Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                 

• China’s Xi Urges Stabilizing Agriculture, Rural Development: TV.
  
• Trudeau Says China ‘Playing’ Western States Against Each Other.  
• Walmart Blasted by Chinese Consumers Over Missing Xinjiang Items.
• China Reports Most Daily Local Infection Cases Since January.
• World Economy Now Set to Surpass $100 Trillion in 2022.  
• Saudi Arabia’s Exports Surge in October on Higher Oil Prices. 
• U.S. Futures Rise as Traders Mull Virus, China Vow: Markets Wrap.
• The Most All-Time Highs in 26 Years: 2021's Wild Year for Stocks.
• Wall Street Ends Crazy Year With Existential Angst and Big Bonuses.  
• Holiday Sales Jump 8.5% as U.S. Consumers Return to Retailers.  
• Charting the Global Economy: Inflation Steadies in Latin America. 
• Holiday Sales Jump 8.5% as U.S. Consumers Return to Retailers.
• Meme Madness, 68 New Highs: Superlatives Abound in 26% S&P Rally. 
• New York State Reports Record New Covid-19 Cases on Dec. 24.   
• Airlines’ U.S. Holiday Flight Cuts Top 2,800 on Crew Shortages.  
• Major Storm Dumps Snow, Closes Mountain Routes in California.  
• Apple’s Next Step in Services Could Be New Bundles, Deeper Integration.

Wall Street Journal:

• Wall Street Bets S&P 500 Is Due for a Slowdown in 2022.
• White-Collar Employee Salaries Start to Swell.
• What It Means to Be Fully Vaccinated Is Changing.
• Lawmakers Want Biden to Play Bigger Role Pushing Tech Laws.
• Early Holiday Shopping Helps Offset Omicron Damper.
• TikTok Diagnosis Videos Leave Some Teens Thinking They Have Rare Mental Disorders.
• Some Job Seekers Get Loud About Their Availability. 
• How Fauci and Collins Shut Down Covid Debate. They worked with the media to trash the Great Barrington Declaration.
• When Populism Turns to Tyranny. Latin America has reversed its turn to democracy. Could the U.S. do the same?

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (WMT), (COST), (TGT), (BJ), (M), (KSS), (UAL), (HLT), (LYV) and (CNK).
• Had bearish commentary on (AAPL), (MSFT) and (GOOGL).

Fox News:    

• Cities around the world shelve, restrict New Year's celebrations as omicron surges.
• Dad who said ‘Let’s go, Brandon’ on Biden call says he's getting threats. 
• US Navy locks down ship after COVID cases emerge among fully vaxxed crew.

CNBC:

• Here’s where four-legged robot dogs are finding work in a tight labor market.
• Omicron drives Christmas weekend flight cancellations above 1,500.

Zero Hedge: 

• UK Mulls Door-To-Door Vaccination Squads.  
• A Colossal Theft In Pain Sight.
• Inflation In 2021 Far Different From What We Had In 1979.
• USA Swimming Official Quits Over Trans Swimmer Competing Against Women.
• "Outpacing 2019 Levels": All Of A Sudden, There Is A Rental Car Supply Crisis.
• Canada Admits To Secretly Tracking 33 Million Phones During Covid-19 Lockdown.
• 2,400 Flights Canceled Since Christmas Eve On Crew Shortage.
• Russia Withdraws 10,000 Troops From "Drills" Near Ukraine In Christmas De-escalation.
• "Incredibly Strong" Demand For RVs Leads To Another Month Of Blowout Shipments.
• Macleod: Gold And Silver Prospects For 2022.
• Anti-Apartheid Leader Desmond Tutu Dies At 90.
• Who Got It Right? A Look Back At Expert Predictions For 2021. 
• Stockman: 'Patriotic Duty' My Eye. 
• Marines Have Now Booted 169 For Vaccine Refusal - All Religious Exemptions Denied.
• Belgium Man Arrested While Attempting To Get 9th COVID-19 Vaccine On Behalf Of Others.
• NFL's Chief Medical Officer Warns There's Almost No Indication Of Asymptomatic Spread.
• COVID-19 Restrictions Questioned As Omicron-Related Hospitalizations Remain Low.
• "Alexa, You're Fired" - A Quarter Of Users Abandon Spying Devices Within 2 Weeks.
• Inflation Is A Policy That Cannot Last.
• US Warship Stuck In Port After COVID-19 Outbreak Among "100 Percent Immunized" Crew.
• Biden Admin Rejected October Proposal For "Free Rapid Tests For The Holidays".
• 'Biden Seems Confused': CNN Openly Questions President's Cognitive Health After Yet Another Slip Up.

NewsMax:

• Stephen Miller: No President Lost Public's Confidence Faster Than Biden. 
• Experts Warn Pfizer Antiviral Pills May Pose Risks With Other Medications.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• HORROR: Four Young Soccer Stars from Four Different Countries Die This Week After Suffering Sudden Heart Attacks.
• 49-Year-Old New York Times Editor Dies of Heart Attack One Day After Boasting About Getting Covid Booster Shot. 
• Investigation Has Launched After Three-Year-Old Girl Dies From Cardiac Arrest One Day After Receiving COVID-19 Vaccine in Argentina.
• Nearly Every Election Activity in Fulton County, Georgia, Was Outsourced on Election Day to Groups and Individuals Other than the County.
• Elon Musk: “I’m Not Perverted Enough” To Do And Interview On CNN (VIDEO).
• USS Milwaukee Warship Confined in Cuba After COVID Outbreak Hits Fully Vaccinated Crew.
• Video: Drone Has Ability to Take Down Illegal Aliens Crossing Border by Shooting Taser Out of It. 
• UPDATE: COVID Mask Karen in FBI Custody After Attacking Man on Plane for Eating Unmasked.
• Maskless COVID Cultist Oprah Winfrey and Family Celebrate Christmas Feast In Mansion Alongside Masked Servants.
• If Republican Leaders Will Not Speak Out Against Election Officials Removing GOP Observers from Room, Pulling Out Hidden Suitcases of Votes and Shoving Stacks of Ballots Thru Machines 3 Times, Then the Grand Old Party’s Days Are Over.
• Democrats ‘Make History’ by Electing Convicted Killer as Nominee for Key Position.
• The Biden Effect – Saudi Arabia Begins Building Its Own Ballistic Missiles with Help from China.
• Well, This Does Not Look Good… GA Election Official Gabe Sterling Gets Caught After He Claimed There Were No Duplicate Ballots in 2020 election.
• Dem Rep Calls Out Kamala Over Border Crisis–“Doesn’t Look Like She’s Very Interested”.
• Georgia Voter Files from 2020 and Even 2016 Are Changing – Why Are These Likely Illegal Actions Secretly Happening?
• With Thousands of Americans Reportedly Stranded in Country — The Taliban Halts All Evacuee Flights Out of Afghanistan.
• COVID Crazy: Unmasked Mask Karen Attacks Passenger on Plane; Punches, Scratches and Spits on Man for Taking Mask Off to Eat (Video).

The Epoch Times:

• 13 Million People Under Lockdown in City in Northwest China Due to Spread of COVID-19, Struggling for Food and Supplies.

Twitter:

• @DiscloseTV - NOW - Austria: Protest in #Vienna for peace and freedom, and against Covid restrictions and compulsory vaccinations. (video) 
• @DiscloseTV - NEW - Chinese app TikTok signed a partnership with Stonewall, "the controversial lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender rights charity," to promote "trans" and "transitioning" material.
• @ProtestNews_EN - Germany Demonstration on Christmas Eve in Regensburg against corona tyranny! (video)
• @ProtestNews_EN - Israel rising! Last night in Ra’anana, thousands marching for freedom. people chanting: ENOUGH with coercion! Enough vaxxed turned into 4-times-a-year jabbed humans, Enough with hurting our kids’ mental & physical state, & enough w radicalizing restrictions on unvaxxed.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 701,126 Reports(+9,243 from prior report) Through December 17, 2021. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.5 -.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 55.9 -.43%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,996.0 -8.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.7 +.4%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.08%.
• S&P 500 futures +.11%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Dec. is estimated to rise to 14.0 versus 11.8 in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Unemployment report, 2Y T-Note auction and the Metaverse Conference 2021 could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                 

• Japan’s Key Consumer Price Gains Hit 2% After Dialing Out Phones.  
• German President Issues Pandemic Warning as Omicron Spreads.
• Stocks Steady as Worry Over Omicron Virulence Ebbs: Markets Wrap.
• Omicron Study in U.K. Bolsters Evidence of Lower Hospital Risks.  
• NYC to Limit Crowds for New Year’s Eve Due to Covid Spike.  
• Hedge Funds Kick Risk Addiction at End of Crazy Year for Stocks.  
• Biden Supports Filibuster Change on Voting Rights as Last Resort.
• Baltimore Police Officer Dies Days After Being Shot in Patrol Car.

Wall Street Journal:

• Omicron Starts to Slow Some U.S. Economic Activity.
• Intel Apologizes for Asking Suppliers to Avoid China Region.
• Florida’s Plague Is the Media’s Cold. Covid is suddenly funny and cool now that all the right people are getting it. 

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

CNBC:

• S&P 500 closes at a record following 3-day rebound from omicron sell-off.
• EV stocks soared on hype in 2021 — investors are betting 2022 will bring actual revenue.
• Meme stocks, SPAC craze and a $100 million deli: It was a wild year in the market. 
• Rising flu cases threaten hospital capacity as Covid surges into the holidays.

MarketWatch.com:      

• Opinion: Chinese stocks cut $600 billion from U.S. markets in 2021, and are just getting started.
  
• Nationwide rideshare and delivery scam put thousands of unqualified Uber and Lyft drivers onto the road with stolen identities.
  
• This real estate debt is roaring back to fund commercial properties thrown into flux by pandemic.

Fox News:

• White House staffers reportedly planning to leave Biden admin soon as president's popularity sinks.
• Biden's approval rating on crime tanks amid rise in smash-and-grab robberies.
• Biden, Democrats face grim findings in 2 new polls asking voters how president's doing.
• Former teammate dunks on LeBron James: 'He ruined basketball'.

Newsmax:   

• Dr. Jha: 'Absolutely No Reason to Panic' About Omicron.
• Rep. Fleischmann: Biden Border Policy Killing Americans With Drug Imports.

Zero Hedge:

• "An Acquittal Wouldn't Surprise Me": Lawyers Ask Why Just Four Epstein Accusers Were Called During Maxwell Trial.
• Second Royal Caribbean Cruise Ship Suffers COVID Outbreak, Denied Entry To Aruba And Curacao.
• Democrats' Dismal Outlook for 2022 Midterm Elections Continues To Worsen.
• CCP Locks Down 13 Million People In Xi'an Over 200 Cases As Winter Olympics Approach.
• Ex-Minneapolis Police Officer Kim Potter Found Guilty Of Manslaughter In Death Of Daunte Wright.
• "No Country Can Boost Its Way Out" - WHO Warns Biden Plan Could "Prolong" Pandemic.
• US, Japan Draft Plans To Set Up Attack Base In Event China Invades Taiwan.
• Life Expectancy In 2020 Fell 2.3% To 77 Years. Does This Justify The COVID Panic?
• New Satellite Images Purport To Show Russian Force Build-Up Near Ukraine.
• "Terrible!": CNN Turns On Biden, Highlights Horrendous Economic Polling While Making Jimmy Carter Comparisons.
• 7 Staffers In Top Pentagon Delegation Test Positive For Covid, Despite All Being Vaxxed.
• Top 10 Themes For 2022: Part 2.
• Sen. Paul Details $52 Billion Federal "Waste" In Annual 'Festivus Report'.
• An ATH a day...
• Stocks & Crypto Soar In Shortened Week As Rate-Hike Odds Surge.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• IT BEGINS: Top Democrat Marc Elias Proposes Chinese-Style Censorship – Only Approved Republicans Will Be Allowed to Run for Future Office.
• EXCLUSIVE SMOKING GUN: Lawsuit Reveals Fulton County 2020 Absentee Ballot Results Were Physically Impossible and Files Were Modified.
• MSNBC Medical Analyst Dr. Vin Gupta Says the Unvaxxed Should be Denied Care in Hospitals (VIDEO).
• BRILLIANT: The 12 Days of Election Cover-Ups in Georgia – From Voter GA.
• Report: Fairfax County Police Seize Electronics, Hard Drives of CNN Producer Rick Saleeby After Texts Show Solicitation of Underage Photos.
• Busted: CNN Reports First Omicron Death in Texas — BUT HOSPITAL SAYS IT’S NOT TRUE (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• US Running Out of Time to Prepare for Possible War With China Over Taiwan: Experts
• The Ethical Risks of China’s ‘Brain Control’ Tech.

The Independent:

• MAXWELL CAMERAS. Why is the Ghislaine Maxwell trial not being televised live?
• Ghislaine Maxwell trial news – Ghislaine Maxwell trial updates: Socialite to spend birthday in jail awaiting sex trafficking case verdict.

Twitter:

• @DiscloseTV - NOW - Elon Musk: "Wokeness basically wants to make comedy illegal, which is not cool... do we want a humorless society that is simply rife with condemnation, and hate?" (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 701,126 Reports(+9,243) Through December 17, 2021.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Diminished US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -3.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,033.0 +186.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.70 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 +.09%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 29.4 -5.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0  -30.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -3.7%

• NYSE Arms .80 -22.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.97 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 397.69 -2.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.08 -2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.0 -1.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 195.20 -.88%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.05 -.23%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 15.75 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.75 -2.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 55.62 +1.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 79.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.25 USD/Metric Tonne +4.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.9 -4.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.5 +3.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.4 +1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.50 +1.0 basis point
• 43.5%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 30.0%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 352 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +24/100K people
• 66% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +4.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/medical/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) REITs -.7% 2) Telecom -.4% 3) Digital Health -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CROX, SCPL and QDEL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AMRS 2) LUMN 3) ZNGA 4) ATOS 5) CROX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) INNV 2) JD 3) ALF 4) BLI 5) ZME
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume