Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -14.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 45.5% of Issues Advancing, 49.3% Declining
• 41 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 39.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,680.0 -154.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,031.44 +.38%
  
• Vix 19.9 +1.7%
• Total Put/Call .91 -4.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 +98.3%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• What-If DC War Game Maps Huge Toll of a Future US-China War Over Taiwan.    
• US Lawmakers Visit Taiwan After Pelosi Trip Infuriates China.
• China Factory Orders Shrink in Ominous Sign for Global Outlook.
• China's Demographics Spell Decline Not Domination.  
• Beijing Asks New Delhi to Reiterate ‘One China’ Principle.
• South Korea to Slash National Budget for First Time in 13 Years.  
• Secret to Enduring Stagflation Sends Traders to Emerging Markets.
• UK Inflation Shock Is Within Whisker of Double Digits.  
• UK Property Asking Prices Fall the Most in More Than Two Years.  
• Germany Heads for Engineering Pay Showdown Due to Energy Crisis.
  
• World Embraces Dirtier Fuels as Gas Hits Exorbitant Heights.
• World’s Oldest Glass Maker Riedel Braces for Shutdowns as Gas Crisis Deepens.
  
• Asia Analysts Predict Biggest Profit Drop Since Pandemic Started.
  
• White House Nears Road Map on Taiwan Trade Amid China Discord.
• How the US Toppled the World’s Most Powerful Gold Trader.  
• Fed Minutes May Reveal Inclinations on Size of Next Rate Hike.  
• Police: Man Killed Himself After Ramming US Capitol Barrier.
• Your Sunday Briefing: From Retail Angst to Apple’s Ad Push.  
• Aramco Profit Surges to Another Record on Bumper Oil Market.
• Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Warns of ‘Head Fake’ in Inflation Data.  
• Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated.

Wall Street Journal: 

• The Middle Class Won’t Escape the New IRS Audit Wave. A CBO analysis belies a White House claim about new funding for federal tax collectors.
• Britain’s Net Zero Lesson for the U.S. Soaring energy prices may send a third of the U.K. into poverty.
• Market Rebound Has Some Investors Unconvinced.
• The Outlook: Labor Shortage Is Challenge for U.S. Economy.
• Faster Internet Is Coming to America—as Soon as the Government Knows Where to Build It.
• Wall Street Bets on Both Green Energy and Fossil Fuels.
• Aramco Reports Record Profit, Enriching Saudi Kingdom.
• Your Next Fish and Chips at the Pub Could Cost 40% More.
• Public Pension Systems Join Those Stung by Crypto Crash.
• Men’s Body-Image Issues Got Worse During Pandemic—Even if Many Didn’t Realize It.
• California Efforts to Reduce Jail Population During Covid End Amid Rising Crime.
• As Celebrity Backlash Grows, So Does Overall Private Jet Use.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (LLY), (FCX), (BE), (PLUG), (RUN) and (AEO).
• Had bearish commentary on (BBBY), (PRTY) and (RAD).

Fox News:

• US lawmakers make unannounced trip to Taiwan days after Speaker Pelosi's visit enraged China.
• Mexican authorities take drastic action after cartel threatens killing spree.
  
• FBI warns of 'dirty bomb' threat, increasing calls for violence as Mar-a-Lago raid fallout mounts.
• Harmeet Dhillon: Trump raid deeply troubling for those who care about civil liberties.

CNBC:

• The Motor City is moving south as EVs change the automotive industry.
  
• Wall Street’s top analysts say these are their top picks right now.
• The other reason why food prices are rising.
• Why ‘box fatigue’ may be hitting the apparel industry and what it means for Stitch Fix and others.
• Why the U.S. is struggling to modernize the electric grid.

Zero Hedge:

• Thomas Piketty Wants To Bring Back Communism In The Guise Of Democratic Socialism.
• Heating Your Home Will Hurt This Winter As Natural Gas Prices Climb.
• The State Of Unemployment In Europe.
• Why Solar Power Is Failing Amid Record-Breaking Heat.
• Former FBI Assistant Director Says 'Handful In Leadership' Are Politicizing Bureau, Following Mar-a-Lago Raid.
• It's Game-Over For The Fed - Expect A Monetary "Rug Pull" Soon...
• Time To Take A Stand.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Hedge Fund CIO: Here's Why Trading Often Destroys People, Devouring Them From Within.
• Ray Epps Told FBI He Expected Bomb Attack Near The Capitol On January 6, Documents Show.
• "You Are Next": JK Rowling Receives Death Threat In Wake Of Salman Rushdie Attack.
• "Supply, Commodity, And Dollar Shocks": Morgan Stanley Sees Gathering Storm Clouds Of A Global Recession.
• Former FBI Agent Says Mar-a-Lago Raid Was Government’s Attempt To 'Embarrass' Trump.
• Shorts carried out on stretchers as FOMO kicks in.
• High Prices, Range Anxiety Holding Back EV Adoption.
• Where Americans Plan To Cut Back In Face Of Inflation.
• Housing Affordability Index Drops To Lowest Rate Since 1989, Still Way Too High.
• Taiwanese Officials Trounce Pelosi After Son's Huge Holdings In China Tech Exposed. 
• Heating Your Home Will Hurt This Winter As Natural Gas Prices Climb.
• Why Solar Power Is Failing Amid Record-Breaking Heat.
• Brandon Smith: Artificial Intelligence - A Secular Look At The Digital Antichrist.
• Special Ops Veteran Cancels Plans For Sunday Protest At FBI Headquarters After 'Trap' Warnings.
• Washington, DC Mayor Asks US Military For 90 Days Of Help With Illegal Immigrants.
• Potato Shortage Emerges In Idaho As Prices Surge At Supermarkets.
• Wokepox: The WHO Is Asking For The Public's Help In Re-Naming Monkeypox.
• Why Labor Productivity Has Collapsed.
• Ken Griffin Deploys More Than $1 Billion On Florida Real Estate After Leaving Chicago.
• Long Term Returns Are Unsustainable.
• "Tijuana Under Attack!": Sudden Eruption Of Cartel Violence Leaves Cars Burned Across Border City.
• Small Businesses' Big Message For The Markets.
• Salman Rushdie's Attacker Is A New Jersey Man With Shia Extremist & Iranian Sympathies.
• A Giant Stride Toward Socialism.
• FBI Sends 'Clear Message' To Trump, His Supporters: The Swamp Is Real, Rep. Davidson Says.
• College Endowments Suffer Their Worst Performance In Since The Financial Crisis.
• Africa Needs Conventional Fuels, Not Windmills And Solar Panels.

MarketWatch.com:             

• Grocery prices in July had largest price increase since 1979 — with one food staple rising by 38% on the year.
• Author Salman Rushdie on ventilator after New York stabbing.
• A dozen eggs cost 38% more than a year ago — due to avian flu, the war in Ukraine, a rise in farming costs, and more.
• Sinema took Wall Street money while killing tax on investors.
  
• This 20% Nasdaq gain doesn’t mean we’re in a new bull market.  
• Walmart earnings: Can groceries, back-to-school sales help avert another profit warning?

NewsMax:  

• Ben Carson: CDC, NIH Reputation Damages 'Incalculable'.
• Rep. Mullin: 'Inflation Act' Leaves US Dependent on China.
• Rep. Van Drew: Biden Spending Bill Means ‘Pay More, Get Less’.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Liz Cheney’s Husband’s Law Firm Not Only Represents Companies Linked to China’s Military, the Firm with Close Ties to Democrats Represents Hunter Biden Too. 
• In Less Than 3 Weeks States Can Begin Destroying Their 2020 Election Evidence – It’s Time to Petition that These Records Be Kept.
• CDC Quietly Removes Statement that Says “mRNA and the Spike Protein Do Not Last Long in the Body” from Their Website.
• ABC’s Jon Karl Confronts Karine Jean-Pierre on Bidenflation Scam Bill: “Isn’t It Almost Orwellian? How Can You Call it the Inflation Reduction Act…?” (VIDEO). 
• Energy Sec. Granholm When Asked What Bidenflation Bill will Do to Help Americans: Installing an EV Charging Station in Your Home will Get You a Tax Credit (VIDEO).
• Brother of Marine Killed in Afghanistan Due to Biden’s Botched Withdrawal Commits Suicide at Memorial For Fallen Soldier.
• High Prices Pushing Californians to Shop for Necessities in Mexico: ‘You Gotta Take Care of Yourself’.
• WAYNE ROOT: Here are the Issues That Will Destroy Democrats in the Midterms. Unless GOP is Blind, Deaf, Dumb, or Complicit.
• Boston Children’s Hospital Creates Bizarre Video Promoting ‘Gender Affirming’ Hysterectomies for Kids.
• SPERRY: FBI Agents Involved in Trump Raid are Under Criminal Investigation by Durham For Abusing Their Power in Trump-Russia Probe.
• One Dead, 17 injured After Man Drives Through Crowd at Pennsylvania Fundraiser Then Murders Woman in Neighboring Community.
• FBI Seized Records Protected By Attorney-Client Privilege During Trump Raid, DOJ Refuses Trump Request for Special Master to Review.
• Movie on the 2020 Election is DEVASTATING – Release Date Is August 20 (Trailer Attached).
• CBS Mornings Blames Climate Change for the Increasing Number of Fat Kids (VIDEO).
• Muslim Extremist Who Stabbed Author Salman Rushdie 15 Times Pleads Not Guilty (VIDEO).
• Young Ukrainian with Criminal Record Who Killed Seven Biker Vets on Way to Charity Event in 2019 Found Not Guilty on All Charges.
• Kamala Harris Giggles About Mar-a-Lago Raid Then Complains About Attacks on Law Enforcement After She Promoted Paying Bail for BLM Police Haters.
• Alec Baldwin DID Pull the Trigger on the Set of ‘Rust’ Which Took Halyna Hutchins’ Life, According to FBI Analysis.

The Epoch Times:

• Hong Kong’s Q2 GDP Shrinks 1.3 Percent; Government Cuts 2022 Forecast.
• ‘They Can Do Audio, Video, Physical Surveillance on You 24H/365D a Year’: Rex Lee on Intrusive Apps.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 851,369 Reports(+2,712 from prior week) Through August 5th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.5 -3.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 71.75 -2.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.77 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,845.0 +36.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.72 +.32%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.24%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (WEBR)/-.04
  

After the Close:

• (FN)/1.54
• (WWE)/.55
• (ZIP)/.21
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Aug. is estimated to fall to 5.0 versus 11.1 in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Aug. is estimated at 55.0 versus 55.0 in July.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Wholesale Price report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• China Crisis Wipes Out Ukraine Cut to Default by S&P After Creditors OK Debt-Payment Delay $90 Billion of Developer Market Value.
• China Hits ‘Liquidity Trap’ as Low Rates Fail to Spur Bank Loans.  
• When Will the World Shift to Rate Cuts? More Investors Say 2024 or Later.  
• Forget Inflation. Shrinkflation Is Sparking Fury in Germany.
  
• Turkey Downgraded by Moody’s Amid Balance-of-Payments Risk.
• Trudeau Trade Chief Vows to Keep Pushing US on Global Tax Deal.
• Back-From-Dead Stocks Show Near-Limitless Tolerance for Trouble.
• Michael Burry Says ‘Addictive’ Consumer Spending Heralds Trouble.
• Harris Hears from Space Firms in Push to Revamp Industry Rules.  
• House Sends Biden Landmark Tax, Climate, Health Bill to Sign.  
• Rushdie on ‘Ventilator and Could Lose An Eye’ After New York Attack.  
• What the Great Mayonnaise Inflation Mystery Can Tell Us About Prices.  
• Small Caps Break Through Key Level as Some Doubt Staying Power.  
• Warren Renews Push for SEC to Crack Down on Insider Stock Sales.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Housing Affordability in June Was the Worst Since 1989.
• YouTube Advances Plans for Streaming Video Marketplace.
• Relaxed CDC Covid Guidelines Seen as Boost for Return to the Workplace.
• New Legislation Expands Role of Government in Private Markets.
• House Passes Democrats’ Climate, Health and Tax Package.
• The Payback for Mar-a-Lago Will Be Brutal. What went around Monday will come around hard for the Democrats when Republicans control the Justice Department and FBI.
• The IRS Won’t Just Be Taking More of Your Money. Call it the hassle tax—and get ready to spend more time on compliance.
• Mar-a-Lago Search Shows the Swamp’s Trump Obsession. An FBI raid against a former president should never happen. End of discussion. 
• Facebook Marketplace, DoorDash Team Up for Local Deliveries.
• Best Buy Cuts Store Jobs to Help Boost Profits.
• France Risks Winter Blackouts as Nuclear-Power Generation Stalls.

Fox News: 

• LIVE UPDATES:Search warrant details property FBI recovered from Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence.
• Greg Gutfeld: FBI's seizure of classified records from Mar-a-Lago sounds like every hoax we've heard before.
• SEE PICS:Hunter Biden vacations in ritzy area amid federal tax investigation.
• 'Squad' firebrand pocked $100k in rental income — as she pushed to cancel rent.

CNBC:

• Passage of Inflation Reduction Act gives Medicare new powers over drug prices.
• Cloud stocks are rallying after a punishing start to the year as 2022 outlook brightens.
• This was a good week for inflation numbers, but whether it can last is the big question.
• Peloton slashing 780 jobs, closing stores and hiking prices in push to turn profit.
• Fed’s Barkin says rate increases need to continue until inflation holds at 2%.
• Why the U.S. is struggling to modernize the electric grid.

Zero Hedge:

• Here's The Warrant: DOJ Investigating Trump For Potential Violations Of Espionage Act, Obstruction Of Justice.
• White House Warns Of Dangers As Congress Members Take Unauthorized Trips To Ukraine.
• The Frogs Will Boil Themselves.
• Texas Joins 18 States To Oppose Blackrock’s Woke Agenda.
• Salman Rushdie Alive, Undergoing Surgery, After Onstage Assassination Attempt.
• Apollo Readies Large Cap Direct Loan Fund.
• Pension Funds Suffer Worst Year Since 2009.
• CDC Admits It Gave False Information About COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance.
• House Democrats Pass Inflation Reduction Act, Sending It To Biden's Desk.
• Popeyes Appears To Be Calling It Quits In China.
• Mister Market Handing Out Roses Will Eventually Change His Mind.
• Rent Is Becoming A Crisis In The U.S.
• Five Lingering Questions In The Wake Of The Mar-a-Lago Raid.
• NYC Warns "Polio Circulating" City After Virus Found In Sewage.
• Grocery Inflation Hits Highest Level In 43 Years Despite Biden’s 'Zero' Inflation Messaging.
• "Sea Of Green": Bears Crushed As Stocks Storm Above 50% Fib Retracement.
• Michigan survey boosts risk to confirm fourth weekly gain for SPX - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.

MarketWatch.com:      

• Have stocks bottomed? Not until this ‘gorilla’ in equity markets budges, warns BofA.
  
• Stock-market euphoria meets bond-market pessimism as ‘strange week’ comes to end.

NewsMax:

• Trump: FBI Playing Politics, Didn't Need to 'Seize' Anything.
• Rep. Donalds: Mar-a-Lago Raid Will Ultimately Backfire on Biden, Dems in Midterms.  
• Rep. Clyde: 'More Militaristic' IRS Imperils Conservatives.
• Wash. Candidate Kent: Impeach Merrick Garland. 
  
• Rep. Burgess: Solve Inflation by Restoring Energy.
• Rep. Meuser: Inflation Bill 'Throws Fuel to Fire'.
• Antonio Sabato Jr.: If FBI Can Raid Trump, 'It Can Happen to Anybody'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• To Save the Union America Needs Free and Fair Elections – As a First Step, Only Legally Certified Voting Systems and Machines Should Be Used.
• “It Was All Declassified” – President Trump Responds to Latest Deep State FBI Leak.
• China-Controlled TikTok Accused of Using Child Porn for ‘Training’: Trafficking Survivor Speaks Out.
• IRS Annual Report Shows Training of Heavily Armed Agents Raiding Suburban Homes (PHOTOS).
• ABC News Chief Investigative Reporter: Americans Who Are Angry Over Trump Raid Are ‘Neo-Nazis’ Because Merrick Garland Is Jewish.
• Just Doing Her Job… Female FBI Agent Slept with Target Barry Croft in Hotel, in Same Bed, During Training Weekend Paid for by FBI and Smoked Pot with Him in FBI-Hatched Whitmer Kidnapping Hoax.
• 18-Year-Old Kentucky High School Athlete Dies Unexpectedly Due to Cardiac Arrest After Helping Flash Flood Victims.
• 43-Year-Old Medical Doctor, Author and Editor Dies Suddenly After Seizure.
• Biden Spox: We Have to Pass the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ to See How it Works (VIDEO).
• MUST WATCH: Official Public Release of Matador Films “Uninformed Consent” Documentary — An In-Depth Look Into the Covid 19 Narrative.
• “People are Uniting and Saying We See what the Real Game Is – It’s the Weaponized Government Against Its Own People” – Liz Harrington Goes Off on The War Room: (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Taiwan Would Undergo ‘Re-Education’ If Beijing Were to Take Over: Chinese Ambassador.
• Corruption Is Destroying Communist China’s Dream of Dominating Chip Industry.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 851,369 Reports(+3,278 from prior week) Through July 29th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).