Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Trump Slams Erdogan Over Syria Attack, Warns of Clash With U.S. President Donald Trump warned Turkey against expanding its military offensive against U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, telling President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that such action could lead to direct conflict with U.S. forces, the White House said. Trump urged Turkey “to deescalate, limit its military actions, and avoid civilian casualties and increases to displaced persons and refugees,” the White House said Wednesday in a readout of Trump’s call with Erdogan. “He urged Turkey to exercise caution and to avoid any actions that might risk conflict between Turkish and American forces.”
  • Asia Stocks Point Lower as Davos Talk Roils Dollar. Asian shares are set to open lower Thursday after Trump administration official’s rhetoric on trade and the dollar roiled financial markets, sending the U.S. currency to its lowest level in three years and whipsawing stocks that had been buoyed by strong earnings. The S&P 500 closed flat after swinging between gains and losses. The threat of tit-for-tat tariffs weighed on technology stocks and industrial shares also fell. Futures in Australia and Japan point to declines. The yen pushed through 109 per dollar and Treasuries dropped. Commodities surged, with West Texas Intermediate oil climbing above $65 a barrel for the first time in more than three years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.3 percent as of 6:18 a.m. Tokyo time. ASX 200 futures declined 0.3 percent, the biggest drop in more than a week. Nikkei 225 futures in Osaka fell 0.8 percent to the lowest in more than a week. Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose less than 0.05 percent.
  • Oil Companies to Reopen Their Checkbooks as Brent Surpasses $70. After more than three years of belt-tightening, a resurgence in crude prices has fueled oil-company optimism, and a readiness to reopen the checkbook. More than two-thirds of 813 senior oil executives expect increased capital spending in 2018, double last year’s percentage, according to a survey by Norwegian consultants DNV GL. About a third say research and development budgets will rise, and the same number predict hiring will expand.
  • Sam's Club Further Shakes Up Operations After Closing Stores. Sam’s Club is restructuring its product-purchasing team, marking the second big shake-up for the Wal-Mart Stores Inc. unit this month. A spokeswoman said the warehouse club retailer will consolidate what had been six buying roles into three: merchant, senior merchant and divisional merchandise manager. The reshuffle, effective Feb. 3, will not result in a loss of jobs.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com
CNBC: 
Business Insider:
NY Post:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 +.75 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 76.44 +.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (MMM)/2.03
  • (ALK)/.83
  • (AAL)/.92
  • (BIIB)/5.45
  • (CAT)/1.78
  • (CELG)/1.99
  • (CLF)/.18
  • (FCAU)/.64
  • (FCX)/.50
  • (JBLU)/.34
  • (LLL)/2.28
  • (NOC)/2.73
  • (NVR)/48.04
  • (OSK)/.56
  • (PX)/1.48
  • (RTN)/2.04
  • (SHW)/3.16
  • (LUV)/.77
  • (UNP)/1.54
  • (ETFC)/.61
  • (INTC)/.87
  • (ISRG)/2.27
  • (KLAC)/1.73
  • (MXIM)/.65
  • (MSTR)/1.21
  • (SBUX)/.57
  • (WDC)/3.82
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 235K versus 220K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1925K versus 1952K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for December are estimated to fall to 675K versus 733K in November.
  • The Leading Index for December is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in November.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for January is estimated at 14.0 versus 14.0 in December.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German IFO index, Japan inflation data, $28B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlooks, Yen Strength, Profit-Taking, Airline/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.4 +2.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.94 -.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.02 -.87%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.71 -.44%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -1.0%
  • Total Put/Call .83 +26.7%
  • NYSE Arms .54 -63.74%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.67 +.66%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 305.0 -2.20%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 42.26 +.37%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.58 -.28%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 113.50 -1.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.09 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 -2.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 30.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 76.38 +.86%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.43% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 57.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 73.15 USD/Metric Tonne +.80%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.70 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.10 +6.3 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.90 -.2 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 +2.0 basis points
  • 88.5% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 88.8% chance at May 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -190 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Wall Street Chiefs Don’t Think Central Bankers Will Ruin Their Party. (video) Wall Street is betting incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell and fellow central bankers can pull back the punch bowl without spoiling the party too much. Speaking at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, finance chiefs said in interviews on Wednesday that they expected central bankers to be able to tighten monetary policy while avoiding a crash in markets or the global economy. “People are worried about the number of Fed increases that might happen this year,’’ James Gorman, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, told Bloomberg Television. “I’m not, I think it’s healthy.’’
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: