Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.7% Below 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 27.9% of Issues Advancing, 69.1% Declining
• 58 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 38.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.6%
• Vix 25.3 +2.3%
• Total Put/Call .72 -5.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.33 -21.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75%  to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 43.75 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.42 +.10%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.82%.

• S&P 500 futures +.56%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.26%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.20
• (AXL)/-2.03
• (BAH)/.86
• (CAT)/.72
• (CBOE)/1.24
• (CBRE)/.41
• (CHTR)/2.66
• (CVX)/-.89
• (CHD)/.62
• (CL)/.69
• (XOM)/-.60
• (FCAU)/-.87
• (GT)/-2.03
• (IDXX)/1.17
• (ITW)/.71
• (ITT)/.37
• (JCI)/.48
• (LYB)/.69
• (MRK)/1.05
• (NWL)/.18
• (PSX)/-.84
• (SNA)/1.83
• (UAA)/-.40
• (VFC)/-.68
• (WY)/.01
  

After the Close:

• (BCC)/.46

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for June is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -4.2% decline in May.
• Personal Spending for June is estimated to rise +5.2% versus a +8.2% gain in May.
• The PCE Core Deflator MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• The Employment Cost Index for 2Q is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in 1Q.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for July is estimated to rise to 44.5 versus 36.6 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Spain GDP report  could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Mostly Lower into Afternoon on Global Recession Fears, Earnings Outlooks, Oil Decline, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.4 +5.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.61 +.28%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.2 +2.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.0 +3.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 146 .0 +36.0 points

• Total Put/Call .76 +4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.31 +4.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.62 +1.04%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 854.83 +.16%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.12 +5.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.0 -.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  73.87 -1.03%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 192.73 +2.1%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.84 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 17.75 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.75 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  90.75 -1.25 basis points
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.0 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.32 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 44.25 +.5 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.49 USD/Metric Tonne -1.19%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 247.1 +17.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 128.80 -19.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.1 +1.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.52 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -134 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -122 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +37 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -4.1% 2) Banks -2.7% 3) Road & Rail -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CERN, CFFA, NOW, SMG, SNDR, URI, CAR, BKR, NBL, RJF, MMP, INSG, YUM, BC, AGYS, WAFD, KHC, ITGR, MNRO, FEYE, DNKN, CXO, XOM, EPD, TUP, NGVT, MTZ, SIGI, LB, LLY, BAX, PPC, COP, PLCE, VLO, PRDO, RVMD, WNC, BHE, AOS, SIX, TENB, DAN, SRI, STBA, SBH, PI, TSE and KRA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JWN 2) EWW 3) KODK 4) FITB 5) OSTK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) QEP 2) COP 3) STBA 4) BYND  5) CHRW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +1.4% 2) Semis +1.4% 3) Biotech +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OSTK, HOME, UCTT, APA, MTSI, BLKB, UPS, SANM, QCOM, AVTR, KODK, COOP, GNRC, QRVO, FCN, INOV, HOLX, FRG, PS, ELAN, ORLY and PYPL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) QCOM 2) KODK 3) SH 4) PRPL 5) QRVO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UPS 2) QCOM 3) HOLX 4) TDOC 5) APA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 23.1% of Issues Advancing, 74.3% Declining
• 39 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 39.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.2%
• Vix 26.7 +11.0%
• Total Put/Call .72 -1.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 -8.8%