Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.7% 2) Energy +3.5% 3) Homebuilding +3.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ARWR, INO, AMCX, AXGN, GOGO, VECO, MRSN, APPS, DKNG, NFE, SCS, OXY, BYND, UCTT, MLHR, FDX, EXEL, HSC, AVTR, NKLA, SGMS, L and SWTX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) A 2) XPO 3) CLNY 4) TPR 5) IMMU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ARWR 2) DKNG 3) TPR 4) KOPN 5) OSTK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 70.2% of Issues Advancing, 26.5% Declining
• 59 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 49.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 309.0 -78.0 points
• Vix 26.5 +3.6%
• Total Put/Call .75 +7.1%
• TRIN/Arms .91 -40.9%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 36.25 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.73 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 410.0 +22.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.6 +.58%
• FTSE 100 futures -.70%.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BRC)/.52

After the Close:

• (MLHR)/.30

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.2% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.9% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Aug. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.5% gain in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -1.1% decline in June.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Sept. is estimated at 78.0 versus 78.0 in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,453,2000 barrels versus a +2,033,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,059,400 barrels versus a -2,954,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -227,700 barrels versus a -1,675,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +1.46% versus a -4.9% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 0.0-.25%.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, UK inflation data report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Wells Fargo Consumer Conference, Morgan Stanley Autos/Industrials Conference and the (NTAP) analyst day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Biotech/REIT Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.4 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 386.0 +79.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.52 -.34%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.6 -2.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 +8.0 points

• Total Put/Call .68 -17.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +65.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.80 -1.45%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 821.28 +.65%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.37 -3.19%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 151.25 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  57.53 -1.11%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.40 -2.81%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.99 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 unch.

• TED Spread 15.25 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 +2.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  93.25 +2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.76 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% unch.

• Yield Curve 53.25 -.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.88 USD/Metric Tonne -2.82%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 178.0 -3.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 83.2 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.6 +2.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks -1.3% 2) Homebuilding -1.1% 3) I-Banks -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CLX, ZUMZ, CVM, BK, TPR, CBRL, GOSS, UNFI, RNG, DPHC, C, SLQT, TRHC, LIND, WLL,  LEN, ATGE, NKLA, MRSN, FIZZ, GTHX, FRTA, OSTK, FRTA, MDLA, XENT, CUK, CCL, ORA and IMXI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IEF 2) C 3) LEN 4) QRVO 5) AEO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKLA 2) OBNK 3) RNST 4) PROG  5) XOM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.9% 2) Oil Service +1.6% 3) Software +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IPOB, SGMS, APPS, NLS, RVNC, ATNX, AVRO, MCFT, ZG, PTON, HCAC and NVCR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MRNS 2) NEE 3) PVH 4) VTR 5) PK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MRNS 2) NVAX 3) FCAU 4) PLT 5) SAH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume