Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.5 -1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.75 +2.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.47 -.04%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,951.0 -1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.0 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DRI)/2.1
• (FDS)/2.97
• (TITN)/.54
  

After the Close:

• (NIO)/-1.08

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 4Q Current Account Balance is estimated to widen to -$218.0B versus -$214.8B in 3Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 210K versus 214K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1400K versus 1419K prior.
• Durable Goods Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall -.6% versus a +1.6% gain in Jan.
• Durables Ex Transports for Feb. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in Jan.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in Jan.
  

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for March is estimated to fall to 56.6 versus 57.3 in Feb.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for March is estimated to fall to 56.0 versus 56.5 in Feb.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for March is estimated to fall to 54.4 versus 55.9 in Feb.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to 27.0 versus 29.0 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Eurozone PMI report, NATO Summit, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (CLS) investor day and the Goldman Digital Economy Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50  % net long heading into the day.

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 40.9% of Issues Advancing, 55.8% Declining
• 65 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
• 43.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,041.0 +42.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,586 +.39%
  
• Vix 22.9 -.3%
• Total Put/Call .76 -17.4%
• TRIN/Arms .53 -29.2%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.75 -2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 59.5 -.75 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.07 -.05%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,091.0 +90.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.0 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.78%.

• S&P 500 futures +.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CTAS)/2.44
• (GIS)/.78
• (JKS)/.90
• (WGO)/2.91
  

After the Close:

• (FUL)/.73
• (KBH)/1.54
• (OLLI)/.66
• (OXM)/1.45
• (SCS)/0.00
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to rise to 810K versus 801K in Jan.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -337,500 barrels versus a +4,345,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,500,000 barrels versus a -3,615,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -975,000 barrels versus a +332,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.06% versus a +1.1% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• (WRB) 3-for-2
• (ACMR) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Senate hearing on semis, Eurozone Services PMI report, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Sidoti Small-Cap Conference, (WEX) investor day and the (WOOF) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.9 -2.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,996.0 +268.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.12 +1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.3 -.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -356.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 +12.8%

• NYSE Arms .66 -27.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.70 -1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.53  +.04%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.50 -.93%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.19 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 235.29 +.78%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.2 +1.3% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,114.65 +2.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 45.0 -11.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  113.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.79 -.08%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.03 +.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .48% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 16.25 -9.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 144.8 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.8 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.4 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.6 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.95 +1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 71 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -90.2%(n/a) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +216 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +55 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -1.0% 2) Energy -.6% 3) Oil Service -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OKTA, TDW, IPI, THS, ASIX, NKTX and METC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PPC 2) FLEX 3) IVV 4) CFX 5) NKE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ORIC 2) OKTA 3) GRAB 4) DAVE 5) GATO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.8% 2) Video Gaming +2.5% 3) Internet +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GME, HRT, AOSL, HEAR, IRTC, SON, JXN, DAR, ECL and NKE
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EGHT 2) EXPR 3) AVCT 4) ALL 5) COOP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BKKT 2) SON 3) SPR 4) PDD 5) ADBE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume