Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:     
  • Asian Stocks Gain on Trade Deal; Yen Advances. Asian stocks climbed, tracking gains in U.S. shares, after President Donald Trump reached an agreement with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker aimed at averting a transatlantic trade war. The yen climbed and the dollar retained its losses. Equities from Tokyo to Hong Kong advanced after the S&P 500 Index rose to within 1 percent of a fresh record high, with the two sides agreeing to suspend new tariffs while negotiating over trade. The yield on 10-year Treasuries edged lower while the Japanese equivalent ticked up to levels matching those reached at the start of this week amid speculation the Bank of Japan is paving the way for a change in policy. The offshore yuan strengthened amid signs of further policy easing. Weak sales at Facebook dragged Nasdaq futures lower. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.8 percent as of 10:30 a.m. in Tokyo. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.6 percent. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.9 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index slid 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge gained 0.9 percent Wednesday. Nasdaq futures sank 0.6 percent.
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 -4.25 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.75 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.17 +.08%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.24%
  • S&P 500 futures -.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.67%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (APD)/1.84
  • (ALK)/1.63
  • (ALXN)/1.70
  • (AB)/.59
  • (MO)/1.00
  • (AAL)/1.59
  • (BUD)/1.12
  • (BAX)/.71
  • (BWA)/1.10
  • (BMY)/.87
  • (CELG)/2.11
  • (CME)/1.72
  • (CMCSA)/.60
  • (COP)/1.10
  • (DHI)/1.08
  • (IP)/1.10
  • (LLL)/2.30
  • (LEA)/4.99
  • (MA)/2.53
  • (MLM)/2.87
  • (MCD)/1.92
  • (MCK)/2.89
  • (NEM)/.24
  • (PX)/1.70
  • (PHM)/.74
  • (RTN)/2.36
  • (LUV/1.24
  • (UA)/-.08
  • (VLO)/1.98
After the Close:
  • (AFL)/.99
  • (AMZN)/2.53
  • (AMGN)3.56
  • (BZH)/.39
  • (CMG)/2.81
  • (DECK)-1.42
  • (EA)/.06
  • (EXPE)/.90
  • (FII)/.59
  • (FSLR)/-.03
  • (INTC)/.97
  • (JNPR)/.44
  • (LRCX)/4.94
  • (SBUX)/.60
  • (WDC)/3.51
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$67.0B versus -$64.8B in May.
  • Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in May.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for June.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 207K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1733K versus 1751K prior.
  • Durable Goods Orders for June are estimated to rise +3.0% versus a -.4% decline in May.
  • Durables Ex Transports for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus unch. in May.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in May.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July is estimated to fall to 25.0 versus 28.0 om June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB Rate Decision/Press Conference, Japan CPI report, Australian Import/Export Price reports, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the $30B 7Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close Sharply Higher on Diminishing Trade War Worries, Positive Earnings Outlooks, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.3 -2.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.0 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.13 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.47 +.14%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +39.5%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -10.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 +.51%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.03 -1.65%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 370.0 -2.03%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.09 -1.40%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 228.25 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.74 +2.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.35 -3.51%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.83 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 34.0 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.07 +.67%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.99% unch.
  • Yield Curve 28.75 -2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.96 USD/Metric Tonne -.39%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.40 -4.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.80 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.8 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 +1.0 basis point
  • 80.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 81.3% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +36 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +56 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +136 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -3.3% 2) Tobacco -.7% 3) Agriculture -.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • HMNY, FCAU, TZOO, LAD, UMBF, OC, TUP, PII, NOC, GM, STM, WHR, BHE, NYCB, NOC, IART, FNKO, AXL, BZH, MKSI, PII and ACOR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IRBT 2) CCK 3) GRUB 4) GLW 5) PAA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ACOR 2) GM 3) LAD 4) WHR 5) HRL
Charts: