Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Homebuilders -1.82% 2) Gold & Silver -1.31% 3) REITs -1.05%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- OCUL, GEL, ABGB, SHG, EVR, HPP, GM, OHI, CBMG, ATHN, TRIL, RCPT, PBF, QUNR, SHLM, ES, WWD, DEI, LPLA, ELLI, OVAS, VIAB, RBC, BIS and CNMD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) KSS 2) APA 3) JNPR 4) KRE 5) ALTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) AXP 2) UBNT 3) EVR 4) BBBY 5) WWD
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Biotech +1.77% 2) Oil Service +1.22% 3) Airlines +.83%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- AXTA, WBAI, CMCM, CLVS, ASPS, IGT, GBX, ATHM, SPLK, NRZ and INFA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) EPI 2) VGK 3) APOL 4) MYL 5) DUK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) PAY 2) SPLK 3) FDX 4) LUV 5) COP
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Soviet-Era Survival Kicks in for Ukrainians in Rebel Wasteland. Life inside Ukraine’s pro-Russian breakaway republics hinges on a shadow
economy flourishing amid the cease-fires, embargoes and severed supply
lines of a yearlong war. The shortages underscore the difficulties
rebels and their backers in the Kremlin face in establishing a semblance
of normality as they seek to cement their rule. They also highlight the
mounting costs of the war as the government in Kiev starts
debt-restructuring talks.
- China’s Bond Market May Face Second Default. (video)
- Samsung Profit Beats Estimates With Demand Rising for Its Chips and Displays. Samsung Electronics Co. posted profit that beat analysts’ estimates
as rising demand for memory chips and displays more than offset a slump
in smartphones. Operating income fell 31 percent to 5.9 trillion won ($5.4 billion)
in the three months ended March, the Suwon, South Korea-based company
said in a filing Tuesday. That compares with the 5.5 trillion won
average of 36 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The shares rose.
- FedEx(FDX) Said to Be in Talks to Buy TNT to Expand Europe Deliveries. FedEx Corp. is in discussions to acquire financially struggling
Dutch logistics company TNT Express NV to expand package deliveries in
Europe, people familiar with the matter said. An agreement may be announced this week, said one of the people, who
asked not to be identified because the details are private. Talks are
continuing, and it’s still possible no accord may be reached, the people
said. TNT’s market value as of April 2 was 3.29 billion euros ($3.6
billion).
- Dollar’s Drop Is Cue to Start Buying for World’s Best Forecaster. It’s time for investors who bailed on the dollar in the past few
weeks to get back in, says the most-accurate currencies forecaster. The greenback has tumbled 4.4 percent versus the euro since touching a
12-year high last month amid speculation the Federal Reserve will delay
raising interest rates, in part because the dollar’s strength is
hurting U.S. economic growth. That concern is overblown, according to
ING Groep NV, which topped Bloomberg’s rankings of foreign-exchange
analysts for the second quarter in a row.
- Aussie Within a Cent of Six-Year Low as Yield Falls on Rate Bets. Australia’s dollar traded within a cent of an almost six-year low
amid speculation the central bank will cut its key interest rate to an
unprecedented low on Tuesday. Three-year government bond yields dropped to a record as swaps
traders priced in a better than 70 percent chance the Reserve Bank of
Australia will reduce the overnight cash rate target by a quarter
percentage point to 2 percent. Economists are less convinced: 17 of 30
surveyed by Bloomberg News predict that the central will keep rates
unchanged. The Aussie rose Tuesday after a report showed that February
retail sales climbed more than expected.
- Asia Stocks Follow U.S. Rally as Tech, Consumer Companies Gain. Asian stocks rose, following a rally in U.S. equities, after
comments by a Federal Reserve official fueled optimism that policy
makers in the world’s largest economy will hold interest rates lower for
longer.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.2 percent to 149.02 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo.
- Gold Bust Means Less Mine Spending. The biggest gold bust in three decades is about to end a six-year expansion in mine output. From Russia to South Africa to North America, the biggest producers
saw profits turn to losses as prices plunged, forcing them to cut
spending on mines in half over three years. While bullion output will
probably reach a record in 2015, the increase will be the smallest in at
least six years, before production drops 1 percent in 2016, according
to Barclays Plc.
- Fed’s Lockhart Favors July-Sept. Liftoff on Weak Jobs Report. Federal
Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said while
recent economic weakness probably won’t persist, he favors pushing out
the central bank’s first rate increase beyond the next two meetings. “I
would probably be biased toward the July or September dates as
opposed to June,” Lockhart, who votes on monetary policy this year, said
in an interview Monday. “We will have more data and we will give the
economy a little more time to prove out the thesis that I laid out, that
the first quarter was anomalous again, just like a year ago.”
- United(UNH), Humana(HUM) Get Surprise Medicare Revenue Boost From U.S. Health
insurers such as UnitedHealth Group Inc. and Humana Inc. will
see revenue for commercial Medicare policies increase 1.25 percent
next year, reversing an earlier U.S. government proposal that would have
cut payments. The announcement was a surprise, since the U.S. has
been reducing payments to insurers as it seeks to bring the cost of
privately managed Medicare coverage in line with the government-run
version of the program for the elderly and disabled. Payments are
already falling 4 percent this year, and in February the U.S. proposed
an 0.9 percent reduction for 2016.
Wall Street Journal:
- Israel, U.S. Lawmakers Press Case Against Iran Deal. Moves signal fresh domestic and international pressure on negotiations leading up to a summer deadline. Israeli officials and congressional Republicans on Monday set high
bars with exacting conditions for a nuclear accord with Iran, signaling
fresh domestic and international pressure on negotiations leading up to a
summer deadline. Leading Arab governments, including Saudi
Arabia, cautiously accepted the landmark diplomacy with Iran, in their
most detailed reactions yet. But Saudi officials said they...
- Skin Cancer Removal With Miniaturized Radiation. Many patients prefer the new X-ray treatment to surgical procedures.
- Oil Shipments by Rail Take Slow Track. Safety concerns, low crude prices depress train traffic.
Fox News:
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
Economic Information Daily:
- China LGFV Private-Public Fund Raising May Be Risky. Some local
govt funding vehicles are improperly raising funds under the name of
public-private partnership which may bring risks, citing people familiar
with the matter. LGFVs have been banned participating in PPP projects
as private companies, report says. Some LGFVs have participated in PPP
projects through joint ventures, report says, citing people from LGFVs.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 unch.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 58.25 -.26 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (GBX)/1.20
- (ISCA)/.29
- (SCHN)/-.10
- (PLAY)/.28
- (TISI)/.11
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for April is estimated to fall to 49.0 versus 49.1 in March.
- JOLTS Job Openings for February are estimated to rise to 5003 versus 4998 in January.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for February is estimated to rise to $12.250B versus $11.562B in January.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Eurozone Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, $24B
3-Year Treasury auction and the weekly US retail sales reports could
also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.46 -1.43%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.82 +.33%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.85 -2.48%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.07 -1.65%
- ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +64.71%
- Total Put/Call .88 -21.43%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.41 -2.37%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,112.0 -.54%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.43 n/a
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.34 -.53%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.21 -.63%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 298.57 -4.0%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.67 +.06%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 unch.
- TED Spread 26.25 +1.25 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 141.0 +4.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $47.08/Metric Tonne n/a
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.5 -9.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.70 +.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.5 -.4 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.85 +4.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +219 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/retail/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -.64% 2) Homebuilders -.52% 3) Airlines -.47%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- CBMG, DM, OVAS, MTB, MYRG, USAK, FIX, ABTL, ALTR, RCPT, MSI, GCI, HCHC, YRCW, APOL, KMX, YDLE, SPB, SSP, NNI, BIDU, LNN, SAFM, UAL and AGCO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) COP 2) HYG 3) EMR 4) BBBY 5) EWW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) SKYW 2) JNJ 3) CNX 4) AGCO 5) GRMN
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver +3.33% 2) Oil Service +1.55% 3) Utilities +1.41%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- QURE, EPAM, CWCO, TSLA, CLDN, CHMT, MAT, MTDR and EVEP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) SLCA 2) MTG 3) WWAV 4) GRPN 5) MAT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) MAT 2) LL 3) VMW 4) L 5) VTR
Charts:
