Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -1.7% 2) Utilities -1.4% 3) Networking -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FTDR, LIND, SHAK, LYV, RDBX, TSE, TPGY, CFLT, PTON, ALHC, VSAT, METC, KDNY, ADS, BLUE and EHTH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KEY 2) LYV 3) AMRS 4) COTY 5) MAT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EHTH 2) BLUE 3) PTON 4) RDUS 5) LYV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.9% 2) Steel +3.5% 3) Video Gaming +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EVGO, TTD, FCEL, BLNK, QS, MARA, PTRA, RIOT, GRWG, VLTA, BGFV, TLRY, SKLZ, BLDE, BE, CHPT, CORT, PRVA, AMD, COTY, CLSK, EDIT, NKLA, ZETA, EVER, LCID, OLO, WW, MGNI, SUM, IONQ, NKTR, XPDI, LAZR, U, CPE, MTZ, BKI, EVOP, FLYW, WMS, AOSL, VTRS, GPRO, QRTEA, LYFT, F, LYFT, XLNX, MSGE, VMC, VIR, VMEO, TMST, TPIC, AMN, UIS, UCTT, TILE, SCCO, CVET, TPC, MLM, NVDA, CAT, MAT, XPRO, EXPE, SQSP, LFG, SWKS and ARCB
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) REV 2) NWSA 3) DCPH 4) RCL 5) BKR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EVGO 2) TTD 3) CAT 4) LSCC 5) VMC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 54.1% of Issues Advancing, 41.6% Declining
• 230 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 64.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,026.0 -58.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,286 -.05%
  
• Vix 17.6 +6.7%
• Total Put/Call .57 -26.9%
• TRIN/Arms .78 -24.3%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Xi Set to Unveil New Doctrine That Could Let Him Rule for Life.  
• China’s Deafening Silence Speaks Loudest at Global Climate Talks.  
• China’s Coal Imports Double After Power Shortage Boosted Demand.
  
• Aussie Dollar Looks Vulnerable After Massive Repricing of Rates.  
• BHP Extends Fossil Fuels Withdrawal With Met Coal Asset Sale.  
• Lost Decade Lingers as Emerging-Market Stocks Trail U.S. Peers.  
• In a World Desperate for Wheat, Australia and Argentina Step Up.
• Stocks Steady as Recovery Mulled; Treasuries Dip: Markets Wrap.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  
• OPEC+ and Saudis Will Stay Cautious on Oil Output, Says Vitol.
• Crypto Tesla Tokens Drop 6.8% After Musk Suggests Selling Stock.
• Starbucks Union Vote Sets Up a Watershed Moment for U.S. Labor.
  
• Child Vaccine Demand Underscores Deep Divisions in U.S.   
• U.S. Flights Reopen, Handing British Airways $1 Billion Lifeline.  
• Turbocharged U.S. Consumer Plays Key Role in Supply-Chain Snarls.
• Cars Cost More Than Ever, and They’re Selling Faster, Too.  
• After Decades of Breeding Bigger Birds, Some Producers Are Shrinking the Chicken.  
• The Power Grid Is Just Another Casino for Energy Traders.

Wall Street Journal:

• Republicans Rescue Biden’s Agenda. Will the infrastructure bill grease the wheels for the Democrats’ $4 trillion spending blowout?   
• Natural-Gas Exports Lift Prices for American Utilities.
  
• Tragedy at Travis Scott Show Prompts New Questions.
• Electric-Vehicle Charging Stations Win Jolt of Energy in Congress.
• Government-Bond Swings Burn Wall Street Investors.
• The Economic Rebound From Covid-19 Was Easy. Now Comes the Hard Part.
• Iraqi Prime Minister Targeted in Assassination Attempt.

Fox News: 

• Biden administration ponders shutting down another pipeline as gas prices soar igniting new fury.
• Hannity blasts Biden Energy Sec for laughing at fuel price concerns: 'Makes your blood boil'.
• Biden administration 'took a chainsaw' to energy industry, global security: Dagen McDowell.

CNBC:

• ‘This is going to be one of the best Christmas seasons ever’: bull Ed Yardeni.
• Retailers hail lifting of travel ban, return of international tourists with hopes of sales rebound.
• Nuclear fusion start-up Helion scores $375 million investment from Open AI CEO Sam Altman.

Zero Hedge:

• Parents Increasingly Worried About Being Forced To Vaccinate Young Children As Biden Tightens Mandates.
• Biden Admin Silent As EU, Iran, & China Freely Violate US Sanctions.
• Get Ready For Your 'Woke' 401(k).
• Biden's Infrastructure Plan May Be Hugely Inflationary.
• US Rents Rose At Slowest Pace Since February In Latest Sign Of Housing Market Exhaustion.
• Here's Everything America Gets For $1.2 Trillion In Infrastructure Spending - Including The Crazy Stuff.
• Veteran Dem Strategist Sums Up Liberals' Electability Issue: "They're Not Popular... They Need A Woke Detox".
• How Media And Tech Elites Seized Control Of Elections.
• Iran Blames US For Assassination Attempt On Iraq PM As Fresh Unrest Set To Explode In Streets.
• Austria Moves Closer To Imposing Lockdown On The Unvaccinated.
• Shocked Goldman Trader Admits "I Could Never Imagine Typing These Large Numbers".
• California's Attempt To Hobble Gifted Students Over 'Racial Disparities' Starting To Backfire
• Maté: Russiagate Has No Rock-Bottom.
• 5 Unanswered Questions As FBI Raids Project Veritas Over A Missing Biden Diary.
• Majority Of Twitter Poll Respondents Say Musk Should Sell 10% Of His Tesla Stock.
• New Poll Suggests GOP Victory In 2022; Biden Approval Sinks To 38% While Kamala's Even Worse.
• Surgeon General: Biden Admin 'Prepared To Defend' OSHA Vaccine Mandate After Court Ruling.
• Chicago Homicide Crisis Worsens As Mayor Lightfoot Fails To Quell Violence.
• China Trade Surplus Hits Record Just As US Trade Deficit Rises To All-Time High.
• Bill Gates: "Germ Games" Needed To Prepare For Bioterrorist Attacks.

MarketWatch.com:                

• ‘It’s a melt-up’: U.S. stocks are on an unusually strong run heading into the holidays.
•  Elon Musk let Twitter users decide whether to sell 10% of his Tesla stock. They said yes.  
• A bargain you can’t ignore: Small-cap stocks are trading at their second-biggest discount in 20 years.
  
• Peloton stock’s pain is the mirror opposite of Planet Fitness’ gain.

NewsMax:  

• Mark Meadows: Climate Agenda 'Wrapped in Dollar Bills'.
• Rep. Pat Fallon: 13 Republicans Do 'Nancy Pelosi's Bidding, Biden's Work'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden’s Surgeon General Doesn’t Rule Out Extending Vaccine Mandate to Businesses with Fewer Than 100 Employees (VIDEO).
• Plane With ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ Banner Flies Over Georgia Bulldogs’ Football Game (VIDEO).
• Samantha Power and Biden Regime Announce $300 Million Payday to Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala for Equitable Economic Growth, Human Rights and Fighting Gender-Based Violence in Migration “Root Causes” Funding.
• UPDATE: Newsmax Opposes Vaccine Mandate and Will Not Enforce Vaccine Mandate at Company.
• WATCH: George Floyd’s Nephew Makes Video Threatening Jurors if They Do Not Convict Kyle Rittenhouse.
• DeSantis Working to Stop Illegal Aliens Being Shipped to Florida.
• Dystopia Down Under: Thousands of Australians With Unpaid Fines for Breaking Covid Rules Have Bank Accounts Raided and Property Seized As Tyrannical Government Chases Millions in Fees.
• Democrat Thought Leader AOC Slams James Carville for Blaming Election Losses on Far Left’s Marxist, Wokeness Agenda.
• BREAKING: Appeals Court Temporarily Halts Biden’s Vaccine Mandate for Businesses.
• BREAKING: FBI Raids Project Veritas Founder James O’Keefe’s Home Over Ashley Biden Diary.
  

The Epoch Times:

• Parents Worried About China’s Vaccine Orders on Children.
• Jailed Chinese Journalist Who Reported on Wuhan Outbreak Might Not Survive the Winter, Family Says.
  

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 +5.0  basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 49.55 +3.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.08 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,191.0 +107.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.48 -.13%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.08%.
• S&P 500 futures -.19%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (TTD)/.15
• (THS)/.50

After the Close:

• (DDD)/.05
• (AMC)/-.54
• (NHI)/1.18
• (EDU)/.03 
• (PYPL)/1.08
• (RMAX)/.63
• (RBLX)/-.08
• (SANM)/.99
• (TREX)/.58
• (TRIP)/.24
• (SPCE)/-.28
• (ZNGA)/.07
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Clarida speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Eurogroup meeting, $56B 3Y T-Note auction, JPMorgan Consumer/Retail/Luxury Conference, Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference, (AMD) data center event, (ALB) fireside chat and the (MCHP) could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.5 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.25 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.88 -.05%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,339.0 +3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.1 -.17%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.07%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.1%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AXL)/.00
• (GOOS)/-.09
• (D)/1.06
• (DKNG)/-1.06
• (ELAN)/.17
• (FLR)/.15
• (GT)/.26
• (HMC)/62.94
• (JCI)/.87
• (MGA)/.72
• (UI)/2.62
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Oct. is estimated at 450K versus 194K in Sept.
• The Unemployment Rate for Oct. is estimated to fall to 4.7% versus 4.8% in Sept.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Sept.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate for Oct. is estimated at 61.8% versus 61.6% in Sept.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Sept. is estimated to rise to $16.0B versus $14.379B in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Industrial Production report and the (DOX) investor update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.9 +5.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,277.0 -171.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.47 -.75%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.04 -.55%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.3 -2.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 130.0  +6.6 points
  

• Total Put/Call .68 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.64 +80.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.24 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 352.36 -2.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.71 -3.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 116.0 -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.32 -.74%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.30 -1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.1 -.42%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 unch.
  

• TED Spread 10.0 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 +3.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.87 -.32%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 113.0 +7.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.35 USD/Metric Tonne -3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.4 +1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.6 -1.0 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.7 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 +2.0 basis points
• 97.6% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 86.8% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 152 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -3/100K people
• 29% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -89 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -111 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long