Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running 17.2% Below 100-day average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 50.4% of Issues Advancing, 46.4% Declining
• 65 New 52-Week Highs, 127 New Lows
• 39.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.3
• Vix 13.3
• Total Put/Call 1.0
• TRIN/Arms .69

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines 

Bloomberg:

• Morgan Stanley's Fragile Five Swells to Troubled 10 in Selloff. Forget the “Fragile Five.” These days, strategists at Morgan Stanley are worried about what could be called the “Troubled Ten.” That’s how many nations they say are particularly at risk since China devalued the yuan. While the analysts haven’t used the term themselves, it’s as good a description as any for the currencies -- from the Brazilian real to Peru’s sol and South Korea’s won -- which have trading ties making them susceptible to a slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy. “It’s all about vulnerability,” said Hans Redeker, the London-based global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley. “Major victims of the policy change this time are currencies of countries with high export exposure and export competitiveness with China.”

• China GDP Slower Than Official Data Helps Explain Stimulus Moves. China’s economy is growing more slowly than official data suggests and below potential, a Bloomberg survey indicates, helping explain why policy makers have stepped up stimulus and the move to boost exports with a weaker yuan. The economy expanded 6.3 percent in the first half, compared to the officially reported 7 percent, according to the median estimate of 11 economists surveyed last week. For the full year, a 6.6 percent pace was the median forecast of respondents, who were asked to nominate real growth rates, not what they expect the official data to show.   

• Japan’s Economy Contracts as Consumption, Investment Decline. Japan’s economy contracted last quarter as consumers and businesses cut spending and exports tumbled, putting pressure on the prime minister to return his focus to Abenomics. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 1.6 percent from January-March, ending two quarters of growth, the Cabinet Office said on Monday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a 1.8 percent drop. 

• Won Drops as Foreigners Sell Korean Equities Amid China Concern. The won fell as global funds pulled money from South Korean equities on concern China’s economic slowdown and currency devaluation will affect its trade partners. Foreigners were set to sell more local shares than they will buy for the eighth day, a run that’s resulted net outflows of more than $750 million this month. The Bank of Korea is due to hold a meeting Monday to discuss recent developments in China. South Korea will strengthen monitoring of capital flows and of China’s economy, the nation’s biggest export market, the Finance Ministry said in statement Thursday. The won declined 0.7 percent from Aug. 13 to 1,182.22 a dollar as of 10:31 a.m. in Seoul, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show.

• Soros-Like Attack on Malaysian Ringgit Revives Memories of ’98. The ringgit’s steepest slide since 1998 is evoking memories of the clash between then-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and hedge-fund manager George Soros. The currency slid 3.8 percent against the dollar last week as central bank Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said Thursday foreign-exchange reserves will need to be rebuilt after they fell below $100 billion for the first time since 2010. She ruled out introducing a currency peg or capital controls, the solutions Malaysia turned to 17 years ago when faced with a tumbling exchange rate. Mahathir blamed foreign investors for the demise of the ringgit and labeled Soros a “moron” for his part in it. “The fallout is reviving memories of hedge-fund attacks in the 1997/98 crisis,” Chua Hak Bin, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Singapore, said Friday in an interview. “We don’t think capital controls are likely, but cannot rule out the risk given the rapid depletion of foreign reserves.” 

• Euro-Area Outlook Dims for Economists as QE Impact Falls Short. Mario Draghi’s trillion-euro boost for the euro area isn’t proving sufficient to lift economists’ confidence in the region’s recovery. Barely a quarter of the respondents in a Bloomberg survey see the currency bloc’s outlook improving in the short term. That’s the lowest level since the European Central Bank started its stimulus program to buy 60 billion euros ($67 billion) a month of debt through September next year. The ECB has brought record-low borrowing costs, a flood of cash and an export-boosting currency drop to the euro area, yet economic growth unexpectedly slowed last quarter. Central bank policy makers have already expressed disappointment over the pace of the recovery and pledged to do more if needed, leaving some economists debating whether they’ll act. 

• Egypt Stocks Top Mideast Slump on Brotherhood Probe, Oil Drop. Egypt’s stocks led declines in Arab markets after the government froze assets of a company chairman with alleged ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and oil remained below $50 a barrel. Saudi equities also declined. Egypt’s EGX 30 Index declined 3.2 percent, the most in six weeks, to 7,625.76 at the close in Cairo. Juhayna Food Industries tumbled 7.5 percent and Talaat Moustafa Group Holding lost 5.2 percent. In Saudi Arabia, the Tadawul All Share Index decreased 2.5 percent, led by Jabal Omar Development Co.

• Asian Stocks Follow U.S Shares Higher as Japan Climbs After GDP. Asian stocks rose, tracking an advance in U.S. equities, as Japanese shares gained after data showed the economy contracted less than expected. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index climbed 0.1 percent to 138.43 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo after the measure sank 2 percent last week for a fourth weekly decline. 

• Iron Ore Rally Seen Overdone by ANZ as China’s Steel Demand Sags. The recent rally in iron ore is unlikely to be sustained, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., which highlighted the risk of losses after prices capped the longest run of weekly gains in a year. While shipments to China were disrupted last week after explosions at Tianjin’s port, weak steel demand suggests price gains are overdone, the bank said in a report on Monday. Ore with 62 percent delivered to Qingdao rose 0.6 percent to $56.74 a dry metric ton last week to post a fifth straight climb, Metal Bulletin Ltd. data showed. The price hit $57.02 on Thursday, the highest since July 1, after the blasts late on Wednesday. 

• Hedge Funds Resume Flight From Oil as Prices Sink to 6-Year Lows. After showing some short-lived optimism, hedge funds resumed their retreat from the U.S. oil market, cutting bullish positions for the seventh time in eight weeks as prices dropped to the lowest since 2009. Money managers’ net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude declined 11 percent in the week ended Aug. 11, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short positions climbed to the highest level since March, a signal speculators see prices continuing to fall.

• OPEC May Boost Oil Output to a Record. (video)

• Yuan Drop Leads India to Mull Steel Anti-Dumping Duties. India said it’s being forced to consider steel safeguard duties and more anti-dumping curbs as the yuan’s devaluation threatens to stoke surging Chinese shipments. A steel import-tax increase earlier this month may not be enough of a deterrence, Financial Services Secretary Hasmukh Adhia said. Adhia has seen the steel industry contribute to elevated bad debt in India, in part as producers struggle to compete with imports from nations such as China and Russia.

Wall Street Journal:

• China’s Woes Echo in U.S. Earnings. In quarterly conference calls, U.S. executives recited a litany of pain resulting from a slowdown in China’s economy.

• A Global Recession May Be Brewing in China. Beijing’s desperate attempts to hit its arbitrary 7% growth target are having world-wide repercussions. As the global economy enters the seventh year of a sluggish recovery, it’s time to start asking when the world will face its next downturn—and what will drive it. Over the past 50 years there has been a global recession once every eight years, on average, so the next one may be brewing. When exactly it will come is hard to call. But the policy panic in Beijing over its currency and the fall of its stock market suggest that the next global recession likely will be “made in China.” This would represent a major break from... 

• Bad Loans Impede India’s Economic Growth. Loans in default at India banks stand at 4.3%. Mounting bad-loan ratios at Indian banks are a sign the country’s economy isn’t doing nearly as well as recent rosy output-growth figures suggest.

• Trump’s Defective Economics. The candidate is promoting currency devaluation—he should ask Argentina and Brazil how that worked out.

• Obama Targets Financial Advisers. Labor’s new fiduciary rule will limit advice for middle-class savers.

Barron's:

• China’s Yuan Could Fall 10% or More. Up & Down Wall Street: History suggests that China’s currency devaluation won’t be a one-time move. More trouble ahead for multinational consumer stocks.

Fox News:

• Gowdy: Clinton to testify in October before Benghazi panel, all questions ‘asked’ and ‘answered’. (video) South Carolina Rep. Trey Gowdy said Sunday that Hillary Clinton will indeed testify Oct. 22 about her activities as secretary of state at the time of the Benghazi attacks but suggested that her demand for a one-time appearance will result in a long, hard day.

MarketWatch.com:

• Why gas prices are rising as oil falls to 6-year lows.

CNBC:

• Rents rise to ‘crazy’ levels: Zillow. It's not your imagination. Rent really is too high. The cost of renting a home in the U.S. has risen to its least affordable levels ever, taking up a record proportion of income in most major cities, according to a study from property website Zillow.

Zero Hedge:

• Yuan Devaluation Sparks Biggest Crash In US Corporate Bonds Since Lehman. (pic)

• "They Have To Go"; Trump Vows To Deport All Illegal Immigrants.

• Billionaire Stanley Drucknemiller Loads Up On Gold, Makes It His Largest Position For First Time Ever.

• American Malls In Meltdown. (graph)

• Goldman's 4 Reasons Why The S&P Will Remain Unchanged For The Rest Of 2015. (graph)

• Asian Currency Crisis Continues As China Holds, Malaysia Folds, & Japan Heads For Quintuple Dip Recession. (graph)

• New Snowden Leak Exposes AT&T's "Extreme Willingness To Help" NSA Spy On Americans.

• Bouts Of Extreme Volatility Have "Little Obvious Explanation," Citi Warns. (graph)

• Goldman Weighs In On America's Pension Ponzi: Contributions Must Rise $100 Billion Per Year. (graph)

• North Korea Threatens To "Invade USA," Use Weapons "Unknown To The World".

• It's Not The Economy Stupid: It's The Fed.

• The HFT "Treasure Map" - Presenting The Rigged Stock Market's Full "Latency Arbitrage" In One Chart.

• Hundreds Of Thousands Take To The Streets In Brazil Demanding President's Impeachment. (pic)

• China's Debt Load To Hit 250% Of GDP In 5 Years, IMF Says. (graph)

• The Crisis Is Spreading: China, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Sweden... (graph)

Business Insider:

• 'Everybody is waiting for doomsday' in Texas.

• Star Wars is about to take over Disney theme parks — Here are all of the new attractions being planned.

• 7 reasons why Hillary's email problems won't go away.

• The investigation into Hillary Clinton's private email is being run out of FBI headquarters — and that's unusual. The FBI is seeking to determine who at the State Department passed highly classified information to Clinton's account in 2009 and 2011. Given the FBI involvement, the Clinton campaign is getting nervous as the investigation intensifies. “They’re worried about it,” a longtime Clinton adviser and confidant told The Washington Post. “They don’t know where it goes. That’s the problem.”

• The world is already weakening one of the key 'checks' on the Iran deal.

• The scariest reason China devalued the yuan, in one chart. (graph)

• 'Looming unrest in the oil sector' is rattling Central Asia's biggest country.

• Pump-and-dump frauds are turning to Twitter, and these companies are out to spot them.

• The NSA is asking your favorite apps how to spy on you better.

Financial Times:

• Problems for China’s economy extend far beyond currency. The sudden fall in China’s currency last week spurred a lively debate about whether the move was a victory for market reform or a competitive devaluation designed to shore up flagging exports. But even those who believe the 3 per cent drop was aimed at exporters acknowledge that a weaker renminbi by itself is radically insufficient to cope with the challenges facing China’s economy. 

• Anxiety over US student debt heightens. This traditionally staid corner of the bond universe has long attracted investors with a low tolerance for risk. Despite minimal expectation of losses due to the underlying loans being backed by the US government, sharp downgrades could spur an exit from the sector by investors banned from buying low-rated debt. The US student loan market has expanded significantly in recent years, driven by rising tuition costs and a clamour for a university education by millennials in the wake of the financial crisis.

• TD Bank warns of impact of oil’s fall on Canadian economy. The head of Toronto-Dominion Bank has warned of the chilling effects of lower oil prices on the Canadian economy, which could check the lender’s ambitions in the US, its most important growth market. The Toronto-based bank, the country’s joint largest lender by assets alongside Royal Bank of Canada, has expanded more quickly in the US than any other big foreign bank since the crisis. But in an interview with the Financial Times, president and chief executive Bharat Masrani said the latest drop in the oil price could hurt consumption in certain parts of Canada that are highly reliant on energy exports — and by extension, affect the bank’s earnings power.

Telegraph:

• Eurozone ministers: Greek debt relief won't be discussed until October. Michel Sapin, France's finance minister, says debt relief would provide 'oxygen' for growth but Germany insists International Monetary Fund participation in a debt package remains a dealbreaker.

China Digital Times:

• He Xiaoxin: How Far Can I Go? And How Much Can I Do? (pics) When I first set eyes on it, it startled me. This, this must be a movie! A Hollywood sci-fi wouldn’t be this shocking. This is like hell on earth. I could only think of one word—Chernobyl!

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.25 +.75 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.25 unch.

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate 

• (EL)/.34

• (A)/.41

• (MTZ)/.11

• (URBN)/.49

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for August is estimated to rise to 4.5 versus 3.86 in July.

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for August is estimated to rise to 61.0 versus 60.0 in July.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Property Price reports and the Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finished modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Fed rate hike worries, China bubble-bursting fears, Asian currency concerns, commodity weakness, technical selling and European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• German Lawmakers to Hold Greek Vote on Wednesday. German lawmakers will vote Wednesday on a new aid package for Greece, which needs approval to meet a debt payment deadline a day later. The vote in the Bundestag will follow euro-area finance ministers’ decision Friday to endorse the 86 billion-euro ($96 billion) loan program. Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose coalition has a parliament majority, moved a planned visit to Milan up a day to Monday to allow time to attend caucus meetings the night before to argue against opponents in her own parliamentary group. The new Greek program will see funds disbursed over three years as the government enacts economic reforms, though Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will get a portion immediately to cover looming bills. One of those, a 3.2 billion-euro payment to the European Central Bank, is due Thursday.

• Death Toll in Tianjin Blasts Rises to 85 as Area Evacuated. The death toll from Wednesday’s blasts at China’s northeastern port city of Tianjin has risen to 85 people, as local media reported that authorities evacuated a three-kilometer zone around the site on contamination fears. China has sent a team of nuclear and biochemical emergency military workers to the area to search for survivors, the Ministry of National Defense said in a statement Saturday. People were evacuated from the site amid chemical contamination fears, the Beijing News reported, citing unidentified people at local government agencies including traffic control and environmental protection.

• Nomura Says September Rate Rise Would Be Most Dovish in History. Traders say it’s a coin toss whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates from near zero next month. They’re more sure policy makers won’t be in any hurry once they get started. Futures prices show 48 percent odds the Fed hikes in September, even as plunging commodity prices drag down inflation expectations and China’s currency devaluation signals a slowdown in global growth. An imminent Fed rate rise amid broader uncertainty shifts scrutiny to the pace of subsequent increases. Officials have repeatedly lowered their own projections, known as the dot plot, for how quickly and how high rates will go.   

• Biden, Amid Presidential Run Speculation, Consoles Chattanooga. Vice President Joe Biden, the subject of rising media speculation about whether he’ll run for the White House, gave a speech on Saturday that frequently brought him close to tears, recalling the five victims of shootings at military installations in Tennessee. Biden, who has been on vacation in South Carolina, flew to Chattanooga to deliver the eulogy for the victims of the July 16 shootings carried out by a local man motivated by Islamic extremism.

• $20 Oil? Three Things We Learned This Week.

• Oman’s Daily Oil Output Tops 1 Million Barrels for First Time. Oman, the biggest oil producer in the Middle East outside OPEC, said its crude and condensate production in July exceeded 1 million barrels a day for the first time. “In July 2015 the Sultanate broke a new record,” the Oil and Gas Ministry said in a monthly report published on its website. Production rose 0.5 percent from June because of efficiency achieved through maintenance work. Daily crude output was 894,000 barrels and condensate -- a light oil extracted from gas -- accounted for 107,000 barrels, it said.

• Glencore’s $31 Billion Debt Weighs on Trader Amid Commodity Rout. Glencore Plc, the world’s largest listed commodity supplier, may take further steps to alleviate the strain of a $31 billion debt pile and protect its credit rating amid a rout in prices. After trimming this year’s spending plan as much as $800 million and selling $290 million of mines, the company may announce additional measures to shore up its balance sheet alongside earnings on Aug. 19, according to Citigroup Inc. and Barclays Plc. The company needs to cut net debt by almost half to $16 billion by the end of next year to retain its credit rating, which may lead to the sacrifice of 2016 dividends, said JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts.

• Goldman Closes an Era in Commodities With Coal Mine Disposal. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. closed a nearly 35-year era of investments in commodity assets such as power plants and refineries with the sale of a Colombian coal mine. The disposal is the latest sign of how Wall Street banks are responding to pressure from U.S. regulators and disappointing returns as raw materials prices plunged. Goldman Sachs has invested in physical commodity assets since 1981, when it bought what was then a small trading house called J. Aron. Over the years, the company has owned oil refineries in Rotterdam, power plants in Virginia and Colorado, and warehouses to store aluminum and copper around the world.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Sees Possible Pattern in ISIS Chemical Attacks. Mustard agent believed used against Kurdish forces in Syria two weeks ago, before Iraq. U.S. intelligence agencies have evidence indicating Islamic State used mustard agent against Kurdish forces for the first time at least two weeks ago in fighting in Syria, a tactic that the group may have repeated in two subsequent attacks in Iraq, U.S. officials said Friday. The developments are fueling concerns that Islamic State... 

• Steelworkers to Rally for Wage, Health-Benefit Pacts. With a looming deadline for a new three-year contract, labor talks are the first in a generation to be held during a down market.

• Clinton Defies the Law and Common Sense. The question of whether Hillary Clinton’s emails were marked top secret isn’t legally relevant. Any cabinet member should know that. Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server to conduct public business while serving as secretary of state, followed by the deletion of information on that server and the transfer to her lawyer of a thumb drive containing heretofore unexplored data, engages several issues of criminal law—but the overriding issue is one of plain common sense.

CNBC: 

• TV flickers as viewers find new screens.

Zero Hedge:

• China Sends In Chemical Warfare Troops, Orders Tianjin Blast Site Evacuation After Toxic Sodium Cyanide Found.

• America's Economic Reset Will Trigger Global Recession, New Crises.

• Caught On Tape: Hillary Clinton Explains Why She Loves Snapchat. (video) While we appreciate a good joke now and again, we think this might come across as a bit sinister to some "everyday American" folks... 

• Global Consumer Confidence Tumbles. (graph) 

• Guess What Happens Next.

• Approaching A Global Deflationary Crisis?

• Recovery Watch - American Food Banks Struggle To Keep Up Amidst "Surprising" Demand.

• Bull Market? Half The S&P 500 Are In The "Death Zone". (graph)

• Welcome To The World Of ZIRP Zombies.

• Weekend Reading: Chinese Food (For Thought). (graph)

• Chinese Air Pollution Kills 4,000 People Each Day (And Why It Will Kill Many More).

• Did David Tepper Just Call The Market Top... And Is The Appaloosa Billionaire Losing His Touch.

• One-In-A-Billion "Hiccups" Are Happening All The Time, Citi Warns Something Is Wrong. (graph)

• Chinado Sparks Bullion's Best Week In 3 Months; US Stocks, Bonds Shrug. (graph)

• This Alarming Indicator Is Back At A Level Last Seen 10 Days Before The Bear Stearns Collapse. (graph)

Business Insider:

• This chart will tell you when the next stock market bubble is about to burst. (graph)

• Huge numbers of Brazilians are going to stage a protest to impeach the president.

• Here's who holds the world's $59.7 trillion in sovereign debt.

• New aerial footage shows aftermath of explosion in China. (video)

• Cybersecurity expert: Here's how the GOP could 'have a field day' with Hillary Clinton's email scandal.

• The only Republican senator debating support for the Iran deal will vote 'no'.

• Greece has a new bailout, but there's a 'Catch 22'.

• Islamic State leader raped American hostage, US finds.

• The world's most hated currency hit an 11-year low.

• Tesla(TSLA) is entering another crisis.

• Bernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in stunning new 2016 poll.

NY Times:

• AT&T(T) Helped N.S.A. Spy on an Array of Internet Traffic. The National Security Agency’s ability to spy on vast quantities of Internet traffic passing through the United States has relied on its extraordinary, decades-long partnership with a single company: the telecom giant AT&T.

Reuters:

• Germany's Schaeuble says scope for Greek debt relief limited. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview with Deutsche Welle published on Saturday that there was some room to extend maturities on Greek debt but that this room was limited. "Outright debt forgiveness doesn't work at all under European law," Schaeuble said. "But we do have a certain amount of room to extend maturities further. This room is not very big."

Telegraph: 

• Beware a China crisis that could crash down on us all. If the yuan dropped very sharply, inflation could soar, leading Beijing to raise interest rates, which would slow the country’s economy – which at the moment seems unthinkable.

Bild:

• German Economist Sinn Says Greek Accord Lacks Authenticity. Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo Institute, says 3rd bailout for Greece is an "abstruse mix of diverse detail and squishy formulations," citing an interview. According contains few spending cuts and a lot of hope the Greek govt will be able to collect taxes in the future even though it didn't succeed in the past. The program "misses the truth" and the bailout means taxpayers will pour more resources into a "bottomless pit".

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,091.41 +.69%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,091.41 +.69%

• DJIA 17,478.80 +.62%

• NASDAQ 5,048.73 +.12%

• Russell 2000 1,211.51 +.37%

• S&P 500 High Beta 32.0 +.72%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 130.87 -.88% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,808.50 +.68%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,015.64 +.56%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,009.95 +.85%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 513.93 unch.

• Solactive US Cyclical 128.17 +.47%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,074.44 +.73%

• Transports 8,318.82 +.85%

• Utilities 604.14 +2.33%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 115.38 -3.24%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 35.57 -2.44%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,196.41 -.67%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,004.32 -.49%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 231,601 -.18%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -393 +277

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 34.15 +298.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 247,093 n/a

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,736,523 n/a

• Total Put/Call 1.05 -13.01%

• OEX Put/Call .84 +68.12%

• ISE Sentiment 99.0 +55.36%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 -19.44%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.07 -1.86%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.36 +1.26%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.1 -2.57%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.75 +14.4%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,981.29 +1.41%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.675 Trillion +.2%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$7.303 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 30.5 +25.2%

• AAII % Bears 36.2 +14.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 197.97 -.18%

• Crude Oil 42.31 -3.29%

• Reformulated Gasoline 168.81 +3.7%

• Natural Gas 2.80 +.57%

• Heating Oil 155.09 +.68%

• Gold 1,112.40 +1.90%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 148.44 unch.

• Copper 234.75 +1.05%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 231.47 USD/Ton -2.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 56.74 USD/Ton +.6%

• Lumber 252.70 -2.50%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,041.86 -1.46%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .2% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0365 -5.93%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.19 +.18%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.4 +3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.8 -6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.3 -2.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 50.0% chance of no change, 50.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/17
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 3.68 -2.13%

• US Dollar Index 96.55 -1.01%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.29 +1.4%

• Yield Curve 147.0 +2.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.20% +3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.451 Trillion +.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.5 unch.

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 228.0 -7.4%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.37 -.49%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 69.97 +7.23%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 307.65 +1.34%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.45 +1.05%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 684.92 -1.88%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 374.16 +2.76%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.38 -1.33%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63% -3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 23.0 -5.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 -.25 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 76.8 +1.77%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,902.0 +3.34%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 76.40 -.22%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 343.30 +2.04%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 103.0 +7.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $3.117 Trillion +2.91%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,058.80 -.80%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 266,250 -2,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.94% +3 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 397.50 +.08%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.7 +.4 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.90% +60.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.65/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,046.0 -12.83%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 819.62 +2.59%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.09%

• Rail Freight Carloads 274,424 +1.84%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +8.4%

• Homebuilders +5.1%

• Telecom +4.0%

• Energy +3.0%

• Utilities +2.2%

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech -1.1% 

• Papers -1.3%

• Airlines -1.4%

• Education -1.7%

• Gaming -5.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• W, YDLE, SYA, STMP, ICUI, CVT, POST, PCP, HCKT, NVAX, TWOU, NVDA, NUS, OME, BGG, AAP, AEL, CREE, SYY and AGX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (42)

• STCK, DF, RRGB, BID, MMS, RAX, WK, KSS, HALO, NHI, INCR, PRAA, DTSI, APEI, AHP, OLED, CTRE, TUBE, NGHC, SUNE, TPC, FRPT, EVDY, UVV, SHAK, BLUE, LJPC, ZBRA, IMDZ, BCRX, EGRX, ENV, RENT, XON, RLYP, CLDX, LXU, ASCMA, ICON, WRLD, FLDM and KPTI

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change