Bloomberg:
- Tsipras Tells Putin EU Sanctions on Russia Are Economic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Greek Prime Minister Alexis
Tsipras said they want to restore ties between their countries amid
signs of a schism among some European Union states on whether to
maintain sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. “Greece is a sovereign country with unalienable rights,” Tsipras said
after meeting with Putin in Moscow on Wednesday. The Greek premier said
he disagrees with the logic of sanctions, which he described as “an
economic war,” and called for “a new spring in ties between our
countries.”
- Merkel Ally Says Greece Is Free to Make Russian ‘Mistake’. A party ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel said raising
dependence on Russia is Greece’s “mistake” to make, though there’s no
reason to condemn any loan by the Kremlin to Europe’s most-indebted
state. Norbert Roettgen, a lawmaker with Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union
who is chairman of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee,
commented in a phone interview as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras
seeks closer ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a three-day
visit to Moscow.
- Dzhokhar Tsarnaev Convicted of 2013 Attack on Boston Marathon. Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was convicted of carrying out the biggest terror
attack on U.S. soil since 2001, as jurors in the Boston Marathon bombing
case now turn to the more difficult task of deciding whether he should
die.
- While the Shanghai Stock Market Keeps Surging, Some Investors Are Getting Out. Wednesday trading brought some puzzling signals from China’s equity
markets. On the one hand, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly exceeded
the psychologically important 4,000 threshold, before closing at 3994.81
for the day. On the other hand, Chinese mainland investors used their
entire 10.5 billion yuan daily quota to shift funds to Hong Kong.
- Russian Car Sales Have Utterly Collapsed. (graph) Consumer demand has disappeared.
- German Factory Orders Drop for Second Month. German factory orders unexpectedly fell for a second month in
February in a sign Europe’s largest economy is still prone to risks. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 0.9 percent
after a revised decline of 2.6 percent in January, data from the Economy
Ministry in Berlin showed on Wednesday. The typically volatile number
compares with a median estimate of a 1.5 percent increase in a Bloomberg
survey. Orders slid 1.3 percent from a year earlier.
- Europe Stocks Are Little Changed After Rising Above Record Close. European stocks, which surpassed a record close earlier, pared gains as oil extended losses.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added less than 0.1 percent to 404.66 at
the close of trading. It rose as much as 0.4 percent to 405.78 intraday,
surpassing the March 2000 level.
- Fed Officials Divided Over June Liftoff, FOMC Minutes Show. Federal Reserve policy makers last month were split over whether
they would raise interest rates in June, a debate that occurred before
recent disappointing payroll figures, minutes of their most recent
policy meeting showed. “Several participants judged that the economic
data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the
June meeting,” according to minutes of the March 17-18 Federal Open
Market Committee session released Wednesday in Washington.
Wall Street Journal:
- Post-Crisis Risk Casts a Darkening Shadow. Regulators’ banking safeguards drive an increasing amount of financial activity away from conventional venues. Squeezing risk out of the economy can be like pressing down on a
water bed: The risk often re-emerges elsewhere. So it goes with efforts
to make the financial system safer since the financial crisis. Officials
have forced banks to bulk up their capital buffers, ditch dangerous
lines of business and pay more than $100 billion in penalties for bad
behavior. As a result, risky...
- China to Build Pipeline From Iran to Pakistan. Long-thwarted project gets go-ahead as Islamabad anticipates lifting of sanctions on Iran.
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -2.36% 2) Oil Tankers -.70% 3) Oil Service -.70%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- BIP,
LGF, FLML, HUBS, PRTA, LBIO, AFAM, PNR, WHR, OVAS, BIS, TA, VRTS, TRCO,
TISI, SSP, SCHN, MCK, FDX, GEOS, CLDN, RENT, VMC, CWEI and AAC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) DO 2) AKS 3) BBY 4) VMW 5) CMI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) DOW 2) SCHN 3) T 4) COP 5) ANGI
Charts:
NYSE:
- Volume 6.8% Below 100-day average
- 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
- 56.4% of Issues Advancing, 40.2% Declining
- 96 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Biotech +1.99% 2) Airlines +1.29% 3) Internet +.89%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ZEP, WB, DYAX, EYES, VNET, RGLS, SINA, WBAI, YY, GPN, SIMO, NOAH, YOKU, SCMP, TGI, COUP, MYL and RCPT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) AIG 2) S 3) ETP 4) XOMA 5) ASHR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) LULU 2) QLYS 3) VC 4) SPLK 5) ALGT
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Russian Hackers Targeted White House Data. Russian hackers were behind an intrusion in recent months into a non-classified White House computer network, CNN reported. Deputy White House National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes said on CNN
that no classified information had been compromised, while declining to
link any attacks to Russia. “We do not believe our classified systems were compromised,” Rhodes
said Tuesday. He said the White House is “constantly updating” its
unclassified system and that personnel are told to act as if information
on that network could be compromised by hackers. U.S. intelligence officials say the pace and sophistication of
Russian-sponsored attacks have increased as tension over Ukraine has
grown and the U.S. has imposed economic sanctions on Russia.
- North Korea Can Miniaturize a Nuclear Weapon, U.S. Says. North Korea has deployed its new road-mobile KN-08 intercontinental
ballistic missile and is capable of mounting a miniaturized nuclear
warhead on it, the U.S.’s top homeland security commander said. “Our assessment is that they have the ability to put a nuclear weapon
on a KN-08 and shoot it at the homeland,” Admiral William Gortney, the
head of the U.S. Northern Command, told reporters Tuesday at the
Pentagon. “We have not seen them do that” and “we haven’t seen them test
the KN-08.”
- U.S. Dot-Com Bubble Was Nothing Compared to Today’s China Prices. The world-beating surge in Chinese technology stocks is making the
heady days of the dot-com bubble look almost tame by comparison. The industry is leading gains in China’s $6.9 trillion stock market,
sending valuations to an average 220 times reported profits, the most
expensive level among global peers. When the Nasdaq Composite Index
peaked in March 2000, technology companies in the U.S. had a mean
price-to-earnings ratio of 156. “Chinese technology stocks do resemble the dot-com bubble,” Vincent
Chan, the Hong Kong-based head of China research at Credit Suisse Group
AG, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, said in an interview on April 2.
“Given stocks fell 50 to 70 percent when that bubble burst in 2000,
these small-cap Chinese shares may face big corrections when this one
deflates.”
- Is China In the Middle of a Tech Bubble? (video)
- Chinese Developers Trim Sales Forecasts Amid Housing Doldrums. Chinese developers target lower growth for new-home sales this year,
as prospects for the real estate market remain in doubt even after the
government eased monetary policy and lifted curbs on housing purchases. Property companies are targeting median growth of 12.6 percent for
contract sales this year, less than 2014’s 16 percent annual gain, a
Bloomberg survey of 28 listed developers showed. The median of sales
were 42.2 billion yuan last year ($6.8b), short of the median target of
44 billion yuan.
- Asian Stocks Rise for Fifth Day as Material Shares Lead Advance. Asian stocks rose for a fifth day as material and health-care
companies advanced and investors await a Bank of Japan policy decision
and the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 149.21 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo.
Wall Street Journal:
- Israel, U.S. Lawmakers Press Case Against Iran Nuclear Deal. Moves
signal fresh domestic and international pressure on negotiations
leading up to a summer deadline. Israeli officials and congressional
Republicans on Monday set high
bars with exacting conditions for a nuclear accord with Iran, signaling
fresh domestic and international pressure on negotiations leading up to a
summer deadline. Leading Arab governments, including Saudi
Arabia, cautiously accepted the landmark diplomacy with Iran, in their
most detailed reactions yet. But Saudi officials said they needed more
assurances that Iran’s...
- South Carolina Police Officer Charged With Murder in Shooting of Motorist. White officer arrested after officials saw video of black man’s shooting.
- New Hedge Fund Strategy: Dispute the Patent, Short the Stock. Hayman Capital seeks to invalidate patents while betting on a drop in target’s shares. A well-known hedge-fund manager is taking a novel approach to making
money: filing and publicizing patent challenges against pharmaceutical
companies while also betting against their shares.
- The Iran Deal and Its Consequences. by Henry Kissinger and George P. Shultz. Mixing shrewd diplomacy with defiance of U.N. resolutions, Iran has turned the negotiation on its head.
Fox News:
- States flouting post-9/11 ID law, giving cards to illegal immigrants that mirror licenses. (video) After the 9/11 attacks, Congress passed the REAL ID Act to prevent
foreign nationals from fraudulently obtaining a U.S. driver's license --
by requiring that any ID issued based on unverifiable foreign documents
look different in "design or color" from an official driver's license. That way, TSA and other law enforcement would know the ID holder might not be who they say they are.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Gundlach: 'Fed wants to get off zero,' may hike rates in June. DoubleLine Capital Chief
Executive Jeffrey Gundlach said on Tuesday that the Federal
Reserve could raise interest rates in June if economic data stabilizes. "The
Fed wants to get off zero," Gundlach said on an investor and media
webcast. The weak March payrolls report may not be enough to deter an
interest-rate increase in mid-June, Gundlach said. "If the economy rolls
over again," the Fed will have bullets to cushion any kind of economic
weakness, Gundlach said.
- Investors pull $4 bln from hedge funds amid lackluster returns. Wealthy investors protested the
hedge fund industry's recent lackluster returns and high fees by
pulling a net $4 billion out of the $2.5 trillion industry
during the first two months of 2015, data released on Tuesday
show.
The number contrasts with the heady days of 2014 when
investors added $31.6 billion of new money in January and
February, research firms BarclayHedge and TrimTabs Investment
Research said.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China May Unveil Subsidy to Iron Ore
Producers Mid-April. Amount of domestic subsidy may be based on iron ore
quality or adopt fixed rate of 6 yuan/ton, citing industry participants.
China Business News:
- Chinese Economy Faces Increasing Downward Pressure. China has
plenty of room to support growth with policy reserves, citing an
unidentified NDRC official. 1Q economic indicators are unlikely to
surprise on the upside, the report cites a state researcher as saying.
Evening Recommendations
Citi:
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.0 -3.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 57.75 -.5 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (FDO)/.73
- (GPN)/1.11
- (RAD)/.08
- (AA)/.25
- (BBBY)/1.80
- (PIR)/.36
- (RECN)/.12
- (WDFC)/.72
- (APOG)/.43
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of
+3,280,000 barrels versus a +4,766,000 barre increase the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,520,000 barrels versus a
-4,258,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are
expected to rise by +330,000 barrels versus a +1,325,000 barrel gain the
prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.54%
versus a +.4% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
- Fed Minutes from March 17-18 FOMC Meeting.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Powell speaking, Eurozone retail sales report, German Factory
Orders report, $21B 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications
report, (UAL) operational data and the (COP) analyst meeting could also
impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.18 -3.80%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.18 -.12%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.83 +.10%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.30 +.56%
- ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 -5.56%
- Total Put/Call .98 +12.64%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.06 -2.66%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,094.0 -1.86%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.51 -2.80%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.83 -2.28%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.07 -.25%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 302.57 +1.13%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.87 +.17%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 -1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 25.75 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 137.0 -4.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $48.06/Metric Tonne +2.08%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -55.7 +.8 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 62.50 -1.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.6 +.1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87 +2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +235 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
