Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.81%
Sector Outperformers: 
  • 1) Steel +2.13% 2) Road & Rail +2.12% 3) Biotech +1.53%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • FCS, UVE, VIPS, NSC, ADPT, JACK, TSEM, ARMK, CP, TASR, PRAA and KITE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) NMBL 2) SRPT 3) EUO 4) SLCA 5) HPE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) TASR 2) CA 3) JCI 4) CAG 5) TWTR
Charts: 

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • John Kerry Draws Fire for Saying Charlie Hebdo Attack Had `Rationale'. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said last week’s terror attacks in Paris lacked the "rationale" of the assault earlier this year on the staff of the satirical French newspaper Charlie Hebdo, comments that drew immediate criticism from conservatives. “There’s something different about what happened from Charlie Hebdo, and I think everybody would feel that," Kerry told embassy staff and their families Tuesday in Paris, according to a transcript posted by the State Department. "There was a sort of particularized focus and perhaps even a legitimacy in terms of — not a legitimacy, but a rationale that you could attach yourself to somehow and say, OK, they’re really angry because of this and that.” Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen claimed credit for the January attack on Charlie Hebdo, which left 12 staff members dead. The terror group said it was in retaliation for the magazine’s decision to publish cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, among other justifications. Visual depictions of Muhammad are seen as by many Muslims as sacrilegious.
  • Schumer Joins Republicans Questioning Obama's Refugee Plan. The Obama administration stepped up its assurances that it can keep terrorists from mixing with incoming Syrian refugees as a top Senate Democrat voiced reservations about a resettlement program already under fire from Republicans. New York Senator Chuck Schumer, who will take over as the Democratic leader in the chamber in 2017, said “a pause may be necessary” on the entry of Syrians fleeing civil war. House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, both Republicans, earlier called on the administration to put those plans on hold
  • Fear Spreads as China's Finance Firms Face Arrests. The high-drama highway arrest of a prominent hedge fund manager. Seizures of computers and phones at Chinese mutual funds. The investigations of the president of Citic Securities Co. and at least six other employees. Now, add the probe of China’s former gatekeeper of the IPO process himself. The arrests or investigations targeting the finance industry in the aftermath of China’s summer market crash have intensified in recent weeks, creating a climate of fear among China’s finance firms and chilling their investment strategies. At least 16 people have been arrested, are being investigated or have been taken away from their job duties to assist authorities, according to statements and announcements compiled by Bloomberg News.  
  • China Home-Price Recovery Slows in October Amid Supply Glut. China’s home-price recovery slowed in October, as a supply glut in less prosperous cities challenges the authorities’ efforts to revive the residential market with interest-rate cuts and easing of mortgage restrictions. New-home prices increased in 27 cities, compared with 39 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. Prices dropped in 33 cities, compared with 21 in September and were unchanged in 10.The number of unsold new homes nationwide increased 14 percent to 437 million square meters (4.7 billion square feet) as of Oct. 31 as the pace of home sales slowed, the statistics bureau said earlier this month.
  • Hedge Fund Gaining 138% Says China Short Targets Easier to Spot. Hao Capital Management, whose Greater China-focused hedge fund returned 138 percent this year, said it is easier to identify targets to wager against among yuan-denominated China stocks than to spot those with the potential to rise. Many of the nation’s industries are plagued by overcapacity, which will lead to slower cash flow growth for companies with A shares listed in China, the manager of the $268 million hedge fund wrote in its October newsletter to investors. The hedge fund, which bets on rising and falling stocks and didn’t mention any specific industries or shares, wrote that companies with strong cash flows are unlikely to see valuations drop to lows seen in previous years.
  • China IMF Victory to Sap Central Bank Appetite for Aussie Debt. China is about to deal another blow to Australian bonds as the yuan’s ascent into the International Monetary Fund’s reserves diverts investments from Aussie-dollar assets. The IMF signaled it will include the yuan as the fifth currency in its Special Drawing Rights basket this month, a stamp of approval for China’s progress in internationalizing the currency. Standard Chartered Plc estimates up to $1.1 trillion will enter the nation in the next five years due to the endorsement. One casualty of such diversification will be the Australian dollar, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, BNP Paribas SA and Mizuho Bank Ltd.
  • Macau Chief Sees Casino Revenue Slumping More Next Year. Macau’s chief executive forecasts casino revenue to come in at 200 billion patacas ($25 billion) next year, the lowest since 2010 and a further decline from what analysts estimate for the whole of 2015. Casino shares fell.
  • What Are 2016’s Downside Risks to EM Growth? (video)
  • Are Investors Losing Faith in Policymakers? (video)
  • Asian Stocks Rise on Japan as Investors Await Fed Minutes, BOJ. Asian stocks rose, boosted by gains in Japanese shares as the yen held losses before a Bank of Japan policy meeting. Investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve after U.S. inflation data bolstered the case for higher interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 132.26 as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo.  
  • China Steel Output to Plunge 23 Million Tons in 2016, CISA Says. Crude steel production in China will shrink by an estimated 23 million metric tons next year as a downturn in local demand deepens and mills encounter increasing opposition to exports, according to the China Iron & Steel Association. Output in the world’s largest producer may drop to about 783 million tons from 806 million tons in 2015, a decline of 2.9 percent, according to Deputy Secretary General Li Xinchuang. Local demand would slump to about 654 million tons in 2016 from 668 million tons this year, Li said in an interview in Shanghai on Wednesday.
  • Zinc Slumps to Six-Year Low as Metals Tumble on China, Dollar. Zinc dropped to the lowest since July 2009 as industrial metals retreated on concerns over faltering Chinese demand and the dollar traded near its strongest in more than a decade. Lead fell to the lowest since 2010. Zinc used to galvanize steel lost as much as 1.5 percent to $1,525 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and traded at $1,526.50 by 9:37 a.m in Hong Kong. Lead sank as much as 1.4 percent to $1,572 a ton. Copper and aluminum declined, while nickel rose.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • France, Russia pummel ISIS stronghold as critics blast US rules of engagement. (video) In the wake of Friday's deadly terror attack in Paris and the confirmed bombing of a Russian airliner, Russia and France are pounding the Islamic State's Syrian stronghold of Raqqa as, while the number of U.S. airstrikes against ISIS still dwarves all others combined, America appears to be in a slap fight while others are punching hard, say military experts.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
  • Fed may send a big message to markets. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting could be a big deal for markets Wednesday, showing the central bank is finally ready to raise rates next month — barring any negative surprises in the economy. "Hopefully, they'll make their intentions to raise rates a lot clearer in the new set of minutes," said Jack Ablin, CIO of BMO Private Bank.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Daily Caller:
Reuters:
  • Hedge fund Achievement Asset to shut down after energy losses. Hedge fund Achievement Asset Management is shutting its doors after suffering losses on energy market bets this year, becoming the latest investment firm to return capital to clients in a year many managers have struggled to make money. The Chicago-based firm, run by Joseph Scoby, plans to return $875 million to clients by the end of the year, according to published reports in Crain's Chicago Business and the Wall Street Journal. At its peak in 2014 the firm oversaw roughly $2 billion in assets but investors had been pulling money out as returns sagged. The fund lost roughly 7 percent this year as its bets on corporate bonds soured, Crain's reported.
  • Fed's Tarullo says 'shadow' banks need activity-by-activity regulation. The United States is in a "grace period" of lowered financial risk but should address the potential for increased problems to develop in the financial system's non-bank sector, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said on Tuesday. Tarullo said the "shadow" banking sector is too diverse and in many cases helpful to put under the same sort of blanket regulations banks face on things like the capital and liquidity they are required to maintain. 
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.75 -1.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.46 -.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
  • (LOW)/.79
  • (SPLS)/.35
  • (TGT)/.86
  • (CTRP)/.25
  • (HI)/.55
  • (GMCR)/.71
  • (LB)/.52
  • (NTAP)/.56
  • (CRM)/.19
  • (SINA)/.21
  • (WB)/.06 
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for October are estimated to fall to 1160K versus 1206K in September.
  • Building Permits for October are estimated to rise to 1147K versus 1103K in September.   
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,268,180 barrels versus a +4,224,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -972,730 barrels versus a -2,102,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -450,00 barrels versus a +352,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.61% versus a +.8% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • Release of US Fed Minutes from Oct. 27-28 FOMC Meeting.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Feds Dudley speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, BofJ rate decision, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, Barclays Automotive Conference, (SGI) analyst day, (CA) analyst day, (LGND) analyst day, (OC) investor day, (QCOM) analyst meeting and the (VRX) investor conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Terrorism Fears, Oil Decline, Earnings Outlook Worries, Commodity/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.09 +5.12%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.27 -.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.54 -1.13%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.52 -.66%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +10.0%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -9.30%
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 +136.30
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.74 +2.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,236.0 -.3%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.25 -6.5%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.12 -3.85%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 69.14 -2.03%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 322.79 -.99%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.83 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -42.5 -2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.53 +.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 1420.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $45.58/Metric Tonne -4.52%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.8 -4.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.5 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.0 +1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56 +2.0 basis points
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 2.79 -.10
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +185 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -95 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Paris Terror Unites East Europe Against Merkel's Refugee Plan. (video) Eastern European nations are toughening their opposition to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to force them to take in refugees, arguing that the European Union’s immigration policies may have aided last week’s terrorist attacks in Paris. Bulgarian Foreign Minister Daniel Mitov on Tuesday called discussions on quotas for migrants “absurd” following the events in Paris, while Poland’s incoming Prime Minister Beata Szydlo said a day earlier the EU should review its stance on immigration, pledging to accept refugees only if they don’t endanger security. At least 129 people were killed in Paris on Friday, with a Syrian passport found next to the body of one of the suicide bombers registered on the Greek island of Leros, suggesting the holder may have come into Europe claiming to be a political refugee. The EU is increasingly split along east-west lines over how to deal with the immigration crisis as the European Commission estimates 3 million asylum seekers may be heading toward the bloc by 2017.
  • Foreign Companies Scrap Paris Events After Terror Attacks. Corporate events planned for Paris are going dark as Europe’s worst terror attack in a decade spurs foreign companies to scrap visits because of concerns over security and travel disruptions. The Netherlands’ ABN Amro Bank NV, Japan’s Sharp Corp., and home-sharing startup Airbnb Inc. are among companies that have curtailed or canceled events or asked employees to avoid travel to Paris after the Friday assaults that killed at least 129 people. The cancellations show the uphill struggle faced by France to convince businesspeople, investors and tourists that it can maintain security after its second major terror incident in less than a year. Unlike January’s Charlie Hebdo attacks, which mostly targeted the journalists at the satirical newspaper, Friday’s assaults felt entirely random, indiscriminately killing Parisians and visitors at cafes, restaurants and a concert hall. 
  • Wall Street Is Running the World's Central Banks. Wall Street is again leading to the corridors of central banks. From Minneapolis to Paris, investors and financiers are increasingly being hired to help set monetary policy less than a decade since the banking crisis roiled the world economy and chilled their public-sector employment prospects. Academic studies of historical voting records at central banks suggest the new trend may mean an increased bias towards tighter monetary policy. Last week’s appointment of Neel Kashkari to run the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis as of January means a third of the Fed’s 12 district banks will soon be run by officials with past ties to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Kashkari also worked for Pacific Investment Management Co. and managed the U.S. Treasury’s $700 billion rescue of banks during the financial crisis. The New York Fed’s William Dudley was Goldman’s chief U.S. economist for almost a decade before joining the central bank in 2007, while recently appointed Dallas Fed President Robert Steven Kaplan spent 22 years at Goldman and rose to become its vice chairman of investment banking. Although Patrick Harker joined the Philadelphia Fed from the University of Delaware he also served as an independent trustee of Goldman Sachs Trust. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart both spent time working for Citigroup Inc. Fed Governor Jerome Powell worked as an investment banker early in his career for Dillon, Read & Co., which eventually became part of Switzerland’s UBS Group AG.
  • Energy Shares Lead European Stocks to Biggest Rally in 6 Weeks. Oil-and-gas producers strengthened gains, leading an advance in European shares for a second day. Total SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc climbed 3.4 percent or more. France’s CAC 40 Index proved resilient in the wake of Friday’s terror attacks, rising 2.8 percent for the biggest gain in developed markets, after closing little changed yesterday. Europe’s stocks advanced the most in six weeks, helped by a falling euro and oil prices that have held above $40 a barrel, according to Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM EK in Eppstein, Germany. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 2.5 percent at the close of trading, as 570 of its stocks rose.
  • Copper Sags to Six-Year Low as Investors Sell on Surplus, China. Copper fell to a six-year low as investors added to bearish positions amid expectations for a global supply glut and slowing demand in China, the world’s biggest consumer. Short positions in the metal increased 39 percent, the most since January 2014, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Monday. A rally for Chinese stocks fizzled Tuesday after technology and small-company shares plunged, as the Asian nation heads for the slowest economic growth in 25 years. The metal has lost 25 percent this year.
  • OPEC Delays Long-Term Strategy Amid Rift Over Production. OPEC’s board of governors was unable to agree on the group’s long-term strategy plan and won’t present it to oil ministers when they meet on Dec. 4 in Vienna, two OPEC delegates with knowledge of the matter said. Approval of the plan is delayed until at least the next meeting of the board of governors in 2016, said the delegates, who asked not to be identified because the plan isn’t public. Calls to the headquarters of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna weren’t immediately answered. 
  • Swelling Global Grain Glut Spurs Largest Bearish Bet Since June. Overflowing grain bins prompted money managers to expand their wagers on lower crop prices by almost ten times in the space of a week. Global inventories of corn, wheat and soybeans will each rise to all-time highs before next year’s North American harvests, the U.S. government forecasts. While grain prices have already dropped to five-year lows, hedge funds are predicting more losses as stockpiles expand. The funds are holding the biggest bearish bet on the crops since June. 
  • Will Fed Tightening Expose the Bear in a Bull Run? (video)
  • Druckenmiller Among Top Managers Who Cut Back U.S. Stocks. (video) Some of the world’s top hedge fund managers scaled back their U.S. stock investments last quarter as markets tumbled. The value of Stan Druckenmiller’s disclosed U.S.-listed equity holdings dropped 41 percent to $868 million, according to a filing from the billionaire’s family office. The listed holdings at Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital Management fell 39 percent to $1.65 billion, while at David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management, they dropped 30 percent to $2.82 billion.
  • Merchants of Debt. Big problems get a whole lot bigger when big debt is involved. The prime example is energy companies, many of which borrowed record amounts of cash during the recent commodity boom only to run into trouble as soon as oil prices headed south. But another important one can be found in overly leveraged U.S. retailers, which are struggling in the face of a structural shift in consumers’ spending habits. Macy’s, for example, the largest U.S. department-store company with about $7 billion of debt outstanding, plunged the most in more than seven years last week after the chain missed third-quarter sales estimates and cut its annual profit forecast. Its bonds had already dropped almost 3 percent in the year leading up to the earnings and kept on falling after that as investors worried about the company’s future viability, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. It’s not alone.
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
@Breaking911:
@L0gg01:
Breaking News:
Telegraph:
Channel NewsAsia:
  • SGX flags concerns about financial accounting by several China-linked firms. (video) Companies at risk include those from the textile and sporting goods, manufacturing, heavy industries, packaging, electrical and electronics, retail and chemical sectors, according to Singapore Exchange's Chief Regulatory Officer. The Singapore Exchange (SGX) on Tuesday (17 Nov) expressed concern about write-offs made by by some companies with" large" operations in China, and said it is closely monitoring the disclosures made. "Several companies with large operations in China have recently announced adverse and significant changes in their financial positions under perplexing circumstances," Chief Regulatory Officer Tan Boon Gin wrote in a column published on the SGX website. "In some instances, the companies reported customer claims for compensation more than 10 times the value of the original sales which is the subject to the claim. In others, trade receivables written off ballooned and explanations offered did not provide clarity or comfort," Mr Tan said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 
  • Small-Cap Value -.32%
Sector Underperformers: 
  • 1) Gold & Silver -5.48% 2) Oil Tankers -3.78% 3) Alt Energy -2.15%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • DKS, URBN, OSIR, CLVS, GNC, SHOP, BKH, ADPT, VSI, RMAX, UTG, UA, OXLC, KLIC, YPF, OPB, TITN, PRTY, TERP, HLF, LILAK, FTD, KMF, BPMC, BSM, HIBB, MPLX, VSI, GMCR, CLVS and RDUS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 
  • 1) SBGI 2) DKS 3) JOY 4) BBY 5)UTX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 
  • 1) CHK 2) SUNE 3) VRX 4) GNC 5) HLF
Charts: