Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.6% 2) Homebuilding +2.6% 3) Gambling +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PTON, ENVX, SAVA, RETA, HPK, SST, SMR, TMDX, AKRO, ILMN, LZB, INTU, CRBU, INSM, DY and TOL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GIS 2) CAL 3) INTU 4) JWN 5) TOL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INTU 2) TDCX 3) PTON 4) MRIN 5) BBBY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 62.9% of Issues Advancing, 33.9% Declining
• 15 New 52-Week Highs, 47 New Lows
• 31.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 43.2 +3.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,840.25 +.07%
  
• Vix 23.4 -3.0%
• Total Put/Call .85 -13.3%
• TRIN/Arms .85 +6.3%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.75 -2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 74.0 -5.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.70 -.11%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 42.17 +.60%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.41 -1.0 basis point
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.4 +.28%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (EAT)/1.17
• (DY)/.98
• (WOOF)/.22
  

After the Close:

• (ADSK)/1.57
• (BOX)/.28
• (GES)/.41
• (NTAP)/1.10
• (NVDA)/.50
• (CRM)/1.03
• (SNOW)/-.01
• (SPLK)/-.35
• (VSCO)/.95
• (WSM)/3.49
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for July is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +2.0% gain in June.
• Durables Ex Transports for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in June.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for July is estimated to fall -2.8% versus a -8.6% decline in June.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,188,600 barrels versus a -7,056,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,416,400 barrels versus a -4,642,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +747,400 barrels versus a 766,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.15% versus a -.8% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• (TSLA) 3-for-1
• (NDAQ) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 5Y T-Note auction, Japan Foreign Investment report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (RAD) shareholder webcast could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Technical Selling, Healthcare/REIT Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.9 +.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .84% -50.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 42.0 +.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.29 -.30%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -.25%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.4 -.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -11.5%

• NYSE Arms .76 +5.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.36 +.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 407.77 +.57%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 341.0 +4.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 119.26 +1.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 233.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.74 -.48%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 322.94 -4.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.80 +.49%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,588.9 n/a
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 37.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 24.75 basis points -6.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  138.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.99 +.1%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .93 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.74 +.25%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.70% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -26.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.05 USD/Metric Tonne +4.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 260.0 euros/megawatt-hour -6.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.6 -11.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.8 +4.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.5 -1.0 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.85 +.17:  Growth Rate +15.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.4 -.1 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +1.62% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.40 -8.0 basis points
  

• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +7.0 basis points: 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 +2.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 49.8%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 47.1%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 196 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.3%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -74.3%(+2.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +18 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +69 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -42 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my medical/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -1.9% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.3% 3) Pharma -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GO, RNG, AXNX, TWTR, NUVA, PTON and ZM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VTI 2) EWC 3) ATUS 4) APRN 5) TOL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZM 2) TWTR 3) XPEV 4) CVNA 5) BBBY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.8% 2) Steel +4.2% 3) Energy +3.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AERI, DENN, PANW, IPI, CELH, OXY, PAGP, WOLF, TMDX, M, CE, VNOM, SJM and CPRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) REI 2) CLAR 3) AVYA 4) DBA 5) WOW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AERI 2) PANW 3) NRDY 4) MRIN 5) DENN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume