Sunday, September 24, 2017

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Merkel Chastised as Far-Right Surge Taints Fourth-Term Win. (video) Angela Merkel won a fourth term as German chancellor in a victory that was marred by the hollowing out of support for the two main parties and a surge for the populist AfD in a clear rebuke to her open-doors refugee policy. Both Merkel’s Christian Democrat-led bloc and her main challenger, Martin Schulz’s Social Democrats, plunged to historic lows as votes flowed to the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD, in a sign of the growing polarization in Europe’s biggest economy. Six parties are now poised to enter the lower house, the Bundestag, for the first time since 1953.
  • Euro Falls as Merkel Faces German Coalition Test After Win. (video) The euro slipped 0.4 percent to $1.1903 in early Monday trading in New Zealand. “Currencies are less liquid this early in the Asia session and the price action may be only the beginning of a more meaningful correction lower in euro crosses later today,” said Credit Agricole SA strategist Valentin Marinov.
  • Yen, Kiwi Drop as Politics in Focus; Stocks Mixed. (video) The yen declined on speculation Japan’s prime minister will press for a stimulus package alongside his expected call for a snap election -- sending the nation’s stocks higher. The kiwi and euro both slid initially as ballot results foreshadowed potentially complex political coalition building. New Zealand’s vote kicked off what could be weeks of coalition-building talks, weighing on the currency amid disappointment the ruling party failed to get a majority. The euro was modestly weaker against the dollar after Chancellor Angela Merkel won Germany’s election with a smaller share of the vote, with focus on a surprisingly strong result for a far-right party. South Korea’s currency rose as concerns over North Korean tensions faded, despite fresh rhetorical exchanges with the U.S. over the weekend. Japan’s Topix index advanced 0.5 percent as of 9:30 a.m. Tokyo time. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was up 0.3 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index swung between gains and losses. Contracts on Hang Seng Index futures were up 0.1 percent.
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
  • Trump Says He Wants 15% Corporate Tax Rate Despite Plan for 20%. (video) Republican tax negotiators are targeting a corporate tax rate of 20 percent, according to two people familiar with the matter -- but there’s at least one potential obstacle: President Donald Trump. “We’ll see what happens, but I hope it’s going to be 15 percent,” Trump told reporters Sunday as he prepared to return to Washington after a weekend in New Jersey. The current corporate tax rate is 35 percent. Meanwhile, the group of administration officials and congressional leaders that’s planning a framework for tax legislation is also expected to recommend cutting the top individual tax rate to 35 percent, down from 39.6 percent, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.5 +.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 16.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.60 +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (RHT)/.67
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. 
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for September is estimated to fall to 11.5 versus 17.0 in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, German IFO, Johnson Rice Energy Conference, Cantor Fitzgerald Healthcare Conference and the (TOT) Investor Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as oil strength, tax reform hopes and yen weakness offsets geopolitical fears, diminished healthcare reform hopes and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • China Cities Tighten Home-Sale Rules to Tame Property Market. Several large Chinese cities including Shijiazhuang, Chongqing, Nanchang, Nanning and Guiyang are imposing restrictions on home resales as part of the nation’s campaign to cool its heated property sector. Chongqing will ban sales of new and existing residential properties in downtown areas within two years of purchase, according to a statement on the city’s housing authority website. The move seeks to curb speculative investment and boost healthy development of the property market, it said late Friday. The measure takes effect from Sept. 23.
  • New Earthquake, Magnitude 6.1, Shakes Jittery Mexico.
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (ONCE), (AVXS), (ORCL), (GPRO), (RGNX), (VYGR), (BOLD) and (PFE).
  • Had bearish commentary on (SIX).
Zero Hedge:

Friday, September 22, 2017

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,499.51 -.03%


























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 22,331.30 +.25%
  • NASDAQ 6,422.63 -.41%
  • Russell 2000 1,450.53 +1.35%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 38.74 +1.74%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 137.91 -.39%
  • Wilshire 5000 25,908.33 +.14%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,248.47 -.31%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,158.61 +.42%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 555.33 -2.38%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3323 +.81%
  • NYSE Technology 1,582.14 -.11%
  • Transports 9,703.84 +1.66%
  • Utilities 727.25 -2.58%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 100.92 +1.74%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 45.39 +.02%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,231.77 +.30%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,007.85 -.14%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 302,434 +.41%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 371-22
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 47.92 -27.1%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 374,480 -2.0%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,345,125 +.80%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -12.15%
  • OEX Put/Call .65 +25.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 77.0 +1.39%
  • NYSE Arms 1.15 -5.0%
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.94 -2.16%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 23.62 +.72%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.89 +2.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.89 +2.73%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,684.46 +.21%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.724 Trillion -.53%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.201 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 40.1 -2.8%
  • AAII % Bears 27.2 +23.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 188.47 -.37%
  • Crude Oil 50.49 +1.30%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 166.22 -.05%
  • Natural Gas 2.96 -2.34%
  • Heating Oil 181.21 +.82%
  • Gold 1,294.10 -1.95%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 196.35 +1.13%
  • Copper 294.40 -.22%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 287.0 USD/Ton +1.89%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.56 USD/Ton -11.9%
  • Lumber 393.60 +3.76%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,037.78 -.63%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.2 -80.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +0.0% -30.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.4951 +7.26% 
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 143.66 +12.85%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 140.76 +.01%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.8 +10.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.4 +31.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.50 +.6 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 85.5% chance of no change, 14.5% chance of 25 basis point hike on 11/1
  • US Dollar Index 92.17 +.36%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,637.57 -.53%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.62 +1.12%
  • Yield Curve 82.0 unch.
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.26% +6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.418 Trillion -.29%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.87 -.17%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 338.62 +1.16%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 5.06 +2.33%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 16.03 -12.4%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 40.40 -1.25%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.82 +7.06%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.98 +4.96%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 146.81 +11.09%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.84 +.08%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.85% -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 30.50 +1.5 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.75 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.0 -7.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 60.19 +6.74%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 431.0 +3.49%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.20 +22.25%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 188.48 +11.3%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 152.0 +2.0 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.577 Trillion +.37%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,043.90 +2.0%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 263,250 +5,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.83% +5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 417.50 -9.7%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 50.60 -1.3 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.1% -30.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.59/gallon -.o5/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,470.0 +6.14%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 812.38 -1.38%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 270,003 +13.2%
Best Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Value +1.5%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Growth -.4%
Leading Sectors
  • Defense +6.0%
  • Banks +3.4%
  • Energy +2.5%
  • Networking +1.4%
  • Gaming +1.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Hospitals -2.3% 
  • Utilities -2.3%
  • Gold & Silver -2.8%
  • Steel -3.3%
  • HMOs -4.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (27)
  • MRTX, VERI, CCC, ALNY, SSNI, OA, VSAR, QDEL, MTOR, SELB, COHU, RGR, EGL, BOBE, STML, SCWX, ASMB, FELE, OSBC, ESTE, CACQ, SPAR, UVSP, NVDA, AIR, EBIX and ITRI
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (20)
  • CLXT, GTHX, ATNI, ANSS, VDSI, WOW, UBNT, SCHL, EVHC, ORCL, AYI, AGN, XLRN, UNIT, RCII, BEAT, ICPT, SMCI, SUPN and BBBY
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change