Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 18.7% of Issues Advancing, 78.9% Declining
• 44 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 48.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index -140.0 -18.0 points
• Vix 33.2 -1.1%
• Total Put/Call .94 -2.1%
• TRIN/Arms .91 +16.7%

 

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.5 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 36.0 +2.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.71 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index -198.0 -76.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 37.92 -2.8%
• FTSE 100 futures -.4%.

• S&P 500 futures -.3%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Aug. is estimated to fall to 1350K versus 1763K in July.
• The Unemployment Rate for Aug. is estimated to fall to 9.8% versus 10.2% in July.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Aug. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Canadian Unemployment Rate report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Global Recession Fears, US Election Uncertainty, Profit-Taking, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 32.5 +22.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index -79.0 -460.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.23 -.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.68 +12.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 -28.0 points

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +37.0%

• NYSE Arms .64 -21.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.02 +4.66%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 760.08 +.64%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.44 +5.16%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 144.25 -1.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  57.04 -.87%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.08 +5.53%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.62 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 15.0 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  89.0 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.62 -.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.

• Yield Curve 52.5 -2.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.52 USD/Metric Tonne -1.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 193.30 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 100.50 -6.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.4 +3.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -7.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -390 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -171 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -67 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/biotech/medical/consumer staple sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -4.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -7.3% 2) Internet -5.8% 3) Alt Energy -5.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TRMB, FEAC, PEN, BSTZ, TWLO, CRM, AAPL, CPB, ADSK, APPN, FSLR, ADBE, OKTA, PANW, CUE, SQ, MDB, ALB, SPAQ, MITK, CYRX, FVAC, GRAF, PYPL, GMS, UCTT, AMBA, TDOC, NET, DDOG, COUP, RGR, TSLA, W, AMD, SWKS, VIAV, AYX, ETSY, QRVO, CHWY, BILL, BL, FTNT, WORK, NVDA, IPHI, LGIH, EXPI, JNPR, CHGG, PTON, MTSI, NLS, CALX, OTRK, CRWD, RUN, PDCO, APPS, CC, ZS, SWBI, PRTS, PLUG, SHLL, CLDR, GRWG, ZM, HOME, ENPH, LPSN, IIVI, DT, ACMR, NTLA, LITE, DOCU, SPWH, MDLA, RKT, SMAR, CONN, CIEN,  PD and ZUO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLF 2) VGK 3) CIEN 4) XLB 5) XRT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZM 2) ALV 3) TWTR 4) FAST  5) ZUO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -.1% 2) Banks -.2% 3) Insurance -.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FLGT, STRO, WLL, LIND, FIVE, CCL and DLTH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CIEN 2) FIVE 3) SABR 4) ZUO 5) AMBA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FIVE 2) FLGT 3) PVH 4) NVAX 5) FE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

 

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.2% Above 100-Day Average
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 34.1% of Issues Advancing, 62.8% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 52.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 279.0 -101.0 points
• Vix 27.3 +2.6%
• Total Put/Call .55 -24.7%
• TRIN/Arms .53 -34.6%