hit another snag. A peace plan to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine came under renewed strain on Wednesday, with Ukraine and Russia clashing publicly over the next steps and further Ukrainian military casualties from rebel attacks testing a fragile ceasefire.

Reuters:

• Target(TGT) to lift minimum wage to $9 an hour, matching rivals. Target Corp next month will raise the minimum wage for all of its workers to $9 an hour, matching moves made by rivals including Wal-Mart Stores Inc and TJX Cos, a source familiar with the matter said. The move comes in the face of pressure from labor groups and allies calling for a "living wage" at retailers and fast-food companies across the country, as well as the lowest unemployment rate in more than six years. Target shares fell 1 percent in extended trade. The company has said it does not disclose wage levels.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 -4.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.5 -2.25 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (LEN)/.45
• (MIK)/.74
• (TECD)/2.03
• (VNCE)/.27
• (CTRP)/.09
• (MFRM)/.48
• (NKE)/.84

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Current Account Deficit for 4Q is estimated at -$104.1B versus -$100.3B in 3Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 293K versus 289K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2400K versus 2418K prior. 

10:00 am EST

• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for March is estimated to rise to 7.0 versus 5.2 in February.
• The Leading Index for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in January.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Tarullo speaking, Swiss trade balance data, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for March and the (TSLA) Range Press Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Dovish Fed Commentary, Euro/Oil Bounce, Less US High-Yield Debt Angst, Homebuilding/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.22 +3.58%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.65 +.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.71 -.65%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.71 +2.29%

• ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -20.22%

• Total Put/Call 1.08 +12.50%

• NYSE Arms .93 -15.84% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.34 -1.12%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 736.0 -5.59%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.42 +4.52%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.20 +6.71%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.82 +1.55%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 421.46 +.19%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.99 +.05%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.50 -1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 22.50 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 139.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.48/Metric Tonne -2.58%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -71.90 +.1 point
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.50 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .6 -1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 +8.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +58 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Tsipras Strikes Defiant Tone With Greek Wall of Dignity. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras struck a defiant tone over Greece’s bailout ahead of a meeting in Brussels with European leaders, a stance broadly supported by the cash-strapped country’s citizens. “People have asked us to put an end to austerity and bailout agreements, to begin the process of reclaiming the dignity of the nation,” Tsipras said in a speech Wednesday in Athens. “We respond today, tomorrow and on Friday in parliament by building a wall of sovereignty and dignity.” 
• IMF Considers Greece Its Most Unhelpful Client Ever. International Monetary Fund officials told their euro-area colleagues that Greece is the most unhelpful country the organization has dealt with in its 70-year history, according to two people familiar with the talks. In a short and bad-tempered conference call on Tuesday, officials from the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Commission complained that Greek officials aren’t adhering to a bailout extension deal reached in February or cooperating with creditors, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the call was private. The IMF’s press office had no immediate comment on the discussions.  
• Putin Says Russian People Showed ‘Amazing Patriotism’ on Crimea. Russians and Ukrainians are “one people,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told a rally in Moscow marking the anniversary of the takeover of Crimea. The Russian people showed “amazing discipline, amazing patriotism” in supporting the return of Crimea to its homeland a year ago, Putin told the rally on Wednesday near the Kremlin attended by 110,000 people, according to police. “When it comes to Crimea it is not just about some territory, even a strategic one,” Putin said to cheers from the crowd. “It is about millions of Russian people, millions of our compatriots, who need our help and support. It is about something which makes us a united people and nation.” 
• Russia Accuses Ukraine of Breaching Truce Deal Amid Clashes. Russia accused Ukraine of breaching a cease-fire agreement by assigning a special status to its easternmost regions as skirmishes continued in conflict areas. Ukrainian lawmakers approved motions on Tuesday that envisage self-governance for the rebel-held territories, while appealing to the United Nations and the European Union to send peacekeepers. They also passed a separate decree declaring some Donbas areas an “occupied” territory. That move may undermine the peace process and lead to destabilization, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
• Frankfurt Flares as Anti-Austerity Protesters Rage Against ECB. Police vehicles burning in the streets, helicopters circling above, cobblestones ripped from pavements and used as missiles, tossed garbage containers, and the smell of smoke and burning rubber pervading the air. In scenes resembling a war zone, commuters in Frankfurt were greeted with a trail of destruction running through the euro area’s financial capital on Wednesday as thousands of demonstrators descended on the city to protest against austerity measures and monetary policy actions by the European Central Bank.  
• Easy Money Drives Investors Into Stocks, Company Debt, BIS Says. Monetary stimulus around the world is increasing the amount of government bonds with yields below zero, and that’s pushing investors into stocks and corporate debt, the Bank for International Settlements said. European equity funds registered a cumulative inflow of almost $19 billion in the four weeks following the European Central Bank’s announcement in January that it would start buying government bonds, the BIS said in a report published today. That’s the most ever recorded for a similar period, it said. Flows into European high-yield corporate bond funds over the four weeks were the highest in a year, the BIS said. 
• European Stocks Rise as U.K. Shares Climb After Osborne’s Budget. European stocks climbed as U.K. shares rallied after a budget presentation and Swedish equities jumped after a rate cut. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.3 percent to 398.65 at the close of trading, erasing earlier losses of as much as 0.4 percent.
• Brazilian Real Leads Global Decline on Concern Rating May Be Cut. Brazil’s currency led global declines as a meeting between government officials and Fitch Ratings fed concern the nation’s investment-grade credit grade could be cut. Fitch cited challenges the government faces to rein in spending and shore up fiscal accounts when it said earlier this week that it’s reviewing the country’s rating. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy will stress his commitment to meeting budget targets and sparking growth in the meeting Wednesday, according to a person close to the government’s economic team who isn’t authorized to speak publicly and asked not to be identified.
• Here's a Look at How the Dollar Is Clobbering Other Currencies Around the World. (graph) A great look at the losers.  
• Oklahoma Hiring Freeze Shows No Letup in Oil States’ Fiscal Pain. Oklahoma, the fifth-largest oil-producing state, froze hiring and salaries and is considering tapping reserves with crude prices down almost 60 percent since June. Revenue projections dwindled by more than $300 million from December to February, more than doubling to $611 million the budget deficit that Republican Governor Mary Fallin and lawmakers have to plug for the year starting July 1, state documents show.
• Surprising Natural Gas Output Has BofA Bracing for Sub-$2 Prices. Relentless U.S. production gains that caught many natural gas traders by surprise have triggered a 30 percent plunge in prices since November. Bank of America Corp. says the selloff isn’t over and is telling clients to brace for the possibility of sub-$2 prices for the first time in three years. Gas output will climb to an all-time high of 78.39 billion cubic feet a day this year, an increase of 50 percent over 2005, led by shale reservoirs in Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Texas, government data show.
• FedEx(FDX) Falls After Profit Forecast Narrowed on Currency, Bonuses. FedEx Corp. fell the most in almost two months after the world’s largest cargo airline trimmed the top range of its full-year profit forecast and pared its projection for global economic growth. Earnings will be $8.80 to $8.95 a share in the fiscal year ending May 31, the Memphis, Tennessee-based company said in a statement Wednesday. FedEx had reiterated a forecast of $8.50 to $9 a share on Jan. 23. Analysts estimated $8.98 on average. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Live Blog: Fed Decision and Janet Yellen’s Press Conference.
• U.S. to Examine Leveraged Loans More Frequently. ‘Shared National Credit’ Exams to occur twice annually instead of once as regulators step up scrutiny of buyout deals.

CNBC:

• US rate-storm brews, get set for another 'tantrum'. (video) Emerging markets have every right to feel nervous before Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, with the central bank widely tipped to pave the way for a rate hike this year.

ZeroHedge:

• ECB Prepares For Grexit, Anticipates 95% Loss On Greek Debt. (graph)
• European Bond Risk Spikes Most Since 2011 As "Graccident" Looms. (graph)
• A Reminder Of The Fed's Interest Rate Conundrum.
• Dollar Demand = Global Economy Has Skidded Over The Cliff. (graph)
• WTI Slumps As Cushing Inventory & Production Hit New Record High. (graph)
• Crash Landing: China Home Prices Plunge At Fastest Pace On Record, Surpass Post-Lehman Collapse. (graph)
• Sweden Slides Further Into NIRP: Cuts To -0.25%; Expands QE. (graph)
• Unequivocally Good? Canadian Wholesale Trade Sales Crash By Most Since Jan 2009. (graph)
• Just One Chart. (graph)
• How Far Will The Euro Fall? (graph)

Business Insider: 

• At least 21 are dead after an attack on a leading museum in Tunisia.
• Iran is creating an 'arc of power' across the Middle East.
• Putin just got one step closer to taking over part of Georgia.
• The Russian auto market is imploding.
• Syria is imposing red lines on the US-led air war on ISIS.
• Russia is putting state-of-the-art missiles in its westernmost Baltic exclave.

Manager Magazin:

• ECB Ran Models on Debt Impact of Greek Exit. ECB staff calculated Greek government debt would fall to 5% of nominal value in case of disorderly exit from euro. If Greece manages to negotiate a debt reduction without leaving the euro, debt would retain a quarter of its nominal value.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.50%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Agriculture -1.07% 2) Retail -1.01% 3) Road & Rail -.81%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• SQM, RSPP, NKTR, ADBE, PAM, BGC, USG, TUES, BPT, CEN, LRCX, IRBT, VA, HNRG, ZBRA, CBPX, NAV, SWM, FDX, FDS, PHI, VEC, PFG, WYNN and ASML
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DHR 2) EPI 3) FDX 4) CLF 5) IYR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FDX 2) NAV 3) ADBE 4) STJ 5) WYNN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.11%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +.47% 2) Software +54% 3) Hospitals +.35%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HUBS, RTRX, HLF, AKRX, JMEI, STLD, AVID and ROVI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RAD 2) DNKN 3) AKRX 4) HLF 5) KRFT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) P 2) ORCL 3) RAD 4) GGP 5) PDCO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume