Monday, July 31, 2017

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:03 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Internet -1.3% 2) Airlines -1.2% 3) Disk Drives -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DISCA, NCI, ICPT, ECHO, HTZ, DDS, BTI, AXL, FLR, CLVS, AMCX, CCOI and PLSE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SAVE 2) CF 3) OXY 4) GT 5) MO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HTZ 2) SGYP 3) HP 4) MO 5) SNAP
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:43 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +1.9% 2) Banks +1.3% 3) Gaming +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SOHU, DVAX, SNI, AHGP, SERV, DGII, KBWB, CHTR, LBRDA, BIDU, SAM, YRD, HSKA, STS, PAH, AWI, LBRDK, ICLR, ADP, AXGN, NRZ, LN, IMDZ, PLT, LVNTA and UAA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SGMS 2) XME 3) HLT 4) HYG 5) CY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GVA 2) EXP 3) CVA 4) BIDU 5) VALE
Charts:
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Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:33 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Sunday, July 30, 2017

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:36 PM
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Europe's Eastern Rebels Expose Next Fault Line for EU Leaders. European leaders are declaring the continent’s financial crisis to be over, but now a political one is fermenting. A battle between European Union regulators and the Polish government over its plans to weaken the judiciary’s independence is splitting eastern and western Europe in a way that the euro region erupted along a north-south fault line. As Greece returned to the bond market last week, Poland faced the threat of unprecedented EU penalties from the first-ever probe of a member’s respect for the rule of law.
  • Australian Airport Security Tightened After Plot to Down Plane. Security checks at all major Australian airports have been ramped up following a counter-terrorism operation that foiled an alleged plot to bring down a plane. Four men were arrested in counter-terrorism raids on homes in the Sydney suburbs of Surry Hills, Punchbowl, Wiley Park and Lakemba on Saturday after authorities discovered plans for an attack to “bring down” an aircraft, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said in a televised press conference on Sunday. Air passengers should expect delays caused by additional security measures at screening points. “Some of the measures will be obvious to the public, some will not be,” Turnbull said.
  • China Bond Buyers Quiz Taxi Drivers to See If Credit Good. In China, taxi rides aren’t just a form of transportation any more. They’ve also become useful for bond buyers doing due diligence. Dining out at restaurants is also helpful. It’s all part of a boom in field trips by market participants coming to grips with a new reality in China: the potential for bond defaults. After decades when authorities effectively provided blanket assistance to keep troubled companies from going under, the Communist leadership’s focus on shuttering unproductive assets has upended the market. A total of 45 onshore corporate bonds have defaulted since the start of last year, a surge from the eight recorded in 2014 and 2015 -- which themselves were the first since the market was established in the 1980s. While China has the world’s third-largest bond market, corporate financial transparency can be limited, forcing investors to get creative.
  • China Factory Gauge Suggests Economic Momentum Faded in July. The manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 51.4 in July, compared to the 51.5 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and the 51.7 reading in June. The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 54.5 compared to 54.9 a month earlier.
  • Japan Industrial Output Rebounds in Sign of Further Recovery. A pick-up in global demand and a weak yen have helped Japanese exporters, lifting the nation’s economy to the longest run of expansion in a decade. Reports last week showed that household spending rose in June for the first time in more than a year, while retail sales gained for an eighth month, signaling that both output and consumption were reasonably healthy in the second quarter. Still, stronger gains in wages and inflation are needed to put the economic recovery onto a firmer footing.
  • Asia Stocks Open Little Changed; Oil Nudges $50. Asian stocks were little changed at the start of the trading week as raw-material producers advanced after a surge in commodity prices bolstered optimism the global economy can gather momentum. Oil extended last week’s strongest rally this year. Equity gauges in Japan and South Korea were little changed, while Australia’s benchmark advanced. A bout of volatility last week sent the Nasdaq 100 Index lower and S&P 500 Index lower. Oil added to gains from Friday, which came as inventories for crude and gasoline shrank. Copper’s rally has further to go, Citigroup Inc. said last week after the metal reached a two-year high while top producer Chile raised its price forecasts. Japan’s Topix index swung between gains and losses and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.1 percent. Contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index advanced 0.3 percent, while futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were 0.1 percent higher.
Wall Street Journal: 
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.75 +1.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 20.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.92 +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (AMG)/3.24
  • (DO)/.24
  • (ICPT)/-3.60
  • (L)/.71
  • (SOHU)/-1.29
  • (CGNX)/.54
  • (OI)/.67
  • (P)/-.24
  • (VNO)/1.26
Economic Releases 
9:45 am EST
  • The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for July is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 65.7 in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for June are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -.8% decline in May.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for July is estimated to fall to 13.0 versus 15.0 in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI report and the Australia Private Sector Credit report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 7:21 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, tax reform hopes and mostly positive earnings outlooks offset technical selling, profit-taking and geopolitical concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.
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Saturday, July 29, 2017

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 7:45 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Hamburg Attack Puts Merkel Refugee Policy Back in Spotlight. An attack in the northern city of Hamburg thrust Chancellor Angela Merkel’s refugee policy into the spotlight less than two months before Germany goes to the polls. Police were aware that the man suspected of a stabbing spree on Friday had shown of signs Islamic radicalization, Hamburg’s interior minister, Andy Grote, said in a press conference on Saturday. The attack in a supermarket in the Barmbek district left one man dead and six injured before bystanders overpowered the attacker. The 26-year-old suspect is a Palestinian citizen whose request for refugee status had been declined. He had been ordered out of the country but lacked the necessary documents to travel, Grote said, adding that a few hours before the attack the man had inquired whether his documents were ready. The suspect, who had shown signs of mental instability, is now in police custody.
  • Australia Foils Plot to ‘Bring Down’ Plane, Prime Minister Says. Australian counter-terrorism agencies have foiled a plot to “bring down” a plane in a terrorist attack, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says. Four men were arrested on Saturday night by counter-terrorism officers in raids on four Sydney properties over an alleged plot to blow up an aircraft.
  • U.K. Seeks Smoother Brexit to Keep ‘Life as Normal’ for Longer. (video) Prime Minister Theresa May is keeping Britain on track for a “hard” Brexit, but she wants the journey away from the European Union to be longer and smoother than initially planned. After weeks of wrangling since her Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority, May’s government still seems determined to leave the single market and customs union that give Britain free, frictionless trade with the bloc. What’s changed is that, according to Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, there’s now a consensus among senior ministers that even if the U.K. will departs the EU in March 2019, nothing should change the next day. Instead, the cabinet wants the status quo to run for two or three years.
  • Top German Automakers Sued in U.S. Over Two-Decade ‘Cartel’. German’s major automakers were accused in a U.S. lawsuit of acting as a cartel, colluding for nearly two decades to limit the pace of technological advances in their vehicles and stifle competition -- allegations that widen the scope of the latest scandal to hit the nation’s auto industry. BMW AG, Daimler AG, Volkswagen AG and its Audi and Porsche brands shared competitive information about vehicle technologies with one another from 1996 through at least 2015 in violation of antitrust laws, according to a complaint filed Friday in San Francisco federal court.
  • OPEC, Non-OPEC Nations to Meet on Compliance With Oil Targets. Representatives of some OPEC and non-OPEC nations will meet in Abu Dhabi as soon as next week to discuss why some of them are falling behind in their pledges to cut production, people familiar with the matter said. The meeting, co-chaired by Kuwait and Russia, will examine reasons why some countries aren’t fully implementing their cuts, the people said. Some nations will argue that the independent sources used by OPEC to assess compliance overestimate their production, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions aren’t public.
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (C), (AAP), (COG) and (HON).
  • Had bearish commentary on (TWTR), (AMZN) and (GOOGL).
Zero Hedge:
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