Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 56.0% of Issues Advancing, 40.4% Declining
• 70 New 52-Week Highs, 51 New Lows
• 44.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,003.0 +276.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,545 +1.2%
  
• Vix 22.9 -2.8%
• Total Put/Call .97 +12.8%
• TRIN/Arms .70 -23.1%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Stalled Elsewhere, Russia Focuses on Mariupol in Plan B.
• Ukraine Update: Biden Says Hypersonic Missile Shows Desperation.
• S&P to Pull Credit Ratings for All Russian Firms After EU Ban.
• Russia's Long-Term Oil Growth at Risk From Service Firms’ Pullback.
  
• Australia Consumer Confidence Plunges as Price Expectations Jump.  
• China Stockpiles Record Cash In a Sign of Slow Fiscal Stimulus.
• Stock Climb Weathers Bond Tumble, Rally in Crude: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Surges On Growing Supply Fears as EU Considers Russian Ban.
• Powell Is Ready to Back Half-Point Hike in May If It’s Necessary.
• Powell Says Look at Short-Term Treasury Yield Curve for Recession Risk.  
• Oil Thirst Is Forcing Biden to Pivot U.S. Back to Saudi Arabia.
• ‘Waking Everyone Up’: Wall Street Reacts to Powell’s Hawkishness.  
• How Surging Oil Prices Will Affect You Beyond the Gas Pump.  
• Bonds Suffer One of Worst Days in a Decade as Fed Spurs Rethink.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia Intensifies Pressure Campaign on Ukraine.
• War Complicates Biden Administration’s Military Strategy on China and Russia.
• EU Support Grows for Russia Oil Ban.
• Latest Updates | War Disrupts International Space Projects.
• Fed Will Consider More-Aggressive Rate Increases.
• The Price of a Lunch Salad Went Berserk While You Were Working From Home.
• Gary Gensler Stages a Climate Coup. The SEC Chairman does the bidding of BlackRock and the left.
• Shale Companies Drilling More, but Oil Output Growing Little.

Fox News:  

• LIVE UPDATES: Putin puts Russian spies on notice, running out of patience over stalled invasion.
• Think your grocery bill is high now? Experts warn just wait.
• 'STAGFLATION': Why economists are worrying about a 1970s-style catastrophe.

CNBC.com:

• Powell says the Fed will take ‘necessary steps’ to address high inflation.
• SEC proposes broad climate rules as Chair Gensler says risk disclosure will help investors.

MarketWatch:

• The best-performing sector of the S&P 500 is still the cheapest, while technology stocks look overvalued.
  
• ‘The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift’: Home sales may drop 25% by the end of summer, analyst warns.
  
• Nike stock rises 5% after earnings and sales beat but China slump continues

Zero Hedge:

• US Unexpectedly Sanctions China Officials Hours After Demanding Beijing Condemn Russia.
• US Sending Soviet Anti-Air Defense Systems To Ukraine That Were "Secretly Acquired".
• Shanghai Reports Record Surge In COVID Cases.
• Aviation Experts Baffled By Crash Of China Eastern Airlines Flight MU5735.
• April 2020 But In Reverse: One Bank Warns We Are About To Witness A Historic Short Squeeze Eruption In Oil.
• "Some F*ckery Is Afoot" - Rogan Slams "Outright Crazy" Media Coverage Of Hunter Biden Laptop Story.
• How Much Waste Is In The $1.5 Trillion Spending Bill.
• Manhattan's Third-Largest Hotel To Sell At Staggering Loss.
• 3,000 Canadian Pacific Rail Workers Strike As Fertilizer Shipments Grind To Halt.
• Severe Drought & "Dust Bowl Conditions" Threaten Disastrous Winter Wheat Harvest In The US.
• Hedge Funds Sell Record 1 Billion Barrels In Oil Futures Just As Prices Explode Higher.
• Unchanged...
• Bonds Battered, Stocks Slide As Powell Channels Volcker; Crude Surges.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Grassley: White House Covering Up 48,000 Documents on SCOTUS Nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson (VIDEO).
• Judge Halts DC Law Allowing Minors to Get Vaccinated Without Parental Consent.
• “It’s Coming” – Joe Biden Casually Says Russia is Planning a Cyberattack Against the United States (VIDEO).
• Democrat Boston Mayor Says She’s Used to Dealing with Problems That Are “Expensive, Disruptive and White” (VIDEO).
• MUST WATCH: Hawley Outlines Seven Cases Where Ketanji Brown Jackson Was Lenient on Pedophiles.
• Russia Is Systematically Destroying NATO Training Sites IN UKRAINE.
• WAYNE ROOT: Has One Rigged Election Destroyed America Forever? The Odds Are Against Us.
• Update: Rafael Nadal After Complaining of Breathing Problems Following Tennis Match – “It Feels like Needles – When I Try to Breathe It’s Painful” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• America’s Security Requires Ending Reliance on China Supply Chains: Rep. Harshbarger.

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - NOW - Biden: Times have shifted, "New World Order" coming. (video)
  
• @VigilantFox -  Dr. McCullough Closes the Case on Mass Formation —There Is Too Much Evidence -People driving alone in cars with masks on. 22% of the Participants in the Pfizer Trials Had an 'Unknown' Outcome - Dr. Jessica Rose "If a pharmaceutical company that's basically in charge of the entire human population right now, and that's true, is asking not to reveal its safety data for 75 years, you should get concerned because the only reason anyone would ask not to reveal safety data is if they're afraid of what people are going to think about the safety data." (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 788,623 Reports(+5,342 from prior week) Through March 11th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 -2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 60.25 +5.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.85 -.12%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,743.0 +16.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.8 +1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.66%.

• S&P 500 futures -.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CCL)/-1.21
• (INFO)/.83
  

After the Close:

• (AIR)/.58
• (ADBE)/3.34
• (POSH)/-.18
• (WOR)/1.37
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to rise to 2.0 versus 1.0 in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (WRB) 3-for-2
• (ACMR) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Currency Account report, weekly US retail sales reports, DA Davidson EV Conference, KeyBanc Life Sciences/MedTech Investor Forum, (NTAP) investor day, (REAL) investor day and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Fed "Behind the Curve" Fears, Diminishing Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.6 +3.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,652.0 +123.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.02 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.5 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.6 +3.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 456.0 +346.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 +6.4%

• NYSE Arms .99 -22.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.06 +12.0% (March contract roll)
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.5  -3.9%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.21 +10.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.60 +5.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 233.92 -16.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.83 +.86% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,051.60 +1.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 56.5 +4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.91 -.91%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.89 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .46% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 25.25 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 149.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.2 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.2 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.3 -2.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.94 +4.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 72 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -90.2%(-1.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +288 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -4.1% 2) Social Media -3.4% 3) Airlines -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MDB, CTAS, PRCT, TLS, WHR, CALM, DDS, ETW, VRT, MU, TSP, ACLS, WEBR, SPR, AMLX, CCCS, BURL, AMTX, BJ, DAL, YOU, BA, AAL, SQ, MQ, CTKB, CRWD, GFS, EPAM, UBER, GTLB, IEA, HLI, PLCE, RDFN, PACB, ZI, NLSN, SYNA, SG, SNOW, DFH, LOB and SST
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NLSN 2) REI 3) HPQ 4) ALK 5) BA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ALNA 2) IMGN 3) MRNS 4) BILI 5) BLND
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +3.3% 2) Steel +2.9% 3) Agriculture +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PLAN, IPI, RVNC, COUP, OXY, INSW, SD, LXU and UUUU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NILE 2) SEAC 3) WY 4) REI 5) DD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NRSN 2) AA 3) OXY 4) UFCS 5) IAS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 49.5% of Issues Advancing, 47.3% Declining
• 103 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 44.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,676.0 +154.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,279 -.84%
  
• Vix 24.1 +1.1%
• Total Put/Call .78 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 -10.9%