Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:50 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -1.1% 2) Tobacco -.5% 3) Drugs -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • IRBT, HCSG, SGEN, ROL, EEFT, TUP, WSBC, SIX, CAT, FLIR, APH and MKTX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KNX 2) AET 3) MNK 4) MDLS 5) EMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TUP 2) IRBT 3) LKSD 4) CAT 5) BA
Charts:

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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:36 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +3.0% 2) Retail +1.6% 3) Banks +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TER, SNAP, SLP, CSTM, TSEM, TXN, MANH, UPS, SLAB, CRNX, CSGP, NAVI, VLRS, MOR, ACHC, DFS, CMG, WIX, IART, SWP, MLI, BKU, THC, BOKF, AN, GHDX, LAD, DFS, EW, CSGP, BKU, UPS, GWW, RHI, TRMK, UCTT, SC, SLAB, DIOD, AERI, OC, CSL, NTRS, SYNA, MLI, ACLS, MXL, ACHC and EVR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) LQD 2) FEYE 3) EW 4) TER 5) ADI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SNAP 2) CMG 3) TXN 4) HAS 5) EW
Charts:
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Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:46 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:12 PM
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.50 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 40.50 -1.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  67.42 -.07%.
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (ALXN)/2.34
  • (ANTM)/4.62
  • (T)/.89
  • (BA)/1.90
  • (BSX)/.38
  • (CAT)/3.11
  • (FLIR)/.54
  • (FCX)/-.05
  • (GD)/2.69
  • (HLT)/1.02
  • (KNX)/.57
  • (NSC)/2.79 
  • (NOC)/4.65
  • (OC)/1.16
  • (TROW)/1.88
  • (TUP)/1.02
  • (UPS)/1.93
  • (VFC)/.29
After the Close:
  • (CERN)/.64
  • (CUZ)/.76
  • (FFIV)/2.48
  • (FB)/1.86
  • (F)/.31
  • (LSTR)/1.54
  • (LVS)/.78
  • (ORLY)/4.67
  • (PYPL)/.83
  • (RJF)/1.82
  • (NOW)/.63
  • (TSLA)/-.40
  • (VAR)/1.13
  • (XLNX)/.92
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for July is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 50.6 in June.
  • Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for July is estimated to rise to 51.8 versus 51.5 in June.
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for June are estimated to rise to 659K versus 626K in May.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -4,443,150 barrels versus a -3,116,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,395,170 barrels versus a +3,565,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +382,420 barrels versus a +5,686,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.08% versus a -.3% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, House hearing on (STI)/(BBT) merger, Mueller's testimony to House on Russia and the $41B 5Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
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Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, China Trade Deal Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Financial/Industrial Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:28 PM
 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.65 -6.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.37 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.92 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.82 -5.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +1.9%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -21.21%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -10.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.88 -3.97%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 647.0 +.48%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.69 -4.80%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.75 -4.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.42 -2.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.11 -1.54%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.0 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.0 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 25.50 +6.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.48 -.40%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.05% +-2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 23.75 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.65 USD/Metric Tonne -1.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.90 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.50 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.8 +1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +80 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +24 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:42 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders -2.2% 2) Steel -1.0% 3) Gold & Silver -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ACAD, IIPR, ZION, CIR, WHR, CATS, IONS, IRBT, PHM, RUN, MGLN, SBLK, TUFN, PD, LW and ENPH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AKS 2) ACAD 3) AET 4) ADNT 5) KO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) VIVE 2) LCI 3) ZION 4) DVN 5) HL
Charts:
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