Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• U.K. Warns of Further Crackdown If Britons Ignore Virus Advice.
• Mnuchin Sees Emergency Package on Track for Monday Passage.  
• Italy Bans Movement Inside Country as Another 651 People Die.  
• Critical Medical Supplies Are Stuck in China With No Planes to Ship Them.
• Democrats Block Senate Economic Stimulus Bill as Talks Falter.  
• U.S. Stumbles on Aid; Olympics Postponement Mulled: Virus Update. 
• Hong Kong’s Economy Is in ‘Deep Water,’ Finance Chief Says.
• It’s Not The First Time OPEC Has Pulled Up a Chair for Texas. 
• Dire Dollar Shortage Shows World Failed to Fix Key Crisis Flaw.  
• U.S. Stock Futures Hit Limit Down; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap. U.S. equity futures tumbled at the start of trading Monday after a surge in the global death toll from the coronavirus and a failure as yet by Congress to agree on an aid plan. Treasury yields retreated. S&P 500 futures dropped 5% and hit limit down after the index lost more than 4% on Friday. Australian equities tumbled more than 8% at one point, while stocks in Tokyo fluctuated at the open. The dollar climbed against major peers. New Zealand’s dollar fell with the country’s bond yields after its central bank joined other countries in saying it will start buying bonds to stimulate the economy. As investors attempt to assess the severity of the upcoming downturn, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the virus. Futures on the S&P 500 Index dropped 4.3% as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge dropped 4.3% on Friday. Topix index rose 0.2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index tumbled 5.7%. Kospi index declined 6.1%. Hang Seng Index futures lost 3.6% on Friday.
• Gulf Stocks Extend Drop Shrugging Off New Measures: Inside EM.  
• U.S. Aid Plan, N.Z. Turns to QE, China Set to Rebound: Eco Day.
• Oil Extends Declines as Prospects for OPEC-Texas Truce Fade.
• Bruised Hedge Funds Ask Clients for Fresh Cash to Buy the Dip.
• Sunday Strategist: The Sharing Economy May Never Be the Same.  
• Real Estate Billionaire Barrack Says Commercial Mortgages on Brink of Collapse.  
• Biden Says ‘No Need’ to Postpone November Vote Over Virus.  
• Bruised Hedge Funds Ask Clients for Fresh Cash to Buy the Dip.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Worst of the Selloff Isn’t Here Yet, Banks and Investors Warn.
• Why It’s So Difficult to Stop the Spread.
• How South Korea Solved Its Acute Hospital-Bed Shortage. 
• Marriott to Furlough Thousands of Corporate Jobs.
• Jails Release Prisoners, Fearing Coronavirus Outbreak.
• The CDC’s Restrictive Testing Guidelines Hid the Epidemic.
• Houses of Worship Rush to Go Online.
• Slowdown Tests the Mettle of China’s Shadow Banks.
• Early Convention Puts Pressure on Democrats.
• Virus and Oil-Price Plunge Buries Shale and Occidental’s Big Bet. 
• How Long Will the Coronavirus Lockdowns Go On?
• Marines Plan to Retool to Meet China Threat.

Fox News:

• #PresidentCuomo trends as Dem NY gov overshadows Biden, Sanders during virus outbreak.
• NEWT GINGRICH: Here’s how US can restore its economic health.
• Here’s No. 1 disinfectant to keep your car clean amid coronavirus.
• Aid talks at standstill as McConnell, Dems argue over sticking points in stalled spending bill.

CNBC:    

• NYSE readies itself for first ever all-electronic trading day.
• These charts show how fast coronavirus cases are spreading — and what it takes to flatten the curve.
• Breaking down this sell-off, among the most extreme Wall Street has ever seen
• Coronavirus live updates: Fed’s Bullard calls shutdown ‘massive investment in public health’
• Airlines tell Congress they need $29 billion of coronavirus aid in grants to avoid furloughs 
• Read the memo Jeff Bezos sent to Amazon employees about coronavirus safety at warehouses.
• Goldman makes bold call to upgrade Boeing(BA), saying it has enough cash.
• Trump activates National Guard in California, New York and Washington state: ‘This is a war’.
• Coronavirus stimulus bill fails in key Senate procedural vote.

Zero Hedge:        

• Rand Paul Tests Positive For COVID-19, Ohio, Louisiana & Delaware Issue 'Stay At Home' Orders: Live Updates.
• "Critical Medical Supply Shortage": The Moment US Woke Up To Disaster Of Always Outsourcing To China.
• TARP Failure Monday? Futures Crash As Coronavirus Bill Fails Key Procedural Vote.
• "Holy Shit, This Is Not The Flu": Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19... Even In Young Patients.
• "Widespread Panic" Hits Commercial Property Markets: Deals Implode, Renters Disappear, Businesses Shut Down.
• "The Speed Of Business Erosion Is Unprecedented": Goldman Sees S&P Dropping To 2,000, Cuts EPS By 33%. 
• "No One Was Ready" – Europe's Desperate Doctors Use Trash Bags As Hazmat Suits.
• Equity Hedge Funds Suffer Their Worst Month Ever.
• Harvey Weinstein Tests Positive For COVID-19.
• Merkel In Quarantine After Contact With Infected Doctor: Italy Bans All Movement Inside The Country.  
• Mnuchin: Fed To Make $4 Trillion In Business Loans, Send $3,000 Checks To Family Of Four. 
• One Third Of All Coronavirus Cases Show No Symptoms, Classified China Data Reveals.
• Fed's Bullard Warns Unemployment May Soar To 30%, GDP Crash 50% In Q2.
• "Please Take This Seriously... It's Brutal" – COVID-19 Survivors Speak Out.
• Italian Virologist Says Concerns Over "Racism" Crippled Italy's Coronavirus Response.
• Turkey Arrests 64 For 'Provocative' Coronavirus-Related Social Media Posts.
• COVID-19 Shatters The Facade Of European 'Union'.
• Half Of Americans Don't Trust Mainstream Media's COVID-19 Coverage.
• A 'Made-In-China' Pandemic.
• Why Is CrowdStrike Confused On 11 Key Details About The DNC 'Hack'?
• Biden Plans 'Fireside Corona Chats' To Snipe At Trump Virus Response.

Business Insider:

• The coronavirus crisis is likely going to last for months. Here are 5 key business stories to watch.
• Jeff Bezos is asking laid-off restaurant and bar workers to come work for Amazon amid the coronavirus crisis.
• How the sports-betting industry is responding to the coronavirus pandemic that has halted most major sporting events.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -7.5% to -5.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 197.5 +3.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 70.0 +.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.91 -.50%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -6.67%.
• S&P 500 futures -4.8%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -4.5%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (REV)/-1.09

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Consumer Confidence report and the (EVBG) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg. 
• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on coronavirus fears, oil weakness, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, yen strength, global recession worries and forced selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Fed Going All In to Save Economy. Here’s What Could Come Next.

• Trump Says Virus Plan With $2 Trillion Impact ‘Very Close’.

• Italy Shutters Output; Congress Works on Aid Plan: Virus Update.

• ‘Tipping Point’ at New York Area Hospitals as Virus Cases Mount.

• Johnson Warns That National Health Service Could Be Overwhelmed.

• China Orders Local Staff to Leave U.S. News Outlets in Beijing.  

• The Coronavirus Might Kill Globalization: Bloomberg New Economy.

• Merkel Government Assembling Package to Counter Virus Impact.

• These Are the European Stocks Most Impacted by the Coronavirus.

• Australia to Unleash A$66 Billion in Second Stimulus Package.

• U.S. Shows Willingness to Remove Tariffs on Medical Supplies.

• After Central Bank Drama Comes Europe Data Traders Are Dreading.  

• Oil Demand Catastrophe Is Making the Price War a Sideshow.

• Covid-19 Is Becoming the Disease That Divides America.

• ‘Sell-Everything’ Strategy Is Causing Massive Credit Turmoil.  

• U.S. Junk Bonds Enter Distress, Spreads Top 1,000 Basis Points.

• WWII-Like Mobilization Thrusts Private Sector Into Virus Fight.

• Best Buy(BBY) Withdraws Fiscal 2021 Guidance, Suspends Buybacks.  

• Google(GOOG) Coronavirus Website Launches a Week After Trump Tout.  

• The Virus Hits, the World Shakes, Governments Act: Weekend Reads.

Wall Street Journal: 

• For Small Businesses, It’s a Virus Chain Reaction.

• Downturn Could Cost 5 Million Jobs.

• China’s Coronavirus Diplomacy.

• What Victory Looks Like in the Coronavirus War.

• Lobbyists Vie For Clients’ Share of Stimulus Bill.

• Do More to Avert a Liquidity Crisis.

• Obama’s Bad Stimulus Example.

• The History of Pfizer and Penicillin, and Lessons for Coronavirus.

• Virus Drains Life Out of Public Spaces.

• Marriott to Furlough Thousands of Corporate Jobs.

• U.S. Considers Special Enrollment Period for Affordable Care Act.

• Lobbyists Pile On to Get Wins for Clients Into Stimulus Bill.

• FEMA Faces Steep Challenge as Lead Agency in Coronavirus Fight.

• Emergency Rooms Strain to Keep Doctors on the Job.

CNBC:

• Dow tumbles 900 points to end Wall Street’s worst week since 2008.

• Congress is working on a $1 trillion rescue package, but it might not be enough for US businesses.

• Coronavirus live updates: US hospitals seek $100 billion in aid, Spain death toll tops 1,300.

• Stocks can return to records early next year if the US can curb coronavirus spread, says JPMorgan.

• Hospitals set up coronavirus tents, seek emergency credit and US aid as they face onslaught.

• ‘It’s very isolating’: Students struggle to adapt as colleges move to remote learning indefinitely.

• UK PM Boris Johnson announces nationwide lockdown measures, telling cafes, pubs and restaurants to close.  

• Op-Ed: Investor who made it through ’87 crash gives optimistic case for the stock market right now.

• WHO officials say at least 20 coronavirus vaccines are in development in global race for cure.

• These fitness companies are offering free online workouts during coronavirus quarantine.

• Best Buy(BBY) shifts stores to curbside pickup only as demand surges for home office equipment.

• Amazon(AMZN) doubles overtime pay for warehouse workers as demand rises due to coronavirus.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (HD), (MDLZ), (BX), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (FB), (PEP), (CLX), (KMB), (NVO), (TJX), (JNJ) and (CVX).

MarketWatch.com:

• Here’s a breakdown of the Fed’s rescue programs to keep credit flowing during the pandemic.

• Amazon is hiring 100,000 workers, 7-Eleven will hire up to 20,000 — here are the sectors adding jobs amid coronavirus.

Fox News:   

• Trump defends early action in virus crisis, says China being 'secretive'.

• Here's a way to show appreciation for health care workers on virus' front lines.

• Recovered Florida coronavirus patient has advice for young people.

• Millions comply with lockdowns, stay-at-home policies as coronavirus cases, deaths mount.

Zero Hedge:         

• Italy Goes Full "Wuhan", Orders Most Restrictive Lockdown Yet, As Global Case Total Passes 300k: Live Updates.

• China 'Inexcusably' Hid Information About Coronavirus And Should Admit Their Wrongdoing.

• "10% Of GDP": US Coronavirus Stimulus Package To Total $2 Trillion.

• In Sweeping Power Grab, DOJ Seeks Ability To Detain People Indefinitely Without Trial.

• The Debt Brake Finally Breaks: "Austere" Germany To Issue €356BN In New Debt, Amounting To 10% Of GDP.

• Use Of Fed Liquidity Swap Line Surges.

• China Orders Citizens To Stop Working At US News Outlets In Beijing.

• "Unprecedented" Global Policy Easing Has Failed To Curtail Credit Carnage.

• FDA Authorizes First 45-Minute 'Rapid Point-Of-Care' Test.

• National Guard Deploys In Baltimore As City Enforces Restrictive Curfew: Live Updates.

• Watch: "Youths" Looting, Fighting At Supermarkets In London & Paris.

• Confirmed: Fed Bailed Out Hedge Funds Facing Basis Trade Disaster.

• 'Vague' Legislation Gives British Police Powers To Detain "Suspected COVID-19 Carriers"

• Beijing's Claim Of No New Infections Contradicts Reality On The Ground.

• China Auto Sales Continue Collapse, Plunging 50% And 44% In First And Second Week Of March, Respectively.

• Debunking Nature Magazine's "COVID-19 Definitely Didn't Come From A Lab" China Propaganda.

• "Unparalleled Challenge" - Inside America's First Locked-Down Major City, "Everything's Out Of Our Control".

• Ronin Capital Blows Up, Unable To Meet CME Capital Requirements After VIX Trade Goes Wrong.

• A Revolving Panic: Here Are The Companies That Have Fully Drawn Down Credit Lines This Week.

• Congressman Demands Beijing Pay Reparations For Unleashing The Coronavirus On The US.

• The Economics Of Cruise Ships (& Why They Don't Deserve A Bailout).

• How Propaganda Gets Transmitted From China To Leftist Influencers.

• Tucker Targets Lindsey Graham - Who Wants Trump To Boost Visas To Rich Chinese Amid Corona Crisis.

• Boeing(BA) Suspends Buybacks And Dividends; CEO Will Work For Free Until End Of The Year.

• "I Lost 100%" Of My Business – Seattle Transforms Into 'Ghost Town' Amid Covid-19 Crisis.

• Stocks Suffer Worst Week Since Lehman Despite Biggest Fed Bailout Ever.

Business Insider:  

• 10 countries are now tracking phone data as the coronavirus pandemic heralds a massive increase in surveillance.

• GM will make ventilators as the coronavirus pandemic rages and hospitals face unprecedented stress.

• The top 9 shows on Netflix and other streaming services this week.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.