Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)

• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg.

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as profit-taking, less dovish FOMC commentary and European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst offset short-covering, oil strength and technical buying. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• France’s Le Maire Calls for Europe Compromise on IMF Leader.

• Trump Says Fed ‘Doesn’t Have a Clue’.    

• SocGen Chairman Warns Economic Risks Are Building in Europe.

• Germany Faces Pressure to Spend as Economic Risks Grow in Europe.

• Rate-Cut Bets Are On the Line as Traders Tune In to Fed Speakers.

• The EU’s Next Crop of Leaders, Tanks in D.C.: Weekend Reads.

• Deutsche Bank Culls Top Leadership  

• Bill Gates Says Steve Jobs Cast ‘Spells’ to Keep Apple From Dying.

Wall Street Journal:

• Congress Targets Chinese-Made Drones.

• Lawmakers Push for New Bitcoin Rules.

• A Former Airline CEO Is Aiming to Fix Amtrak.

• Jobs Report Weakens Case for Larger Fed Rate Cut This Month.

• Instagram Turns Obscure U.S. Sights Into Social-Media Destinations.

MarketWatch.com:

• Alarming scenes from the 7.1 magnitude Southern California earthquake.

Fox News:

• Dems now using language of right to push policies of left: pollster.

• New 7.1 earthquake hits California with shaking felt in LA, Las Vegas and northern Mexico.

• Kamala Harris announces $100B plan for black homeownership, tackling racial wealth gap.

CNBC:

• Here’s where the jobs are — in one chart.

• How Kamala Harris became one of the richest contenders in the 2020 presidential field.

• Are Beyond Meat’s plant-based burgers healthier than red meat? Dietitians say no.

Zero Hedge:

• State Of Emergency Declared After 7.1 Quake Rocks Southern California; Massive Aftershocks Shake Towns.

• Credit Derivatives Are Losing Popularity As Corporate Bond Managers Shift To ETFs For Hedging.

• The Homegrown Crisis California Refuses To Own.

• Starbucks Kicks Cops Out On 4th Of July After Customer "Did Not Feel Safe" .

• Heartland: Just Say No To Nike And AOC.

• Forget Rates, The Fed Is Still Quantitative-Tightening At A Record Pace.

• Berlin's Government Is Making Housing Unaffordable.

• Binary Choice: No Deal Brexit Or Good Deal Brexit.

• How Advanced Robotics Will Impact Job Markets.

• Carmageddon Continues: New Vehicle Sales Plunge To "Horribly Mature" 1999 Levels.

• Japan Is Once Again Inflating A Massive Real Estate Bubble.

• Media Predictions Of "Tiny Crowd" For Trump July 4 Speech Proven Spectacularly Wrong.

• It Wasn't All Great News: Multiple Jobholders Soar To Record High.

• Trump Spoke To Powell For 5 Minutes On May 20, Following Phone Calls In March And April.

• Where Do Most Immigrants To The US Come From: The Surprising Answer.

• Conservative Grad Laments "I've Spent The Last Four Years Defending Myself".

• "Good" News On Jobs Sparks Selling In Stocks, Bonds, & Gold; Dollar Surged.

Business Insider: 

• An American Tour de France team has barred its riders from using cellphones at the dinner table during the 3-week race.

• Silicon Valley tech talent is flocking to Austin, Texas, trading sky-high rent costs for live music and a newer tech scene — here's what it's like in 'Silicon Hills'.

• The last major opponent of China's Muslim oppression has retreated into silence. Here's why that's a big deal.

• The 25 best states to live for 20-somethings, where jobs are booming and rent is affordable.

The Telegraph:

• Business confidence slumps with no end in sight to Brexit deadlock.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,990.41 +2.17%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 26,933.29 +1.49%

• NASDAQ 8,164.68 +2.40%

• Russell 2000 1,573.09 +1.76%

• S&P 500 High Beta 43.17 +1.79%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 156.25 +3.4%

• Wilshire 5000 30,735.83 +2.26%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,618.74 +2.41%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,269.41 +2.0%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 609.85 +2.16%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,096.86 +.42%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,952.38 +2.25%

• Transports 10,492.89 +1.72%

• Utilities 823.30 +2.11%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.07 +3.89%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.06 +.38%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,227.82 +.79%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 962.86 +.23%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 364,625 +1.77%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 591 -216

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 57.1 -16.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 378,803 +4.3%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,004,961 +.07%

• Total Put/Call .91 +19.1%

• OEX Put/Call .14 -95.1%

• ISE Sentiment 121.0 +25.5%

• NYSE Arms .63 -46.1%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.3 -10.24%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.89 -8.56%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.64 -9.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.62 -6.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,140.18 +1.46%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.192 Trillion +.25%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$5.028 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 33.2 +12.1%

• AAII % Bears 32.4 +.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 180.68 -1.03%

• Crude Oil 57.31 -3.8%

• Reformulated Gasoline 192.88 -.59%

• Natural Gas 2.43 +4.35%

• Heating Oil 190.74 -2.92%

• Gold 1,400.30 -.98%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 171.79 -2.1%

• Copper 266.25 -2.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 310.0 USD/Metric Tonne +7.64%

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.99 USD/Metric Tonne -3.69%

• Lumber 384.50 +1.08%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 899.10 -.92%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.31% -57.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.9% +40.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0312 +16.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 57.1 -53.2%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 175.02 -.14%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -58.50 +9.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.90 -5.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -35.60 -3.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply .5% chance of no change, 99.5% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/31

• US Dollar Index 97.31 +1.11%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,651.14 +.08%

• Bitcoin/USD 11,092.65 -6.82%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.47 -.77%

• Yield Curve 17.5 -7.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.04% -2.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.787 Trillion -.46%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.87 -.13%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 130.98 -.01%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 211.0 -32.0 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.19 -5.36%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.56 n/a
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.86 +6.5%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.15 -4.53%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 111.82 -2.07%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.55 +.26%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68% -2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 13.0 -9.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 3.25 -2.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.0 -5.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.68 -1.74%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 604.0 +.5%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 60.37 -5.23%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 163.89 -2.67%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.832 Trillion -.46%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,163.90 +3.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 222,250 +7,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.75% +2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 518.10 -.12%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 62.6 +.8 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.20% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.76/gallon +.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,700.0 +25.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 815.01 -.48%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 -11.11%

• Rail Freight Carloads 271,749 +1.67%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +4.1%

• Banks +3.7%

• Shipping +3.3%

• Biotech +3.1%

• Telecom +3.1%

Lagging Sectors

• Semis -.2% 

• Video Gaming -.5%

• Energy -.8%

• Gold & Silver -2.0%

• Steel -2.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (1)

• ADVM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (1)

• CGNX

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change