Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sector Declining
• 38.6% of Issues Advancing, 57.7% Declining
• 125 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 61.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,595.0 -27.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,681 +.78%
  
• Vix 15.4 -.71%
• Total Put/Call .75 -2.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.24 +58.0%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.5 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.75 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.83 -.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,623.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 +.4%.
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.12%

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALK)/1.32
• (AAL)/-1.03
• (T)/.80
• (AN)/4.20
• (BX)/.91
• (CROX)/1.86
• (DHR)/2.15
• (DOW)/2.55
• (FCX)/.81
• (GPC)/1.63
• (KEY)/.57
• (MMC)/1.00
• (NUE)/7.42
• (NVR)/88.77
• (POOL)/3.87
• (DGX)/3.06
• (SNA)/3.37
• (LUV)/-.27
• (TSCO)/1.66
• (TPH)/.89
• (UNP)/2.50
• (VLO)/.94
  

After the Close:

• (OZK)/.96
• (BJRI)/.12
• (SAM)/4.20
• (CSL)/2.75
• (CMG)/6.32
• (INTC)/1.11
• (MAT)/.72
• (OLN)/1.96
• (PSMT)/.73
• (RHI)/1.40
• (SNAP)/.08
• (WHR)/6.18
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 297K versus 293K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2548K versus 2593K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 25.0 versus 30.7 in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.9% gain in Aug.
• Existing Home Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 6.09M versus 5.88M in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Eurozone PMI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (SCHW) business update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished US Tax/Spend Fears, Earnings Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Healthcare/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.6 -.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,637.0 +33.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.33 +.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.91 -.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.6 -1.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 76.0  -27.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -4.0%

• NYSE Arms .82 unch.

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.21 -.57%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.17 -.33%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.13 -.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.9 -1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 176.06 -1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 34.93 +.17%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 8.75 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  67.25 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.92 +.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 125.0 +8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 124.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.8 +1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -74.4 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.6 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 +4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 95.2% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 169 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -8/100K people
• 32% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +85 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.0% 2) Alt Energy -.7% 3) Gambling -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AVIR, SHAK, SSYS, LNG, IONQ, ARCH, OMC, NDAQ, FNKO, PYPL, BKR, EAT, NFE AERI, BTU, HCSG and NVAX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) INDA 2) SIRI 3) NVAX 4) ATUS 5) PYPL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EAT 2) ARRY 3) NVAX 4) SEDG 5) FSLR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +2.5% 2) Homebuilding +2.0% 3) Banks +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RDUS, OLMA, RVNC, MGTX, EPAY, PINS, MQ, GRBK, MVIS, ENVX, SI, HWC, ANTM, BTBT, CRC, LRN, CLSK, KNX, WTFC, ATUS, MRTN, ME, FULT, CONE, OYST, AMTI, GATO, SKT, RAD, TEN, EVEN, OM, MSTR, CNC, TGNA, CMA, HRI, COMM, PRLD, SNV, LAD, LC, F, ETWO, ALHC, DY, SOFI, LC, TEX, BXS, SOFI, AES, IAS and CADE
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) SESN 3) CPLG 4) GPN 5) PYPL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LMDX 2) LRN 3) SI 4) ANTM 5) CLW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 67.7% of Issues Advancing, 28.4% Declining
• 135 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 60.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,651.0 +48.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,589 -.79%
  
• Vix 15.4 -1.7%
• Total Put/Call .67 -9.5%
• TRIN/Arms .96 +17.1%