Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.4% 2) Telecom -.9% 3) Alt Energy -.50%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EDU, INSM, WWD, JKS, KODK, VALE, BRFS and AJRD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SGYP 2) BHGE 3) ABT 4) HBAN 5) PG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GPRO 2) CREE 3) CAL 4) RDC 5) CTRP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +1.5% 2) Biotech +1.3% 3) Internet +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LOGI, DRNA, RMD, WRLD, SIEN, NFLX, CRSP, HAWK, GOOS, TBK, LPL, CENT, WAGE, PETS, AMBC, RCKT, TMST, ATI, MAC, MDCO, VEDL, TRV, WHR, WYNN, ACAD, EVTC, TSRO, NFLX, RARE, ATRA, COLL, TRHC, FOLD, SPPI, ALNY, INSY, PETS, PSTG and WHR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LABD 2) LVS 3) AMTD 4) VWO 5) FXI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NFLX 2) RMD 3) PANW 4) NVDA 5) HAL

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +23.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 45.7% of Issues Advancing, 50.4% Declining
• 221 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 65.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.0%
• Vix 11.1 +.3%
• Total Put/Call .49 -44.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.11 +53.2%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.25 -.25 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.75 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.71 -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ATI)/.14
• (FITB)/.48
• (JNJ)/1.72
• (KMB)/1.54
• (PG)/1.14
• (STT)/1.70
• (TRV)/1.51
• (VZ)/.88
• (WAT)/2.45
• (CNI)/1.23
• (COF)/1.85
• (CREE)/.01
• (TXN)/1.12
• (UAL)/1.29

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for January is estimated to fall to 19.0 versus 20.0 in December.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Evans speaking, BoJ rate decision, NAFTA Talks Round 6, Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index, German ZEW Index, weekly US retail sales results, $26B 2Y T-Note auction, World Economic Forum, Blockchain Davos Conference and the (UAL) year-end results discussion could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Govt. Shutdown Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Energy/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.0 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.77 +.55%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.01 +.25%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.0 -.06%

• ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 -19.5%
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -2.33%

• NYSE Arms .87 -21.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.17 -.73%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 320.0 -1.43%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 42.42 -1.71%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.5 -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.70 +1.37%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 112.95 -.56%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.81 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 32.0 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.25 -1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.2 +.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.41% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 59.25 +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 72.95 USD/Metric Tonne -2.07%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.90 -10.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 51.10 -3.5 basis points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.10 -.9 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 unch.
  
• 86.9% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 87.4% chance at May 2 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +114 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +82 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Big Global Oil Projects Are Starting to Get Off the Ground. The global oil industry’s backlog of big drilling projects is starting to shrink as prices improve. From production vessels tapping Brazil’s deep-water reserves to pipes connecting rigs to underwater wells in China, the number of ventures delayed since the oil crash that finally got approval to get off the ground totaled 18 last year, according to a report by consultant Rystad Energy. That compares with only five in 2016 and two in 2015. That’s a start, but there are still 104 delayed oil and gas projects waiting for investment approval, according to Rystad.

Wall Street Journal:

• Government Shutdown: Live Update.
• Single-Payer Health Care Isn’t Worth Waiting For. An orthopedic surgeon challenges Canada’s ban on most privately funded procedures.
• Large Airlines Flock Back to Midsize Cities. Lower fuel prices, competition from discount carriers increase the appeal of flying to smaller markets.\
• Big Drugmakers Pay Big Prices for Promising Biotechs. Lofty premiums Celgene and Sanofi shelled out in Monday’s biotech deals show need for quick revenue.
• With Online Luxury in Vogue, Richemont Snaps Up Yoox Net-a-Porter. Swiss owner of Cartier brand to spend up to $3.3 billion to take full control of e-commerce group.

MarketWatch.com:

• The bitcoin bubble now dwarfs tulips and dot-com stocks, Goldman(GS) warns.
• Here’s how Wall Street’s favorite oil stocks have performed.
• This troubling stat should put crypto investors on high alert.
• Why Apple’s(AAPL) Tim Cook doesn’t want his nephew to use social networks.
• The IPO market is on track for its best start to the year in more than a decade.

Fox News:

• Republicans hope to release 'jaw-dropping' memo on surveillance abuses. (video)

CNBC:

• Vanguard chief: You will never see a bitcoin fund from us. (video)
• Biotech's $20 billion Merger Monday sparks hope for more deals. (video) RBC Capital Markets surveyed investors in December. Their top takeout picks: Clovis (CLVS - cancer), Sage (SAGE - neuroscience), Puma Biotechnology(PUMA - cancer), Bluebird (BLUE - rare diseases and cancer), and Anavex (AVXL - rare diseases).
• Trump has packed federal courts in his first year, pleasing once-wary conservatives. (video)
• Trump's weak poll numbers don't tell the real story.
• Atlanta and these four other cities are most likely to get Amazon’s new headquarters: Tech analyst.
• The regular investor can now trade the stock market 24 hours a day with TD Ameritrade(AMTD).
• Bitcoin tanks more than 10% to below $11,000; South Korea announces details on crypto tax. (video)
• Google(GOOGL) and Facebook(FB) unveil big investments in France.
• US tax system overhaul likely to boost InterContinental Hotels and the global economy: CEO. (video)
• Yahoo(YHOO) co-founder Jerry Yang says Apple is the most successful US company in China.

Zero Hedge:

• Senate Votes To End Government Shutdown: Stocks Surge To New All Time High.
• IMF Raises Global GDP Outlook To Highest In 7 Years Thanks To Trump Tax Cuts.
• Who's Lying: FBI Says 5 Months Of Texts "Lost," Yet IG Horowitz Says His Office Received Them In August.
• White House Leaks Draft Of Trump's $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan.
• Stocks, Dollar Surge As Senate Reaches Deal To End Government Shutdown. (graph)
• Cryptocurrencies Leg Lower After South Korean Tax Headlines. (graph)
• Uber CEO: "Expect Flying Cars In 10 Years".
• VP Pence Confirms US Will No Longer Certify Iran Deal.