Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,061.02 -2.23%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,061.02 -2.23%

• DJIA 17,712.66 -2.29%

• NASDAQ 4,891.22 -2.70%

• Russell 2000 1,240.41 -2.05%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.13 -2.51% 

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 133.66 -3.36% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,613.67 -2.19%

• Russell 1000 Growth 992.04 -2.18%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,009.21 -2.21%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 501.02 -.44%

• Solactive US Cyclical 137.07 -2.39%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,002.85 -3.43%

• Transports 8,700.34 -4.89%

• Utilities 580.51 -2.49%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 116.06 -.58%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.38 -1.27%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,293.43 -.65%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.42 -.30%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 236,283 -.07%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -212 -328

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0% unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 206,887 -15.03%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,748,067 -.72%

• Total Put/Call 1.06 +32.5%

• OEX Put/Call 1.96 +122.73%

• ISE Sentiment 91.0 -8.08%

• NYSE Arms 1.65 +120.0%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.07 +15.75%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.45 +8.65%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.69 +2.20%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.62 +2.21%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,654.50 -1.61%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.689 Trillion +.64%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.759 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 38.4 +41.5%

• AAII % Bears 24.4 -22.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 215.16 +.49%

• Crude Oil 48.87 +6.89%

• Reformulated Gasoline 179.80 +.41%

• Natural Gas 2.64 -5.21%

• Heating Oil 172.75 -.06%

• Gold 1,199.80 +1.53%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 173.06 +2.08%

• Copper 276.75 +.60%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 53.14 USD/Ton -2.78%

• Lumber 282.60 +.97%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,116.86 -1.33%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -3.2% +50 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0693 n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.9 +.47%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.90 +9.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 52.10 +12.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.4 -.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 50.0% chance of no change, 50.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 97.39 -.52%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.53 -.10%

• Yield Curve 137.0 +2.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.96% +3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.442 Trillion -.35%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.51 -7.36%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 179.0 +.07%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.22 +1.97%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 62.10 +2.40%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 346.87 -1.24%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.0 +1.32%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 355.0 +3.01%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 401.64 -13.43%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.22 +.02%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78% +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 24.25 -2.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 -2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.0 -1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.64 +2.83%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,006.0 -1.97%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 66.08 +2.77%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 316.64 -1.67%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 90.0 +2.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.974 Trillion -.19%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,032.0 +.70%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 297,000 -7,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.69% -9.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 437.10 +9.47%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.5 +1.3 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.70% +10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.43/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 598.0 +1.18%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,010.39 -2.31%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,854 +1.34%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -2.3%

Leading Sectors

• Foods +3.0%

• Tobacco +1.3%

• Oil Service +.9%

• Homebuilders +.5%

• Construction -.7%

Lagging Sectors

• Semis -5.0% 

• Biotech -5.2%

• Disk Drives -6.8%

• Road & Rail -6.9%

• Education -10.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)

• KFX, KRFT, RALY, DPLO, HCHC, FIVE, ABMD, CALA, FRSH, RHT, MGRC, OVAS, KBH, MFRM, REX, MKC, AMSWA and DRI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (20)

• VRTV, SONC, SAAS, IHS, AAL, SXC, GTN, WGO, KSU, SJW, HGR, NSM, SGNT, FPRX, ENVA, WRLD, ZFGN, ZSPH, SNDK and APOL

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Central Bank Hopes, Short-Covering, Less European Debt Angst, Biotech/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
• Sector Performance: Mixed
• Volume: Below Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -1.9%
  

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.86 +.27%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.62 +.66%
  

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.97 +1.98%
  

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +42.42%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.11 +14.43%
  

• NYSE Arms 1.93 +55.28% 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.66 +.16%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,005.0 -1.05%
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.29 -1.20%
  

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.12 -3.41%
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.1 +1.28%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 316.65 -.26%
• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.22 +.03%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.50 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 24.25 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 138.0 unch.
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $53.14/Metric Tonne -4.0%
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.9 -2.9 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 52.10 -.2 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.4 +1.8 points
  

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 -3.0 basis points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +60 open in Japan
  

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
  

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/retail/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.22%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -3.40% 2) Steel -2.04% 3) Disk Drives -1.64%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• SCAI, HCHC, CPF, OVAS, BIS, MSM, HPTX, STWD, UIHC, SGNT, SNDK, RUSHA, SMTC, AXS, ROVI, DPLO, GME, DIOD, YOKU, SCCO, EMC, NSM, NEOG, WCC, EGL and STWD
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JIVE 2) EXC 3) MON 4) EMR 5) DXJ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EMC 2) SNDK 3) POWI 4) STRA 5) UPS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.34%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +1.86% 2) Airlines +1.49% 3) HMOs +.89%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GLOB, OLN, BMRN, KRFT, CCL, SWKS, RCL, ESPR, RCPT, SCMP, KITE, NCLH and AXLL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CCL 2) MAT 3) OHRP 4) BMRN 5) SE
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SLI 2) CONN 3) SHLM 4) DOW 5) CCL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Monday Deadline for Greece. (video)

• Japan's Inflation Gauge Halts at Zero in February. The Bank of Japan’s key inflation gauge ground to a halt as consumer spending slumped, highlighting weakness in the nation’s recovery from recession. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2 percent in February from a year earlier, less than a median estimate of 2.1 percent. The central bank’s measure that strips out last year’s sales-tax increase showed inflation at zero. 

• Banks Slash Dividends as Loans Sour From Beijing To Pearl River. China’s biggest banks are accelerating cuts to their dividend payouts as bad debts pile up from struggling exporters in the Pearl River Delta, coal companies in the nation’s west and manufacturers in the Bohai Rim near Beijing. Three of the nation’s four largest banks, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., this week cut their payment ratios for 2014 by the most in three years. ICBC’s fell to 33 percent from 35 percent a year earlier. The smaller China Citic Bank Corp. last week eliminated its payment altogether.

• Co-Pilot Focus in Crash Probe Intensifies Hunt for Data Recorder. Crash investigators are rushing to find the onboard data recorder from Germanwings Flight 9525 to confirm prosecutors’ suspicions that the co-pilot steered the jet into a mountain after locking the captain out of the cockpit. Audio files from the flight deck revealed that the co-pilot began descending after the captain stepped into the cabin, then denied him re-entry, prosecutor Brice Robin said in Marseille, France. Except for his breathing, the co-pilot stayed silent until the plane slammed into a slope at full speed, Robin said.  

• TSMC Drops as Weakening Smartphone Market Threatens Chip Demand. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. fell for a fifth day in Taipei trading, its longest losing streak in two years, after at least four analysts published reports saying a stronger U.S. dollar may weaken smartphone chip demand. The shares dropped 1 percent to NT$144 as of 10:58 a.m. in Taipei, widening the decline this week to 6.5 percent. Taiwan’s benchmark Taiex, of which TSMC is the largest member, fell 0.8 percent.

• Asian Stocks Decline for Second Day to Head for Weekly Retreat. Asian stocks fell for a second day, adding to the biggest daily drop in almost two months, as industrial shares led declines and most Japanese equities went ex-dividend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent to 147.10 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure headed for a 0.3 percent decline this week after sliding 1.1 percent on Thursday.

• Oil Prices Will Drift Back Lower: Luschini. (video)

• North American Railroads Caught by Speed of Crude-Oil Collapse. The slowdown that North American railroad companies had been bracing for in crude oil shipments has turned into a rout, with volumes falling faster than executives had predicted. With energy companies scaling back drilling after prices for the commodity fell about 50 percent since July, industry executives and analysts anticipated that demand for hauling crude and extraction materials such as frac sand and pipes would slow after a four-year surge. They didn’t expect it to slow this much this fast.

Wall Street Journal:

• Obama Struggles With a Messy Middle East. Latest fighting in Yemen complicates relations with Iran as ties with allies are strained. The Middle East has descended into a state of disarray unusual even for that troubled region, imperiling President Barack Obama’s policy dreams and leaving him with limited ability to control events. The latest complication has erupted in Yemen, where rebel forces backed by Iran have driven out the country’s president and are expanding their control southward across the country. The prospect that those Shiite rebels might succeed in taking over a neighboring...

• Obama’s Mideast Vacuum. The Saudis invade Yemen as the Sunni-Shiite war escalates. An abiding goal of President Obama’s foreign policy has been to reduce America’s role in the Middle East, in the belief that it would lead to greater stability and serve U.S. interests. Has a policy ever been so thoroughly repudiated in so short a time? Mr. Obama has succeeded in his retreat, but the vacuum he’s left has produced a region on fire that is becoming a broad Sunni-Shiite war.

• The Campus Climate Crusade. Liberal groups are out to sully the names of conservative professors and shut down programs funded by the Koch foundation. Conservative thought on campus these days is rare, though for some it’s still not rare enough. Witness the growing campaign by politicians, unions and environmentalists to intimidate into silence any academic or program that might challenge liberal ideology.

MarketWatch.com:

• China stocks may be in serious bubble. As market volumes explode, even teenagers are buying. Some say that when the average “mom-and-pop” retail investors get back into the stock market, it could be time to get out. But what about when even teenagers start buying? China has entered a new stock frenzy, like something out of America in the Roaring 20s or the dottiest days of the dot-com bubble, with trading volumes continuing to push to new record highs.

Zero Hedge:

• Another Oligarch Preaches To The Peasants: Charlie Munger Says "Prepare For Harder World".

• China Hard Landing: Blame The Smog. (graph)

• Japanese Government Bonds Are Crashing - Biggest Surge in Yields In 2 Years. (graph)

• Did Saudi Arabia Just Suffer Its Largest Foreign Capital Flight In 15 Years? (graph)

• China's Demographic Destiny Disaster (In 2 Simple Charts).

• Treasury Collateral Shortage Crosses The Atlantic, Makes European Landfall. (graph)

• The US Housing Bubble In One Chart: Home Prices Outpace Wage Growth 13:1. (graph) 

• China's Stock Bubble Leaves BNP Speechless: "What Happens Next Is An Unknown-Unknown". (graph)

• Why Is Russia Building Massive Underground Bomb Shelters?

• 3 Things: No Money, Wall Street's Big Scam, Bottom 80%. (graph)

• That Ain't No Margin Debt: THIS Is Margin Debt. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Saudi Arabia's new coalition has already shifted the tide in the Middle East.

• How the tech boom could end.

• Yahoo(YHOO) adds $2 billion to its share buyback program.

• GameStop shares are getting whacked after earnings miss expectations.

• What just happened in Yemen is 'a nightmare' for the US military.

Evening Recommendations 
Morgan Stanley:

• Rated (YHOO) Overweight, target $55.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.25 -.5 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures +.39%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BBRY)/-.05

• (CCL)/.10

• (FINL)/.85

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.4% versus a +2.2% prior estimate.

• 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +4.4% versus a prior estimate of a +4.2% gain.

• 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% prior estimate.

• 4Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a prior estimate of a +1.1% gain.

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich Consumer Sentiment for March is estimated at 92.0 versus a prior estimate of 91.2.

 Upcoming Splits

• (GIL) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's Fischer speaking and the China industrial profits report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.