Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 68.1% of Issues Advancing, 29.3% Declining
• 55 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 23.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0%
• Vix 30.9 -6.1%
• Total Put/Call .80 -5.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.11 +35.4%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• A Painful Covid-19 Reminder From Beijing.  

• China’s $3.5 Trillion Wealth Product Market Shows First Losses.

• There’s a Flood of Japanese Money Rushing Into Dollar Assets.

• Depressed U.K. Consumer Confidence Picks Up in June.

• LatAm Infections Surge; Beijing Cancels Flights: Virus Update.  

• Asian Stocks Edge Higher; Dollar Holds Advance: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks traded mixed early Friday trading after a muted session on Wall Street saw shares end little changed. The dollar held its overnight gain. Early gains in Japan gave way to a modest decline, with volumes down about a third. South Korean shares also retreated, while Australia saw gains. S&P 500 futures ticked up after a volatile U.S. session that saw weekly jobless claims stay above one million, with volume light ahead of Friday’s option expiry. Meanwhile, Florida’s new coronavirus cases rose faster than the past week’s average and Texas hospitalizations climbed for a record seventh straight day. Crude oil nudged higher. Futures on the S&P 500 advanced 0.2% as of 9:31 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge rose 0.1% on Thursday. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi index slid 0.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.4%.

• Oil Set to Resume Weekly Gains With Demand Recovery on Track.  

• Mnuchin Dollar Fear, China to Honor, Fiscal Cold Turkey: Eco Day.

• We Will Be Living With the Coronavirus Pandemic Well Into 2021.

• GOP Senator to Advance Bill Designating Juneteenth a Federal Holiday.  

• Dalio’s Bridgewater Warns of Possible ‘Lost Decade’ for Stocks.  

• NYC Unemployment Reached 18.3% in May, Up From 4.1% Year Earlier.

• Electronic Arts Sees Social Features as the Future of Gaming.

Wall Street Journal:

• Carnival Posts Record Quarterly Loss.

• Black Lives Matter’s Years of Pressure Paved Way for Sudden Police Overhaul.

• U.S. Unemployment Claims Edge Lower but Remain Historically High.

• Eddie the Repo Man Has Time on His Hands: What Happens When Your Debt Is Suspended.

• Trump Talks Juneteenth, John Bolton, Economy in Interview.

• Indians Rage at China After Bloody Border Clash.

• Princeton, Northwestern Latest to Not Require SAT, ACT.

Fox News:

• Trump calls for 'new justices' on Supreme Court, as conservatives rage at Roberts after DACA decision.

• 'Fed up' police rally behind their own in face of post-George Floyd scrutiny.

CNBC.com:

• The flight to the suburbs is real and growing, as coronavirus changes the way people live.

• Coronavirus antibodies may last only two to three months after infection, study suggests.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Smith & Wesson, Hertz, Marathon Petroleum and more.

• Ex-Facebook VP thinks governments will go after Big Tech and break them up within a decade.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Here are the best and worst stocks during the first 100 days of the coronavirus pandemic.

• Will quadruple witching mark the start of a rocky stretch for U.S. stocks? It may already have.

• Here’s what Americans splurged on during the 100 days of the coronavirus pandemic.

Zero Hedge:    

• Fed's Balance Sheet Posts Biggest Weekly Drop In 11 Years.

• China's Central Bank Vows To Expand Total Credit By 30% Of GDP In 2020.

• Twitter, YouTube Permit Communist Party Misinformation While Aggressively Censoring Conservatives.

• The Cause Of Tension Between China And India.

• California Reports Another Record Jump In New COVID-19 Cases: Live Updates.

• Young Americans Trust Colleges More Than Police, Military, & Churches; Survey Finds.

• Labor Recovery Stalls, Benefits Not Paid, Massive Unemployment Lines In Kentucky.

• The Fed's Casino Is In Flames, But Please Continue Gambling.

• Dollar & Bonds Bid As Stocks See One Of Quietest Days Of The Year.

The Epoch Times:

• US Reserves Option to Completely Decouple From China, Trump Says.

• Beijing Building Sweeping DNA Database in Violation of Human Rights: Australian Think Tank.

• Programming Alert: New Documentary Exposes How the CCP Is Manipulating America.

• US Senators Unveil Bill to Curb Foreign Espionage, Influence on Campuses.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 49.25 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.30 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.15%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (KMX)/.14

• (JBL)/.43

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Current Account Deficit for 1Q is estimated at -$102.9B versus -$109.8B in 4Q.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Quarles speaking and the Russia rate decision could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Geopolitical Tensions, Coronavirus 2nd Wave Worries, Increasing Biden Presidency Odds, Homebuilding/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 33.2 -.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.14 -.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.96 +1.11%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 70.2 +3.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -6.0 points

• Total Put/Call .82 +7.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.20 -30.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +3.84%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 922.14 +1.23%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.48 +3.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 178.75 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 196.45 -4.45%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.15 -.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.0 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 16.0 +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -1.75 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  114.0 unch.
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 +1.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.31 -.66%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .15% unch.

• Yield Curve 51.75 -1.75 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.88 USD/Metric Tonne +.84%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 126.70 -13.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -192.0 +4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.9 -1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.26 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +25 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -2.2% 2) Airlines -1.7% 3) Steel -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IRM, ANET, GRPN, CXW, BV, NGM, KR, FMCI, BIIB, SONO and CRY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KR 2) MET 3) BIIB 4) KMX 5) X

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BIIB 2) BGG 3) CCL 4) TWTR  5) PFG

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +1.5% 2) Alt Energy +1.4% 3) Software +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ENPH, VERI, ABM, IBTX, NLTX, EDIT, WEX, CLDR, SCHN, VMD, PRVB, GPRE, NKLA, SWBI and ACTT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PTEN 2) RSX 3) KNX 4) EDIT 5) KR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SELB 2) LEE 3) PYPL 4) CHD 5) KKR

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -21.7% Below 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 41.8% of Issues Advancing, 55.4% Declining
• 33 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 24.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.7%
• Vix 32.9 -1.5%
• Total Put/Call .80 +5.3%
• TRIN/Arms .86 -50.3%