Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 36.5% of Issues Advancing, 60.6% Declining
• 2 New 52-Week Highs, 67 New Lows
• 35.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index -11.0 -38.0 points
• Vix 28.5 -.31%
• Total Put/Call 1.07 +20.2%
• TRIN/Arms .49 -55.3%

 

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.5 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.25 +1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.22 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 23.0 -3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.5 +.08%
• FTSE 100 futures -.94%.

• S&P 500 futures -.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.45%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ACN)/1.73
• (BB)/.02
• (KMX)/1.07
• (DRI)/.05
• (FDS)/2.53
• (JBL)/.67
• (RAD)/.14
  

After the Close:

• (AIR)/-.05
• (COST)/2.80
• (JEF)/.34
• (SCHL)/-1.74
• (MTN)/-3.53
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 840K versus 860K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 12300K versus 12628K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Aug. is estimated to fall to 890K versus 901K in July.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Sept. is estimated at 14.0 versus 14.0 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kaplan speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Germany IFO Guidance, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, $50B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (MIK) investor day and the (BAM) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

 

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Global Coronavirus Worries, Diminished US Stimulus Hopes, US Election Uncertainties/Biden Tax-Hike Proposals, Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.3 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 121.0 -20.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.57 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.97 +2.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.5 +3.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +28.0 points

• Total Put/Call .78 -10.3%

• NYSE Arms .99 -13.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.44 +7.45%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 855.09 +1.07%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.76 -1.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.06 -2.71%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 244.78 +5.31%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.29 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 13.25 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  95.0 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.5 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.31 -.82%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 53.5 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.90 USD/Metric Tonne -3.13%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 164.2 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.30 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.7 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.62 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -156 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -134 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -4.6% 2) Oil Service -2.8% 3) Homebuilding -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FEAC, EXEL, ARVN, FCX, WLL, PPD, HCAC, SPR, NGM, CNK, PDCO, CWH, SBE, MBUU, OSTK, SPAQ, NSA, KBH, PLT, TSLA, VSTO, ACEL, WKHS, KNL, DPHC, VIRT, SCS, RAPT, ALB, SFIX, ZGNX and NKLA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NKE 2) SFIX 3) FEYE 4) MYL 5) GNW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ACB 2) ALB 3) DISCA 4) GOOG  5) COG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

 

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Restaurants +.9% 2) Social Media +.7% 3) Pharma +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HTH, NKE, TWTR, WDC, APOG, ZM, ODT, LGND and ZI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FNF 2) KMX 3) NAV 4) NKE 5) VIRT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CCL 2) MR 3) EBAY 4) AEP 5) ALV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.4% Below 100-Day Average
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 39.3% of Issues Advancing, 58.0% Declining
• 27 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 41.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 175.0 +34.0 points
• Vix 26.5 -1.5%
• Total Put/Call .77 -11.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.18 +3.5%