Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,312.92 -.96%

 




















 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.  

Indices

• DJIA 27,630.08 -.24%

• NASDAQ 10,746.90 -1.11%

• Russell 2000 1,531.08 +2.1%

• S&P 500 High Beta 43.60 +1.76%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 174.02 +3.3%

• Wilshire 5000 33,813.67 -.41%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,097.17 -1.47%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,180.84 +.36%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 649.17 -2.0%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,302.96 -.36%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,998.36 +.78%

• Transports 11,437.30 +1.4%

• Utilities 798.12 -.26%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 47.8 -3.7%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.63 +1.43%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,231.18 +.53%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 900.46 +.36%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 419,668 -.62%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 125 +2

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -42.99 +5.43%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 449,366 -8.5%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,046,660 -.85%

• Total Put/Call .94 -5.0%

• OEX Put/Call 1.67 +2.4%

• ISE Sentiment 112.0 +12.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.27 +90.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 179.0 +97.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 27.4 +.97%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.37 +4.45%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.71 -1.58%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.19 -.89%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,735.14 -1.5%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.416 Trillion -1.2%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.764 Million

• AAII % Bulls 32.0 +35.1%

• AAII % Bears 40.4 -16.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 151.26 +3.3%

• Crude Oil 40.88 +9.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 122.91 +11.6%

• Natural Gas 2.05 -9.6%

• Heating Oil 115.57 +5.95%

• Gold 1,952.40 +.66%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 187.45 +.93%

• Copper 310.35 +2.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 296.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.6%

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.63 USD/Metric Tonne -3.96%

• Lumber 578.60 -9.65%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 896.31 +3.3%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +32.0% +1.2 percentage points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.3% +.7 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 100.0% unch.

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -5.11 -.79%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 254.37 +10.6%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 155.36 +.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 172.5 -15.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.7 -20.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.3 +7.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 11/5

• US Dollar Index 92.84 -.47%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,646.0 +.82%

• Bitcoin/USD 10,851.35 +5.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.32 -1.51%

• Yield Curve 54.5 +.75 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield .69% +2.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.025 Trillion +.77%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.97 -.96%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 306.78 +1.95%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 144.0 -3.5 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.5 -.09%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 203.68 -.29%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.20 -3.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.46 -3.7%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 103.54 +.39%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.11 +.13%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.67% unch.

• TED Spread 14.5 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +2.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.79 +1.75%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 479.0 +3.88%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.67 -5.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 174.21 +1.40%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 95.5 +5.75 basis points
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 67.0 +.18%

• M1 Money Supply $5.403 Trillion -.21%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 983.50 -2.6%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 912,000 -6.3%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 8.6% -60.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.87% +1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 757.20 -2.51%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 47.7 -.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales -.6% -50.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.18/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,294.0 +2.1%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 985.44 +3.79%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 96.42 -5.68%

• Rail Freight Carloads 260,643 -9.29%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -1.3%

Leading Sectors

• Steel +8.4%

• Paper +8.0%

• Alt Energy +6.5%

• Biotech +5.0%

• Oil Service +3.7%

Lagging Sectors

• Telecom -1.5% 

• Internet -2.5%

• Education -2.7%

• Tobacco -3.2%

• Gaming -4.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)

• BE, STRO, INO, ARCH, BBIO, KODK, LOB, MAXR, W, PSNL, PRTS, DPHC, AXNX, SWTX, MYOK, OSUR, BEAT, COOP, DKNG, BG, TPTX, FREQ, RVMD and CASH
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (31)

• KHC, VAC, DEI, BKNG, ISRG, DOC, MTOR, PRLB, AAPL, RVLV, FSLR, CONE, LGIH, ADBE, JBHT, DTE, ODFL, WIFI, KTB, VRM, SMTC, PINC, YELP, LRN, CHWY, CNMD, FRTA, CCL, CMD, RDFN and CUK
  

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

 

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Biden Tax Hike Proposals, China Tensions, Diminished US Stimulus Hopes, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.6 +4.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 156.0 -78.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.33 -.18%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.18 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.3 +8.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 +1.0 points

• Total Put/Call .91 -5.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.44 +73.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.95 +2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 807.66 -.28%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.59 -1.67%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 144.5 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  57.59 -.53%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 174.30 +3.18%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.11 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 unch.

• TED Spread 14.5 -2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  95.25 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.0 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.65 -.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 54.5 +.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.63 USD/Metric Tonne -.31%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 172.5 +2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.70 -5.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.3 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -230 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.0% 2) Alt Energy +1.9% 3) Agriculture +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BE, PLAY, NKTX, STRO, ARCH, LOB, BBIO, PRTS, DPHC, OSUR, MAXR and CRY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BGFV 2) SAVA 3) STWD 4) STWD 5) WRK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PLAY 2) SPWR 3) GNBT 4) LLY 5) IIVI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 45.8% of Issues Advancing, 50.8% Declining
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 49.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 248.0 +13.0 points
• Vix 26.3 -.4%
• Total Put/Call .77 -19.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.01 +22.9%

 

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 +2.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.84 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 218.0 -16.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.95 +.42%
• FTSE 100 futures +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Current Account Deficit for  2Q is estimated at -$160.0B versus -$104.2B in 1Q.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for August is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +1.4% gain in July.
• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Sept. is estimated to rise to 75.0 versus 74.1 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Wholesale Price report and the (MOS) analyst presentation could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Diminished Central Bank Stimulus Hopes, China Tensions, Technical Selling, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.4 +5.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 177.0 -150.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.47 -.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.18 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.1 +7.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -32.0 points

• Total Put/Call .88 +11.4%

• NYSE Arms .73 +5.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.3 +2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 811.52 +.26%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.45 +1.96%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 151.25 n/a
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  57.84 +1.61%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.15 +2.1%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.07 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 16.75 +3.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  94.0 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.79 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 540 +.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.78 USD/Metric Tonne +1.73%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 170.1 -7.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 75.2 -4.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.6 +2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -94 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long