Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 15.8 +7.0%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.44 -.04%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.57 +1.93%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.71 -1.34%
- ISE Sentiment Index 66.0 -8.33%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.49 +.29%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,014.0 -.20%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.09 -.57%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.90 +1.64%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.31 -.01%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 317.73 +.79%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.19 +.08%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -2.25 basis points
- TED Spread 25.0 +1.5 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
- Yield Curve 138.0 +6.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.36/Metric Tonne -.39%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.0 +1.9 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 52.30 -.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.2 +.4 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -101 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -3.65% 2) Semis -2.73% 3) Road & Rail -1.33%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- SCMP, WGO, SNDK, ASML, FRSH, WRLD, IBB, SGNT, CLDN, BIB, ENVA, SWKS, NEWT, CBMG, LRCX, SOXX, ZSPH, KITE, SWAY, MTSI, NXPI, CSH, JMEI, TSU, PTCT, UVE, ACAD, TGTX, ISIS, CSH, SWFT, SRNE, PTCT, DVAX, EPZM, SWKS, FRGI, CLDN, AFFX, ZLTQ, EXAS, INSM, MTSI, BDSI, RARE, AAVL and ENVA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) AMD 2) CCL 3) SNDK 4) DHI 5) DAL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) UNP 2) APOL 3) X 4) UPS 5) PBR
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver +1.28% 2) Computer Services +.59% 3) Oil Service +.33%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- DPLO, FIVE, RHT, ACN and ROVI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) FIVE 2) SGYP 3) IDCC 4) DG 5) QRVO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) RHT 2) CBI 3) SCHW 4) GRPO 5) DPS
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Saudi Arabia, Gulf Allies Starts Bombing Houthi Targets in Yemen. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies
started bombing Shiite Houthi targets in Yemen Thursday, the
Saudi ambassador to Washington said. The allies launched “the military operations in support of
the people of Yemen and their legitimate government,”
Ambassador Adel al-Jubair said in a statement. The military
strikes were started after an “appeal” from Yemen’s President
Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman ordered the
airstrikes at midnight local time, Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya
television reported. The bombing campaign comes after forces loyal to the rebel
group marched on Aden, the stronghold of the internationally
recognized President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi in the southern port
city of Aden. Hadi has left his residence in the city, Mohammed
Hadi, an aide, said. Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, has accused
Iran of fomenting unrest in Yemen.
- Yemen Government’s Fall Is Another Blow to Obama’s War on Terror. Escalating chaos in Yemen threatens the
Obama administration’s ability to combat the al-Qaeda affiliate
that’s most intent on attacking the U.S. and its allies. It was only last June that President Barack Obama singled
out Yemen as a model for U.S. efforts to fight terrorism by
relying on training allied forces rather than risk American
lives. Now the fall of the government and the turmoil there
further imperil his signature antiterrorist strategies, which
also are facing difficulties in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya
and elsewhere. “This is bad for counterterrorism,” said Daniel Benjamin,
a former State Department antiterrorism adviser. “There’s no
question there will be an effect on intelligence-gathering --
and a significant one.”
- A Murky, Sloppy Muddle: How Greece’s Exit From Euro Could Happen. With the fight to keep Greece in the euro
now in its sixth year, everyone is running out of patience. More
importantly, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government in
Athens is running out of money. While bond yields suggest investors expect Greece to stay
in the euro, economists such as UniCredit Bank AG’s Erik Nielsen
say it may be just a matter of time before he’s forced to print
a new currency. Adopting the euro was always supposed to be a one-way
ticket, so there is no legal precedent or political roadmap for
an exit. If you’re waiting for a formal announcement of a clear
resolution, you may be waiting a long time.
- China Bulls Adopt Price-to-Whatever Ratio as Equities Surge. The signs of a Chinese equity bubble are
visible just about everywhere Hao Hong looks. The chief China strategist at Bocom International Holdings
Co. points to soaring price-to-earnings ratios, the shrinking
yield advantage that stocks offer over bonds and the fact that
mainland-listed equities now trade at a 34 percent premium over
nearly identical shares in Hong Kong. So what’s Hong’s advice to investors? Keep buying, of course.
- Currency War Is Now a Dud as Windfall From Devaluations Vanishes. Currency wars, it turns out, may not be
worth fighting right now. While weaker exchange rates have at times throughout
history helped stoke economic growth by making countries’
exports cheaper, the benefits are becoming hard to find. Nowhere is this more apparent than in developing nations,
where currencies have slumped 24 percent on average against the
dollar since 2011. Yet despite this, their annual export growth
rate has actually slowed to 4 percent in the past four years
from 8 percent during the previous decade, according to the CPB
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. In Brazil, the
real’s 48 percent plunge since 2011 has done little to revive an
economy heading for its worst performance in 25 years.
- Tech Stock Selloff Continues in Asia; Oil Jumps on Yemen. Asian shares dropped the most in eight
weeks, led by technology shares after the Nasdaq Composite Index
tumbled in the U.S. Oil advanced after Saudi Arabia and its Gulf
Arab allies started bombing targets in Yemen.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 1.2 percent by 11 a.m. in
Tokyo, as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Apple Inc.
supplier AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. tumbled at least 3
percent. Japan’s Topix gauge fell the most since Jan. 6.
- Oil Rises on Mideast Disruption Risk as Saudi Arabia Bombs Yemen. Oil erased losses to rise for a fifth day in
New York as Saudi Arabia said it started bombing rebel targets
in Yemen with its allies. Futures gained as much as 1.4 percent to trade near $50 a
barrel, the highest intraday price since March 10. King Salman
ordered the airstrikes against Shiite Houthi positions after an
“appeal” from Yemen’s President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi, Saudi
Ambassador Adel al-Jubair said in Washington. Prices slid
earlier on Thursday after a U.S. government report showed crude
inventories and production swelling further last week to the
most in more than three decades.
- The Fed Still Needs to Figure Out How to Raise Rates. For all the talk about when Federal Reserve
policy makers are going to raise interest rates, they haven’t
quite figured out how to do it. The central bank has had trouble controlling near-term
borrowing costs since the 2008 financial crisis and has been
experimenting with ways to do so. While its main new tool has
enabled the Fed to exert more influence over money-market rates
in the past year, strategists from Barclays Plc to Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. say the program is too small to prevent rates from
falling when officials want them to climb. At issue is the Fed’s balance sheet, which has ballooned
through its bond buying, leaving over $2 trillion in excess
reserves in the banking system that may prove to be more
difficult to siphon off than in the past. New methods are needed
because the federal funds rate, long the central bank’s primary
policy instrument, has ceased to be an effective means to guide
short-term market rates.
Wall Street Journal:
- Saudi Arabia Launches Military Operations in Yemen. Saudi ambassador to U.S. says 10 countries participating in operations. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations launched airstrikes against
Houthi rebels in the Yemeni capital San’a in defense of what the Riyadh
government called the country’s legitimate government. The
airstrikes began hours after the country’s president, Abed Rabbo Mansour
Hadi, was forced to flee the southern port city of Aden by boat
after...
- Iran Stalls U.N. Probe Into Its Atomic Past. Talks over Iran’s
nuclear program have hit a stumbling block because Tehran has failed to
cooperate with a United Nations probe into whether it tried to build
atomic weapons in the past. Talks over Iran’s nuclear program have hit a stumbling block a week
before a key deadline because Tehran has failed to cooperate with a
United Nations probe into whether it tried to build atomic weapons in
the past, say people close to the negotiations. In response,
these people say, the U.S. and its diplomatic partners are revising
their demands on Iran to address these concerns before they agree to
finalize a...
- Buyout Firms Feel Pinch From Lending Crackdown. Regulatory guidance that
seeks to limit the use of borrowed money in takeovers has hampered the
business of debt-laden acquisitions. An effort by regulators to deter banks from financing takeovers with
high levels of debt has dealt a blow to the private-equity industry. After
resisting at first, banks have lately been falling in line with
guidance regulators set in 2013, which sought to limit how much debt
banks could extend for corporate takeovers. The shift is now stinging
private-equity firms, whose bread-and-butter business is debt-laden
buyouts.
- Obama’s Mideast Realignment. His new doctrine: Downgrade ties to Israel and the Saudis while letting Iran fill the vacuum left by U.S. retreat.
Let’s connect the dots. Data point No. 1: President Obama
withdrew U.S. forces from Iraq in 2011 and is preparing to leave
Afghanistan by the end of 2016, even while keeping a few more troops
there this year and next than originally planned. Point No. 2: The Obama
administration keeps largely silent about Iran’s power grab in...
Fox News:
- Bergdahl charged with desertion, could face life in prison. (video) Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, who was captured by the Taliban after
abandoning his post in Afghanistan and then freed five years later in a
controversial trade for five Guantanamo detainees, was charged Wednesday
with desertion. U.S. Army Forces Command announced the decision at Fort Bragg in North Carolina.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
LA Times:
- Iran-backed rebels in Yemen loot secret files about U.S. spy operations. Secret
intelligence files held by Yemeni security forces and containing
details of American intelligence operations in the country have been
looted by Iran-backed militia leaders, exposing names of informants and
plans for U.S.-backed counter-terrorism operations, U.S. officials say.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 +1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.75 +1.25 basis points.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 290K versus 291K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2400K versus 2417K prior.
9:45 am EST
- Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for March is estimated to fall to 57.0 versus 57.1 in February.
11:00 am EST
- Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for March is estimated at 1.0 versus 1.0 in February.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, German GFK data, Japan
CPI, $29B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index,
weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, CIBC Retail/Consumer
Conference, (CIEN) annual meeting, Johnson Rice Oilfield Services
Conference, (SRE) analyst conference and the (PLAB) investor day could
also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Volume: Slightly Above Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.76 +8.37%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.97 +.23%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.33 +.39%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.64 +2.70%
- ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 +3.90%
- Total Put/Call .99 -2.94%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.10 +2.09%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,023.0 +.69%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.85 -.27%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.53 -.40%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.32 +1.49%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 316.03 +1.32%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.10 +.06%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 23.5 -2.25 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 132.0 +1.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.81/Metric Tonne -.09%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.90 -4.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.10 +2.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.6 -4.3 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 +3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -166 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Euro Area Said to Give Greece Five Days to Deliver Plan. (video) Greece has until Monday to show how it will
follow through on reform commitments after the euro area ruled
out speedy access to aid funds, three officials said following a
conference call of finance ministry deputies. The currency bloc left the door open for Greece to access
1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) that has been allocated to aid
the banking system, if the cash-strapped nation can show how it
will move ahead with the changes that its creditors are seeking.
At the same time, the euro zone’s other 18 members were adamant
that Greece needs to deliver specific plans to see any more
bailout cash, the officials said.
- Ukraine Bonds Drop as Moody’s Adds to Default Concern Amid Talks. Ukraine’s Eurobond fell for a third day
after Moody’s Investors Service warned that the risk the country
will default on its debt is almost certain. The bonds dropped to a record 38.03 cents on the dollar on
Wednesday after Moody’s lowered the nation’s credit rating by
one step to Ca, the second-lowest level and on par with
Argentina. Ukrainian debt has handed investors losses of 30
percent this quarter, the worst among 59 emerging-market peers,
as investors speculated the former soviet republic’s creditors
will be forced to accept steep writedowns.
- Estonia Must Counter ‘Hostile’ Russian Propaganda, Adviser Says. Estonia’s plans for a Russian-language
television channel will seek to counter propaganda from the
regime of President Vladimir Putin amid tensions over the
Kremlin’s intentions in the Baltic region, according to a
government adviser.
- Sputtering Emerging Markets Threaten Next Global Deflation Shock. The momentum is fading. The cooling of emerging markets runs the
risk of chilling the global economy. The world’s growth engines after the 2008 financial crisis,
emerging markets are losing momentum as manufacturing in China
contracts and recessions loom in Brazil and Russia. At Credit Suisse Group AG, economists predict the expansion
of developing countries will slow to 3.8 percent this year, the
weakest since 2009. By contrast, they see a 2.2 percent pace in
industrial nations, the strongest in five years.
- Saudi Stocks Decline Most in World as Rebels in Yemen Advance. Saudi Arabian stocks dropped the most in
more than three months, leading regional markets lower, after
forces loyal to Yemen’s Shiite Muslim rebels edged closer to the
stronghold of Saudi-backed President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi. The Tadawul All Share Index was the world’s worst performer
among more than 90 measures tracked by Bloomberg after it fell 5
percent to close at 8,868.12, the steepest loss since Dec. 16.
The Bloomberg GCC 200 Index, a gauge of the Gulf Cooperation
Council’s top 200 equities, also dropped the most in more than
three months. Forces loyal to the president collapsed as rebels
moved deeper into the south toward the port city of Aden.
Violence in the Arabian Peninsula’s poorest country is
threatening to turn into a civil war, raising concerns that
neighbors including Saudi Arabia may be drawn into the conflict.
- Brazil Real Drops as Central Bank Plans to Pare Back Support. Brazil’s real dropped after the central
bank said it will scale back support for the currency. The real lost 0.4 percent to 3.1521 per dollar at 11:26
a.m. in Sao Paulo, extending its run as the worst performing
major currency this year. The real has lost 16 percent against
the dollar on concern that weakening fiscal accounts will cause
the country to lose its investment-grade credit rating.
Officials will stop swap auctions that had bolstered the
currency at the end of this month, the central bank said in a
statement Tuesday.
- Emerging-Market Stocks Halt Seven-Day Advance as China Retreats. Emerging-market stocks ended their longest
rally in seven months amid concern slowing growth in China is
hurting corporate earnings and South Africa may raise interest
rates this year.
Shares in Shanghai fell for the first time in 11 days,
ending the longest winning streak in 23 years. The Shanghai Composite
Index fell 0.8 percent, after a 10-day, 12 percent rally, the longest
winning streak since May
1992.
- Europe Stocks Post Worst Drop in Two Months After Nearing Record. European stocks posted their worst drop in
more than two months, after nearing a record on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 1.1 percent to 397.95 at
the close of trading, as all but two of 19 industry groups slid.
Technology shares posted the worst performance, extending losses
as U.S. peers also fell. ARM Holdings Plc and ASML Holding NV
lost more than 5.5 percent. Europe’s benchmark gauge closed 0.7 percent away from its
2000 record on Tuesday, up 18 percent for the year amid European
Central Bank stimulus. That pushed the Stoxx 600 to the highest
valuation based on projected profits in at least 10 years,
relative to its own history and to the Standard & Poor’s 500
Index, data show.
- Oil Rises After U.S. Crude Output Gain Shrinks, Dollar Slips. Oil rose to a two-week high in New York as
the shrinking size of U.S. crude production gains and a falling
dollar outweighed rising supply. U.S. crude production rose 3,000 barrels a day to 9.42
million in the seven days ended March 20, the Energy Information
Administration said. The smallest increase since January left
output at the highest level in more than three decades. Prices
retreated initially as the report showed that crude supplies
increased 8.17 million barrels to 466.7 million last week, the
most in records compiled since August 1982. U.S. oil explorers sidelined 41 drilling rigs last week,
the smallest drop in three weeks and down from the average 59-rig weekly decline in February, according to data from Baker
Hughes Inc.
- Strong Dollar Hurting U.S. Steel Mills as Imports Flood Market. The U.S. economic recovery is gaining steam
and the dollar has surged. That’s bad news for the $100 billion
domestic steel industry. Foreign competitors with weaker currencies pay less to
produce the metal. That’s allowing them to undercut U.S.
steelmakers in their own backyard as demand wanes in China,
Russia and Brazil. The result: the amount of imported steel used in the U.S.
has swelled in the first two months of 2015 to 33 percent from
28 percent in 2014, according to the American Iron and Steel
Institute. At the same time, idled production capacity at U.S.
mills has grown to 31 percent, the highest since 2009.
- Gold Heads for Longest Rally Since 2012 on Interest Rate Outlook. Gold headed for its longest rally since
August 2012 as signs of sputtering U.S. economic expansion
fueled bets that interest rates will stay low for longer. Spot prices climbed for a sixth straight session, rising
every day since Federal Reserve policy makers cut their
projections for growth and suggested they aren’t in a hurry to
raise borrowing costs. Higher rates usually send investors to
assets with better yield prospects such as equities and bonds.
Wall Street Journal:
- Boko Haram Abducts More Than 400 People, Says Nigerian Lawmaker. Islamist
extremists fleeing international military offensive aimed at
recapturing northeastern Nigeria. Boko Haram militants have abducted
more than 400 people—most of them
women and children—in recent weeks as the Islamist extremists have fled
an international military offensive aimed at recapturing northeast
Nigeria, a Nigerian lawmaker said Wednesday. The militants have
seized residents of the northeastern town of Damasak and its surrounding
villages since January, Nigerian Senator Maina Ma’aji Lawan said. Mr.
Lawan, who represents the region, said more than 70 women were taken
from his hometown of Baga alone.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
NY Times:
- Q. and A. With Fed’s Dennis Lockhart: The Year to Raise Rates. Dennis Lockhart just entered his ninth year as president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and during that time he has never voted to
raise interest rates. He took the job during the very early days of the
financial crisis, and he has never really had the chance. But that is
about to change. Mr. Lockhart said in an interview Monday that he
expected he would vote to start raising rates by September at the
latest.
Telegraph: