Friday, June 16, 2017

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,429.45 -.21%
  • DJIA 21,361.30 +.41%
  • NASDAQ 6,154.74 -1.04%
  • Russell 2000 1,402.69 -1.55%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 36.70 -1.37%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 129.78 -.86%
  • Wilshire 5000 25,149.0 -.24%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,195.89 -.41%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,141.85 -.02%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 576.42 -.97%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3189 -.40%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,465.12 -.84%
  • Transports 9,392.83 +.70%
  • Utilities 737.30 +1.61%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 99.93 +2.12%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 41.13 -1.45%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,194.62 -.17%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 991.52 -.34%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 292,380 +.34%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -41 -377
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 48.72 +21.8%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 373,755 +.21%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,198,081 -.59%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 -5.66%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.12 +432.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 54.0 -45.78%
  • NYSE Arms 1.33 +40.96%
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.83 +3.46%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.29 -.26%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.26 +.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.63 -2.04%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,833.12 +.93%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.659 Trillion +.21%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.168 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 35.4 +31.6%
  • AAII % Bears 29.5 -6.4%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 172.82 -2.24%
  • Crude Oil 44.67 -2.77%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 145.30 -3.67%
  • Natural Gas 3.04 unch.
  • Heating Oil 142.55 -.73%
  • Gold 1,255.80 -.91%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 170.41 -.9%
  • Copper 256.45 -3.1%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 266.67 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 54.41 USD/Ton -5.85%
  • Lumber 364.40 -.30%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,053.43  -1.28%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.4 unch.
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +4.2% -40.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0819 +1.74% 
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 67.25 -47.58%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 137.32 +.20%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -43.40 -2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.10 -4.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.90 -3.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 6/14
  • US Dollar Index 97.19 -.16%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,603.23 -.08%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.48 +.36%
  • Yield Curve 83.0 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.15% -6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.423 Trillion +.07%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.75 +.6%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 392.0 -.07%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 6.65 -11.75%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 17.25 -3.54%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 50.75 -1.12%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.1 -6.52%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 50.93 -2.89%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 163.5 +3.77%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 138.86 -.14%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68% -13.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 27.25 +4.5 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.5 +2.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.02 unch.
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 427.0 +1.79%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.50 -5.81%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 195.71 +.47%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 145.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.521 Trillion -.51%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 996.90 +.3%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 242,000 +4,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.89% -5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 430.60 +7.06%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.90 -1.3 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.5% +60.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.35/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 850.0 -7.41%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 841.59 +.18%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 247,339 -12.15%
Best Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Value unch.
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Value -1.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Gaming +2.6%
  • Hospitals +2.0%
  • Utilities +1.6%
  • Homebuilders +1.3%
  • Papers +1.3%
Lagging Sectors
  • Foods -2.6% 
  • Retail -3.4%
  • Coal -5.4%
  • Gold & Silver -5.6%
  • Steel -6.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (14)
  • OMER, EPZM, SELB, CMCT, GDEN, DFT, HRB, DSKE, AVHI, CLPR, BKD, DFIN, WNEB and CARO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)
  • KW, YHOO, MPAA, GNMK, MAT, MPO, PDFS, CAKE, HNI, AEIS, HUBS, KMG, SYNA, KR, CLDR and CHRS
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Less Economic Optimism, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Retail/Food Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.75 -1.38%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.49 +.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.63 -.52%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.13 +5.01%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 52.0 -17.46%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +7.22%
  • NYSE Arms 1.42 +5.26%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.28 +2.44%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 427.0 +.99%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.48 -.44%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 6.65 -4.18%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.25 +.58%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 196.99 +1.68%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 139.16 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 27.25 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.25 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.18 +.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.0% unch.
  • Yield Curve 83.5 +2.5 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.23/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -78.60 -16.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.40 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.6 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 -1.0 basis point
  • 24.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 20 meeting, 27.5% chance at Nov. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +22 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/medical sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Retail -1.7% 2) Foods -1.7% 3) Tobacco -1.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • UNFI, BAH, COST, KR, SFM, TGT, WMT, USFD, WBA, EPZM, TECK, BGS and CVS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WFM 2) ALLY 3) NLY 4) CVS 5) UAA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BAH 2) KR 3) LAD 4) SVU 5) CALM
Charts: