Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -.4% 2) Paper unch. 3) Shipping +.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ACAD, MTG, YNDX, ESNT, NMIH, RDN, SVU, ACGL, TSRO and VNDA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RSX 2) TZA 3) AYI 4) CNX 5) INCY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ACAD 2) MNLO 3) MTG 4) NLNK 5) CRZO

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +3.1% 2) Semis +3.0% 3) Banks +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AVXS, RGNX, NCNA, INCY, LUK, PCRX, ONCE, NOBL, EEFT, CHL, NVS, WLKP, NDSN, WVE, BOLD, AA, MNTAQ, MRK, DEO and CENX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AVGO 2) RSX 3) ARRY 4) COP 5) CLVS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RGNX 2) LUK 3) PCRX 4) IRWD 5) MRK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -20.7% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 56.9% of Issues Advancing, 39.1% Declining
• 12 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 38.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.9%
• Vix 21.2 -1.2%
• Total Put/Call 1.08 +6.9%
• TRIN/Arms .92 -69.5%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Says ‘Price to Pay’ in Syria After Vowing to Pull Out. President Donald Trump warned of a “big price to pay” in response to reports of a chemical attack outside Syria’s capital, days after he said he wanted to quickly end the U.S. military presence in the war-torn Middle East country. Rescue workers and activists said dozens died in a chemical assault amid renewed fire by Bashar al-Assad’s government on a rebel stronghold near Damascus. The use of chemical weapons in April 2017 provoked a U.S. missile strike, the first direct American hit on Assad’s regime since the conflict in Syria began in March 2011. While Trump has said he wants U.S. troops out of Syria “very soon,” he posted tweets Sunday condemning the attack, and saying Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran “are responsible for backing Animal Assad.”

• Trump Vows China `Will Take Down Its Trade Barriers'. President Donald Trump said China will relax its trade restrictions in response to U.S. pressure “because it’s the right thing to do,” as the world’s largest economies teeter on the brink of a trade war that’s unsettled global financial markets and sent the U.S. stock market reeling. “China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do,” Trump said on Twitter early Sunday. “Taxes will become reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property.” 

• World's Top Iron Shipper Says China's Import Boom Will Level Off.

• China’s Foreign Reserves Rise on Yuan Gains, Capital Curbs.  

• Asia Stocks Mixed as Trade in Focus; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap. Benchmarks were little changed in Japan, Australia and South Korea. Chinese equity markets are due to reopen after a holiday, with traders getting their first chance to react to President Donald Trump’s order for a review of additional tariffs that prompted an aggressive response from China. The yen fluctuated ahead of remarks Monday by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at the start of his second term. While Friday’s selloff left U.S. stocks teetering on a key support level, futures on the S&P 500 Index climbed in early trading. Japan’s Topix index fluctuated as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed. Hang Seng Index futures were up 0.4 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.4 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump Officials Soften Tone on Trade Dispute With China. Administration plays down talk of a worsening conflict, saying no penalties are imminent.

• Apple(AAPL), Amazon(AMZN) and Google(GOOGL) Also Are Bracing for Privacy Regulations. U.S. technology companies have stayed largely exempt from significant government regulation and self-policing of privacy, but that is about to change. 

• Many Investors Aren’t Losing Sleep Over the Tech Rout.

• Cracks Form in Global Growth Story, Rattling Investors.

• Food-Stamp Fight Imperils Farm Bill.

• Kinder Morgan Threatens to Halt Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion.

MarketWatch.com:

• Buyer traffic rising as real-estate agents report concern over mortgage rates, inventory.

Fox News:

• Trump slams Obama over not crossing 'red line' in Syria with 'Animal Assad'. (video)

• Kim Jong Un willing to discuss getting rid of North Korea's nukes, US says.

CNBC: 

• Trump hails friendship with China's Xi, suggests country will negotiate over trade spat.  

• Trump says embattled EPA chief Pruitt's expenses are justified because he received 'death threats'.

• Republican senator says Facebook scandals may be 'too big' for company to fix alone.

• US says suspected chemical attack in Syria that killed dozens could demand an international response.

• Facebook(FB) suspends another data analytics firm after CNBC discovers it was using tactics like Cambridge Analytica.

• Today’s youth reject capitalism, but what do they want to replace it?

Zero Hedge: 

• Trump Threatens Putin, "Animal Assad" Over Syrian "Chemical Attack"; Russia Warns Of "Grave" Response If US Launches Strike.

• In Tweetstorm, Trump Vows China Will Cave In Trade War "Because It's The Right Thing To Do". 

• "Hit Their Stocks": Chinese Press Warns Of "Ample Weapons" To Win US Trade War. (graph)

• London Mayor Unveils New Stop-And-Frisk Police Policy To Enforce City-Wide Knife Ban.

• John Cryan Fired As Deutsche Bank(DB) CEO; Replaced By Retail Bank Head Sewing.

• Preliminary Nafta Deal Won't Be Ready In Time For Pan-American Summit.

• Deutsche Bank Preparing To Replace CEO John Cryan With Retail Banking Head.

• Kudlow: White House Planning Cuts To $1.3 Trillion Omnibus Spending Bill.

• Retail Real Estate Bubble Turns Manhattan Into A "Shopping Wasteland".

• Twitter(TWTR) CEO Endorses Leftist Blueprint To Drive Conservatives From Public Life.

Business Insider:

• German police foil half-marathon terror plot as they arrest 1 man who 'planned to knife spectators and participants'. 

• There's a record-setting disconnect in markets right now — and it has stocks spring-loaded for a recovery. 

• Walmart.com(WMT) blows Amazon(AMZN) out of the water in one key way.

Telegraph:

• The eurozone is already heading back into recession – and that could be catastrophic.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.0 +.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.25 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.80 unch. 

• FTSE 100 futures +.4%.

• S&P 500 futures +.5%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.66%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (SIGM)/-.21

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Germany Trade Balance report, (PSMT) monthly sales report and (WWE) business update call could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as earnings optimism, bargain-hunting and technical buying offset trade war fears, yen strength and rising geopolitical tensions. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlnes

Bloomberg:

• Among Europe’s Elite, Trump Trade Talk Earns Grudging Support. No one likes trade wars but U.S. President Donald Trump is starting to win some grudging support among European and global business elites as he moves to put China’s trade practices in the spotlight. Investors and economists attending the annual Ambrosetti Spring workshop along the shores of Italy’s Lake Como voiced concern about protectionist saber-rattling between the U.S. and China. Yet several admitted that some of Trump’s complaints about unfair competition from China ring true.

• Kashkari Says Fed Watching U.S.-China Spat as Markets Shudder.

• Evans Says Fed Should Keep Raising If Inflation Nears 2 Percent.

• Trump Rattles Stocks With His Tweets.

• S&P 500 Selloff Puts Key Technical Support Line Back in Play. (graph)

Wall Street Journal:

• The Architect of Trump’s Threatened China Trade War. U.S. Trade Rep Bob Lighthizer argued that years of negotiation with Beijing had produced little and now the time had come for a confrontational approach.

• Justice Department Probes Colleges’ Early-Decision Admission Practices. Multiple schools received letters inquiring about possible antitrust violations.

• Would Legalized Sports Betting Help States Get Out of the Hole? With Supreme Court ruling expected soon, more legislatures consider allowing wagers on sports.

• Trump Takes Steps to Tighten Rules on Illegal Immigration. President moves to give agencies more power to deport people quickly, as the Pentagon orders up to 4,000 National Guard troops to the Mexican border.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (GOOGL), (OLED) and (IAC).

• Had bearish commentary on (FB), (QCOM), (SYNA), (SWKS), (QRVO) and (AAPL).

Fox News:

• Fire erupts at Trump Tower in New York City. (video)

CNBC:

• Former self-proclaimed 'super bull' sours on economic growth, sees 'good old fashioned slowdown' in the works. (video)

• Trump's tariff gamble with China could be catastrophic for the economy, the GOP — and his own presidency.

• Boeing(BA) wins $12 billion contract to supply jets for American Airlines, beating Airbus.

• China applies its own maximum pressure policy on Pyongyang.

• Conservative Koch brothers network breaks with Trump over brewing trade war with China.

• The steadily disappearing American car.

Zero Hedge:

• Texas National Guard Deploying To Border Within 72 Hours; DOJ Enacts "Zero Tolerance" Policy.

• US Deploys Three Carrier Battle Groups To Face-Off Against Chinese Aircraft Carrier In South China Sea.

• Facebook(FB) Gave Money To 85% Of House Committee "Questioning" Zuckerberg Next Week.

• "You Failed Us": Parkland Shooting Hero Slams Broward Sheriff After Emerging From Hospital.

• DHS Creates Database To Track Journalists, Bloggers, "Media Influencers", Calls Critics "Conspiracy Theorists".

• Illinois Town Bypasses Constitution, US Citizens Given 60 Days To Turn In Guns Or Become Criminals.

• Global Trade War Could Not Have Come At A Worse Time. (graph)

• A Therapist Explains What Happens When People Try To Quit Psychiatric Meds.

• America's Credit-Card Fueled Spending Spree Hits A Brick Wall. (graph)

• Market Volatility Jumps To 7 Year High As Global Economic Data Slumps. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• 7 horrible things that could happen to cities if they win Amazon's(AMZN) HQ2 bid.

• You should stop using Facebook(FB) Messenger until it proves it's worthy of your trust.

• 3 people dead, 20 injured after van plows into crowd in Germany.