Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -5.9% 2) Banks -2.5% 3) Biotech -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LNC, MQ, DKNG, GDEN, BALY, GTN, OCFC, SCU, PTC, TNDM, ZBH, XRAY, CLR, SMRT, KTOS, CZR, CHGG, TPC, ALL, ROKU, FRSH, ELF, SKLZ, MTW, NRG, DISH, QRVO, VNDA, MTTR, ATGE, NEO, SNDX, RCII, ALXO, MGNI, MRNA, OCGN, PENN and VMEO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CFX 2) MGNI 3) PENN 4) COOP 5) DISH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MRNA 2) PENN 3) ROKU 4) VMEO 5) SKLZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +3.3% 2) Disk Drives +2.4% 3) Video Gaming +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SAVA, NPTN, YELL, CCRN, MAXR, BGFV, HHC, SGMO, NKLA, OPEN, ETSY, WK, PRFT, LNTH, SSYS, QCOM, PLNT, NVDA, LUMN, QNST, QTWO, GDDY, TXG, PZZA, DNB, LWLG, BLDR, ECPG, QLYS, KNBE, PRMW, VSTO, PH, ATRC, WMS, CHWY, CPE, ONEM, IONQ, DOCN, DIN, RDFN, LPRO, BXC, WING, AMN, RPD, CLPT, SKYT, PATH, MASS, ANSS, ATHA, GOGO, ORMP, DIOD, LSCC, VLD, ALHC, APA, HUBS, ZYXI, SSSS, F, HRB, ANET, MAX, ZG, MATX, Z, SHAK, AMZN, ESI, TTWO, BBBY and QS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IBIO 2) BGFV 3) BMRN 4) BBY 5) QCOM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QCOM 2) MAXR 3) DIN 4) BLDR 5) HUBS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 43.3% of Issues Advancing, 52.2% Declining
• 209 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 62.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,253.0 -195.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,348 +1.44%
  
• Vix 16.0 +6.2%
• Total Put/Call .67 -1.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.52 +68.1%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• China Is Blowing Up One of the World’s Most Lucrative Bond Bets.  
• India Cuts Taxes on Gasoline, Diesel to Ease Consumer Bills.
• Asian Stocks Rise After Fed; Treasuries Pare Drop: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Sinks With U.S. Supplies Rising and Iran Talks Set to Resume.
• Powell Gambles on Inflation Easing as Fed Waits for More Jobs.
  
• Shiba Whale Wallets With Billions Raise Alarm of Crypto Sleuths.
  
• Deere Takes Hard Line After Workers Reject Second Offer.  
• Pelosi Readies Biden Agenda for Vote With Key Items Unsettled.  
• U.S. Expresses ‘Serious Concerns’ Over Mexico’s Electricity Plan.  
• Fox Sales and Earnings Top Estimates as TV Ad Market Recovers.  
• Electronic Arts Holiday Forecast Cites Optimism for Battlefield.  
• Treasury Curve Steepens as Fed Says No Link Between Taper, Hikes.

Wall Street Journal:

• Where Are All the Truck Drivers? Shortage Adds to Delivery Delays.
• Biden Strategy: Blame China and Russia While Securing Climate Deals.
• House Democrats Add Paid Leave, State-and-Local Tax Deduction to Bill. 
• We’re Safer From Climate Disasters Than Ever Before. Though it receives little mention from activists or the media, weather-related deaths have fallen dramatically.

Fox News:   

• How far-left 'Squad' reacted after Black Republican woman makes history in VA.
• Biden's big admission about the achievement that 'maybe' could have delivered Virginia to McAuliffe.
• Radical left's 'Defund the police' crusade REJECTED in Democrat cities nationwide.
• How Soros and far-left groups used 'dark money' stop city from hiring more police.
• Pelosi reverses $1,750,000,000,000 package cut after Dems' brutal losses.
  

CNBC.com:

• Fed to start tapering bond purchases as it begins pulling back pandemic aid.
• Roku shares drop after streaming company misses revenue estimates.
• Qualcomm shares pop after company reports earnings beat, 56% rise in smartphone chip sales.
• Ford to impose Covid vaccine mandate on most of its 32,000 salaried workers.
• A full recap of the Fed’s market-moving decision and Powell’s press conference.
• Virginia election sees highest turnout in recent history, fueling Glenn Youngkin’s victory.
• Key House panel reviews Democrats’ social spending bill as progressives push for votes this week.

MarketWatch  

• 31 stocks have hit a trifecta so far this earnings season.
  
• Why the Fed’s long-awaited taper announcement isn’t rattling the stock market.

Zero Hedge:  

• Something Really Strange Is Happening At Hospitals All Over America. Emergency rooms are filled to overflowing all over America, and nobody can seem to explain why this is happening. With less people catching the virus, you would think that would mean that our emergency rooms should be emptying out, but the opposite is actually happening. If the number of COVID cases was starting to spike again, it would make sense for emergency rooms to be overflowing. But at this particular hospital in Michigan, we are being told that some of the main things that are being treated include “abdominal pain”, “respiratory problems”, “blood clots” and “heart conditions”…
• "This Is Beyond Unacceptable": Bernie Rages As House Dems Propose Massive Tax Break For Millionaires.
• Get Ready For Food Rationing.
• COP26: Trudeau's Heightened Climate Demands On Oil & Gas Sparks Criticism Back Home.
• NJ Governor's Race Called For Incumbent Murphy After Upset Nail-Biter.
• China Facing "Downward Pressure", Premier Warns.
• "Shocker": Pentagon Review Finds 'No Misconduct' Or Legal Violations In Kabul Drone Strike That Killed Children.
• Greta Crashes COP26 To Call Bull$hit On Carbon 'Offsets', Still Hasn't Heard Of China.
• Uranium Stocks Soar As Market Discovers China's Plans For 150 Nuclear Reactors.
• Truckers Tired Of Taking Blame For Congestion Crisis At California Ports.
• China Struggles To Stamp Out Worst COVID Outbreak Since Wuhan.
• Archbishop Viganò Writes Stunning Letter On Vaccine Program.
• Stocks & Crypto Soar To Record Highs As Fed Taper Sparks Hawkish Surge In Rate-Hike Odds.

Newsmax: 

• Biden Blames Trump Voters for Big Loss in Virginia.
• Divided Dems Call for New Strategy After Va. Disaster.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• China Reportedly Urging Its Citizens to Stock Up on Daily Necessities In Case of an Emergency.
  
• BREAKING: Democrat Tricks in New Jersey Governor’s Race – Republican Winning Largest County with 100% of Votes Counted Then Vote Flips and Democrat Miraculously Wins Count.
• David vs Goliath: Conservative Edward Durr, A Humble Truck Driver of 25 Years, On Verge of Unseating Longstanding NJ Senate President After Spending Just $153 on His Entire Campaign.
• Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Holds Presser and Announces New Law Enforcement Office for Election Integrity – Crowd Breaks Out in ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ (VIDEO).
• Virginia’s Newest Lt. Gov. and Highest Ranking Minority Female in State History – Winsome Sears – Leads Chants of “USA! USA!” After Historic Victory.
• On One Year Anniversary of the 2020 Election Steal – Was the 2021 Virginia Race a Head-fake by Democrats?
• REMINDER: One Year Ago on Election Night 300,000 Votes for Joe Biden Magically Appeared in Virginia to Give Biden the Win.
• BREAKING: Ilhan Omar HUMILIATED As Her Radical Push To Defund [Replace] Police Is Rejected By Voters In MN.

The Epoch Times:

• China Might Have 1,000 Nuclear Warheads by 2030, Pentagon Report Warns.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.25 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.5 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.08 +.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,505.0 +56.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.7 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.6%.

• S&P 500 futures +.1%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AES)/.44
• (APD)/2.49
• (ABC)/2.36
• (APTV)/.32
• (BDX)/2.45
• (BLUE)/-2.65
• (CARS)/.44
• (DISH)/.90
• (DUK)/1.80
• (IRM)/.63
• (K)/.93
• (MRNA)/9.42
• (MUR)/.18
• (PZZA)/.71
• (PH)/3.70
• (PENN)/.91
• (PWR)/1.46
• (REGN)/9.94
• (VIAC)/.76
• (VMC)/1.65
• (W)/.02
• (ZBH)/1.76
• (ZTS)/1.11
  

After the Close:

• (ABNB)/.85
• (AIG)/.91
• (BGS)/.57
• (BILL)/-.21
• (CVNA)/-.28
• (NET)/-.04
• (CGNX)/.45
• (ED)/1.48
• (DDOG)/.06
• (DBX)/.35
• (LOCO)/.22
• (EOG)/2.05
• (FSLR)/.60
• (FTNT)/.94
• (ILMN)/1.22
• (IAC)/-.34
• (MTZ)/1.70
• (MELI)/1.26
• (MCHP)/1.06
• (MNST)/.67
• (NWSA)/.15
• (OXY)/.57
• (PTON)/-1.14
• (QDEL)/3.07
• (RDFN)/-.19
• (SHAK)/-.06
• (SWKS)/2.54
• (SFM)/.40
• (SQ)/.37
• (STMP)/1.65
• (UBER)/-.16
• (OLED)/1.08
• (YELP)/.48
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST:

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Oct.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 275K versus 281K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2150K versus 2243K prior. 
• 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to fall -3.1% versus a +2.1% gain in 2Q.
• 3Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +7.0% versus a +1.3% gain in 2Q.
• The Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated at -$80.2B versus -$73.3B in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of England rate decision, OPEC meeting, Eurozone Factory Orders report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (CS) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Dovish FOMC Commentary, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -3.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,432.0 +100.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.39 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.11 -.65%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.8 -4.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 136.0  +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .62 -11.4%

• NYSE Arms .82 -40.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.18 -1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 360.11 +.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.49 -.73%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.07 -.14%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 182.47 -2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.22 +1.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 9.5 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  62.0 -2.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.99 +.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 106.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.5 +15.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.6 +2.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.2 -.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +4.0 basis points
• 95.1% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 84.1% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 155 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +0/100K people
• 29% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +225 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 52.8% of Issues Advancing, 42.7% Declining
• 186 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 60.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,341.0 +11.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,038 +.02%
  
• Vix 16.1 +.4%
• Total Put/Call .60 -14.3%
• TRIN/Arms 98.0 -28.5%