Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 31.25 -1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.25 +.08%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.01%.

• S&P 500 futures unch.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated at 1 versus -1 in Nov. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The $41B 5Y T-Note auction and the weekly UR retail sales reports could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Shortened:

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Global Growth Optimism, Technical Buying, Oil Gain, Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.7 +1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.93 +.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.40 -1.23%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.7 -4.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 -7
  

• Total Put/Call .79 +1.3%

• NYSE Arms .86 -34%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.02 -.67%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 547.0 +1.11%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.29 +1.81%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 167.25 +1.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 53.49 -.96%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 182.35 +.10%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.33 +.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 unch.

• TED Spread 37.5 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.26 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55%-1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .28 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 90.25 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.3 -2.7 basis points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.60 +8.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.4 +.8 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 -2.0 basis points
• 6.1% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 13.2% chance of cut at April 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -16 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -.9% 2) Homebuilders -.9% 3) Insurance -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HIIQ

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AFL 2) AMLP 3) NGL 4) GNW 5) DXCM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LYFT 2) ZYNE 3) RVP 4) MITO 5) ACB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.4% 2) Oil Service +3.2% 3) Computer Hardware +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ITCI, CBB, NLTX, APA, BBIO, IRTC, TXG, SRPT, FTSV, TGTX, HCAT, MTEM, DSSI, DTIL, VYGR, LGF/A, RAD, ARVN, PLAY, CLDR, NVST, ABMD, NTGR, PFGC, DOMO, MYOK, NGVT, XPER, TSLA, MNTA, SPAR, AMD, NEO and FDX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALB 2) HPE 3) IBB 4) COG 5) XHB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SRPT 2) PESI 3) APA 4) AMD 5) ITCI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -20.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 52.2% of Issues Advancing, 45.0% Declining
• 159 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 64.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.5%
• Vix 12.7 +1.3%
• Total Put/Call .70 -10.3%
• TRIN/Arms .81 -8.9%

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 53.25 -1.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 32.5 -2.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.24 -.04%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.09%.
• S&P 500 futures +.09%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (NEOG)/.32

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Nov. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +.5% gain in Oct.
• Durables Ex Transports for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in Oct.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Def Ex-Air for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.1% gain in Oct.
• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to -.13 versus -.71 in Oct.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Nov. is estimated to fall to 730K versus 733K in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Canada GDP report and the $40B 2Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.