Saturday, March 27, 2021

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:         
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (WBT) and (HRB).
MarketWatch.com:      
Newsmax:  
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

Friday, March 26, 2021

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 3,925.12 +.47%*


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices
  • DJIA 32,778.70 +.46%
  • NASDAQ 12,198.15 -1.5%
  • Russell 2000 2,178.70 -3.6%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 68.55 -1.3%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 305.11 -3.5%
  • Wilshire 5000 41,112.87 -.16%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,391.63 -.02%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,485.35 +.42%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 699.77 +2.6%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,384.81 -1.3%
  • NYSE Technology 3,660.24 -1.4%
  • Transports 14,451.53 +2.1%
  • Utilities 869.19 +2.2%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 70.15 -.18%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 52.14 -2.59%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,357.36 -.92%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 937.04 -.24%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 459,632 +1.8%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -108 -465
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -41.22 +2.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 525,442 -2.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,523,179 +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -1.2%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.76 +2.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 90.0 -29.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 2.11 +3.5
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,757.0 -106.0 points
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.0 -10.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.21 +5.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.8 +.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.1 +6.7%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,386.97 -4.8%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.448 Trillion +1.4%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +42.980 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 50.9 +4.1%
  • AAII % Bears 20.6 -12.7%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 188.09 -.82%
  • Crude Oil 61.21 -.63%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 197.9 +1.9%
  • Natural Gas 2.56 +.31%
  • Heating Oil 181.61 -.66%
  • Gold 1,730.30 -.67%
  • Silver 25.02 -4.6%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 236.58 +.5
  • Copper 406.05 -.93%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 438.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 154.50 USD/Metric Tonne +3.9%
  • Lumber 954.50 +7.4%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,105.96 -1.7%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 318.0 USD/Short Ton -.63%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.7% -1.2 percentage points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +26.2% +.6 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +4.1 +1,350.0%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 118.5 -35.5%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 180.66 +.18%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.4 -16.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 165.20 +75.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.10 -3.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 97.8% chance of no change, 2.2% chance of rate hike on 4/28
  • US Dollar Index 92.73 +.99%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,699.99 -.67%
  • Bitcoin/USD 53,803 -8.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.69 -.31%
  • Yield Curve 152.0 -5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.66% -6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.680 Trillion +.34%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.38 +8.8%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 228.82 -5.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.77 +15.8%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 220.77 +14.5%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.78 +13.0%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.90 +11.4%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 112.20 +14.0%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.62 +.1%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37% +6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.75 -2.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.86 +9.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 394.0 +8.3%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 60.80 +7.4%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 180.90 -.61%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 75.75 -4.25 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 73.25 -1.75 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $1.841 Trillion unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,133.60 +1.6%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 736,000 -1.74%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.7% -20.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.17% +8.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 747,000 -2.5%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.1 +.5 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +8.6% +30.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.87/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,172 -6.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,908.09 -.21%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 +14.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 201.35 +7.4%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 282,720 -2.5%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -4.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Road & Rail +4.8%
  • Homebuilding +4.2%
  • Steel +2.3%
  • Utilities +2.2%
  • REITS +2.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Gold & Silver -4.9%
  • Airlines -5.9%
  • Alt Energy -7.6%
  • Social Media -7.7%
  • Gaming -7.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)
  • UPST, ROOT, NUE, RH, AMAT, DEN, LITE, CNX, SNOW, ANET, SFM, CCOI, KBH, CCOI, TGT, PLAY and WSM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)
  • SKLZ, SBGI, CCCC, FOXA, MSGE, MSGN, TFFP, OSCR, CODX, SAIC, GAN, DISCA and VIAC
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -3.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sector Declining
  • 71.7% of Issues Advancing, 25.5% Declining
  • 112 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
  • 86.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 48.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,816.0 +220.0 points
  • Vix 18.9 -4.4%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -8.1%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.6 +226.0%

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 34.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.36 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,564.0 -30.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.2 -.70%.
  • FTSE 100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.35%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Feb. is estimated at -$85.9B versus -$83.7B in Jan.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a -.6% decline in Jan.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.3% gain in Jan.
  • Personal Income for Feb. is estimated to fall -7.2% versus a +10.0% gain in Jan.
  • Personal Spending for Feb. is estimated to fall -.8% versus a +2.4% gain in Jan. 
  • The PCE Core MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone GDP report and the UK retail sales report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish Fed Commentary, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.4 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,476.0 -26.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.81 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 -1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.7 -3.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .89 +3.5%
  • NYSE Arms .59 -58.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.21 +.29%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 495.70 +.22%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.22 +.42%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 97.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.3 -1.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 181.05 +.84%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.65 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.33 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 148.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 153.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.10 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 151.70 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.90 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +140 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long