Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -25.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 75.0% of Issues Advancing, 21.8% Declining
• 105 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 48.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.9%
• Vix 13.9 -7.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.04 +14.3%
• TRIN/Arms .80 -2.9%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 +3.0 basis points. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 15.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.66 unch.
• FTSE 100 futures +.25%.
• S&P 500 futures -.04%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for May is estimated at -$43.7B versus -$46.2B in April.
• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated at 195K versus 223K in May.
• The Unemployment Report for June is estimated at 3.8% versus 3.8% in May.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versu a +.3% gain in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Industrial Production report and US tariffs against China could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.26 -5.45%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.58 +.41%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.52 -.31%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.0 -5.01%

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 -23.68%
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -14.55%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 -2.21%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.44 -1.50%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 398.0 -.05%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.98 -2.87%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.0 +10.0 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.94 +.44%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.02 -4.23%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.28 +.11%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 unch.

• TED Spread 38.75 +2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.68 +.37%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.95% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 28.25 -.25 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 63.23 USD/Metric Tonne +.41%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.50 +1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.20 +5.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.0 +2.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +1.0 basis point
  
• 82.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 82.5% chance at November 8th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +179 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -84 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/retail/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

•   Mid-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) I-Banks -.5% 2) Education -.5% 3) Papers -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EFJ, TIVO, IBKR, IQ, BILI and SUPN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HMNY 2) AKRX 3) CL 4) HIG 5) GERN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CLNE 2) TAL 3) NEP 4) ESPR 5) PCG

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +2.4% 2) Steel +2.3% 3) Gaming +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IEFA, EFV, AZZ, ISCA, PFBC, CREE, CVG, EFAV, BIP, IGV, AVX, SNY, SUPV, EZU, DQ, FNKO, KIDS, EHIC, ZLAB, CTS, NVS, RUN, PAG, CG, CSTM and PAG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MCK 2) CREE 3) ZAYO 4) VNOM 5) EWW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SDRL 2) XPLR 3) QRVO 4) VLRX 5) CREE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.4% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 54.5% of Issues Advancing, 40.5% Declining
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 46.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.4%
• Vix 15.4 -4.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.0 -9.1%
• TRIN/Arms .88 -18.5%