Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -2.6% 2) Steel -2.2% 3) Coal -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AMBC, WR, GGAL, GIL, FLT, ABCB, AZN, BMA, SCHL, KANG, DIN, DKL, GBCI, MATW, GSUM, DB, WTS, VAL, SXI, ARCB, AMP, PVH, HAS, LVS and SSB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DXJ 2) XLK 3) GE 4) FDX 5) UNH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JAKK 2) AMBC 3) SUN 4) MRK 5) ILMN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +1.5% 2) REITs +1.1% 3) Telecom +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AWH, LOXO, BEAT, GPOR, SUPN and HSC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GSAT 2) CY 3) HTZ 4) CHTR 5) DUK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LRCX 2) WEX 3) RLGY 4) COST 5) HUBS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.4% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 66.2% of Issues Advancing, 30.0% Declining
• 67 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 58.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.1%
• Vix 11.9 -2.6%
• Total Put/Call 1.19 +30.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.60 +37.3%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Deal Reached That Could Restart Aleppo Evacuation. Rebel and government forces agreed Saturday to allow "humanitarian cases" to leave two besieged government-held Shiite villages in northwestern Syria, a step that would allow the resumption of civilian and rebel evacuations from eastern Aleppo which were suspended a day earlier, Hezbollah's media arm and a monitoring group said. The opposition's Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the evacuation of some 4,000 people, including wounded, from the villages of Foua and Kfarya was expected to start Saturday. It later reported that 29 buses were heading toward the two villages to start the evacuation process, adding that insurgents in the area rejected allowing 4,000 people to leave and saying they will only allow 400 people to be evacuated. The Syrian army said another 25 buses left later Saturday heading to the two villages.
• Japan Posts Trade Surplus for Third Month as Imports Slump. Japan posted a trade surplus for a third straight month in November as imports continued to fall faster than exports. Exports declined at the slowest pace since September 2015. 
• Top Yen Analysts Discuss Bull-Versus-Bear Outlook for 2017: Q&A.
• High Noon for Australia’s AAA Rating as Weak Wages Drag Budget. A worsening of Australia’s deficit in a budget update due at midday could trigger a downgrade of its top credit score. Politicians are worried; economists less so. While the prospect of being the first government in 30 years to lose the coveted grade alarms lawmakers, some economists think its loss could pave the way for increased spending. Most predict the forecast deficit for the current fiscal year will be little changed from a May projection, and few are panicking about losing the AAA -- whether that happens this week, next year or at all.
• Dollar Retreats, Crude Extends Drone Gain; Aussie Shares Advance. The Topix Index of Japanese shares slid .2% as of 9:51 a.m. in Tokyo, snapping a two-day advance; the Kospi Index also fell .2%.

Wall Street Journal:

• Donald Trump’s Team Tones Down Skepticism on Russia Hacking Evidence. Reince Priebus suggests a unified presentation from U.S. agencies could convince the president-elect.
• Rising Rates Ripple Through Mortgage Market. Experts warn homeowners of sticker shock ahead, as interest rates on adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit are expected to creep up.
• The EPA’s Science Deniers. The agency changes its view on fracking and water without evidence.

Fox News:

• Podesta: Russia behind email hacks, wanted Trump as its White House 'lap dog'. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Everyone's Bullish: Barron's Best Guessers Say Buy Banks, Sell Staples In 2017.
• Chinese Interbank Lending Freezes, Forcing Massive Intervention By China's Central Bank.
• US Shale Gas Industry: Countdown To Disaster.
• "Fake News" Is the New "Weapons Of Mass Destruction".
• US Asian Allies "Worried" By Muted Response To Drone Seizure, As Fears Grow China "Stole Secrets".
• Hedge Fund CIO To Michelle Obama: 22x Trailing Earnings Is What Hope Really Feels Like.
• A Bearish David Rosenberg Re-Emerges: "Fade This Rally" As "Trump Will Engineer A Return To Deflation". (graph)
• Judge Jeanine Slams "Hopeless" Michelle: "Americans Rejected You And Everything You Stand For".
• Monte Paschi Launches Share Sale To Avoid State Rescue As Germany Warns Against Taxpayer Bailout.
• Former Fed Advisor: State Pensions Time Bomb Spells Disaster For The US.

Business Insider:

• Before-and-after photos show the staggering scale of destruction in Aleppo.

People's Daily:

• China Should Cut Overcapacity in More Industries. China should expand production overcapacity reduction efforts from the coal, steel sectors to more industries, citing Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economic Affairs. China must stick to deleveraging, Yang said.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.25 -5.5 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 37.25 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.42 -.18%.
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (LEN)/1.27
• (WOR)/.79

Economic Releases
9:45 am EST

• The Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for December is estimated to rise to 55.1 versus 54.6 in November.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German IFO Index and the China November Property Price report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Week Ahead by Bloomberg.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Fed rate-hike worries, yen strength, technical selling, profit-taking and rising long-term rates. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Dow Stops Short of 20,000 in Worst Week for Banks Since Election. (video) What began as a record-setting streak for U.S. stocks fizzled as the week progressed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching and ultimately falling short of 20,000, as the biggest driver of the post-election rally declined. Financial firms decreased for the first time since Donald Trump’s presidential victory, ending a five-week advance in which the group propelled benchmark indexes to records. The S&P 500 Index lost 0.1 percent to end at 2,258.07, while the Dow average climbed within 0.45 percent of 20,000 before ending at 19,843.41, a gain of 0.4 percent for the five days.
• China Must Curb Speculation Amid Bubble, Top Official Says. China must do more to deflate a property bubble that expanded this year by "strictly" controlling speculation while also stepping up the fight to rein in excessive corporate borrowing, a top economic official said a day after leaders announced plans for next year. "We need to give a higher priority to preventing and controlling financial risks," Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economic Affairs, said Saturday at a forum in Beijing. "We need to defuse a flurry of risks, contain asset bubbles, and improve oversight to ensure there won’t be a systemic financial risk."
• China Bonds in Worst Week in Two Years as Fed Adds to Stresses. China’s sovereign bonds posted the biggest weekly decline in two years, reeling from the fallout of hawkish Federal Reserve comments, yuan depreciation pressures and waning liquidity. The 10-year sovereign yield surged 25 basis points this week, the most since December 2014, to 3.35 percent on Friday. The one-year yield jumped 50 basis points, while the five-year rose 27 basis points. The yuan, which fell to an eight-year low, is heading for the biggest weekly decline in a month. The debt market selloff caught investors by surprise, with Bocom International Holdings Co. flagging the risk of further declines and Commonwealth Bank of Australia saying it’s hard to see a reversal of fortunes even in the mid-term. While the Fed’s indications of quicker tightening fueled fears of faster fund outflows and ignited a record one-day yield jump Thursday, Chinese bonds have been under pressure in recent weeks from a government-driven effort to reduce leverage.
• Disney’s(DIS) ‘Rogue One’ Reaps $71.1 Million in Two Days:
• Icy Weather Snarls Holiday Travel for Thousands of U.S. Fliers.

Wall Street Journal:

• Aleppo Awaits Evacuations After Apparent Cease-Fire Deal is Brokered. Agreement would allow ‘humanitarian cases’ to leave two government-held Shiite villages.
• China to Return Seized U.S. Underwater Drone. Agreement ends brief standoff, as China shows increasing resistance to U.S. maritime surveillance in region.
• Turkey Bus Blast Kills 13 Soldiers, Leaves Dozens Injured. Latest attack comes a week after 37 policemen and seven civilians were killed outside an Istanbul soccer stadium.
• Facebook’s(FB) Fake Fix for Fake News. Liberal fact-checkers are not the way to ensure a more informed public.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (BAC), (GOOGL), (CFG), (NVDA), (AMD),(TGT), (HUM), (VZ), (ORCL).
• Had bearish commentary on (DIN).

Fox News:

• Michelle Obama's suggestion Trump is end of 'hope' for America gets pushback. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Slams Chinese Seizure Of US Drone, Calls It "Unprecedented Act".
• China Responds: Will Return Stolen Drone, "Regrets US Hype".
• Global Debt, Equity Markets Lose $1 Trillion In Value As Hawkish Fed Spooks Traders. (graph)
• A Lowly New High - What Happens Next? (graph)
• China Orders Shut Down Of 1,200 Factories After Smog "Red Alert" Declared In Beijing.
• Trump Picks Fiscal Conservative Hawk Mulvaney As Budget Director.
• "Sorry, Not Sorry" - Neither The Media Nor Their Owners Are Going To Change.
• "When Everyone Is Sure They Know What's Going To Happen, They're Wrong".
• Six Steps Trump Can Take Toward Better Monetary Policy.
• How We Ended Up Here: A Brief History Of "Fake News", And The Role Of FaceBook.
• BuzzFeed And The NYDN: Click-Bait Headlines, False Stories, And Virtually Nonexistent Retractions.
• 2016 Facts And Figures Quiz.
• Central Banker Sees "Scary" 2017.
• George Soros Is Funding Facebook's(FB) "Third-Party Fact Checking" Organization Targeting "Fake News".
• "Dash-For-Trash" At Its Most Extreme Since DotCom Peak... (graph)
• Weekend Reading: Copious Cognitions.
• Stocks Suffer Worst Week Since Election As Banks, Bullion, & Bonds Sink. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Trump has a chance to 'drain the swamp' at the Federal Reserve.
• Rents are finally dropping in New York City, and a bubble might be about to pop.
• Here's what you can do to help besieged, war-torn Aleppo, Syria.
• OBAMA: 'I feel responsible' for Syria.
• 'Reagan would roll over in his grave' — President Obama blasts Republicans who approve of Putin. (video)
• Americans haven't had this much credit card debt since the eve of the financial crisis.