Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Economic Hard-Landing Worries, Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Commodity/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.1 +9.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 43.86 -4.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.31 -.65%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.8 +2.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.5 +1.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 64.0 -26.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.35 +19.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +104.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 106.28 +4.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 408.09 +3.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 380.0 +8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 142.25 +3.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 232.0 basis points +12.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 162.40 +5.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 317.41 +7.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.32 -1.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 40.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 45.25 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 basis points -2.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  163.0 +8.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 46.04 -.45%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .62 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47. -.81%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.19% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -51.0 basis points (2s/10s) -8.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.15 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 186.0 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.9 +5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.1 -3.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.3 +1.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.23 -.08:  Growth Rate +15.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 15.6 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.01 -26.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.31% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.68% unch.: CPI YoY +8.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 75.5%(+3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 71.5%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 112 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.4%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.6%(-0.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -800 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +19.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 9.0% of Issues Advancing, 88.2% Declining
• 5 New 52-Week Highs, 805 New Lows
• 16.8%(-20.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 27.0 -5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 44.7 -2.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,489.2 +.46%
  
• Vix 29.1 +6.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.37 +21.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.40 +97.3% 

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Citigroup Sets India as High Priority Market Amid China Risks.
• China May Find It Hard to Cool Lithium’s Rally This Time Around.
• Pakistan Leader Says ‘All Hell’ to Break Loose Without Debt Deal.
• It’s Every Nation for Itself as Dollar Batters Global Currencies.  
• Pfizer, US Revise Contract for Donated Vaccines as World Demand Plummets.
  
• UK Consumers Fear for Their Future as Living Standards Plummet.
  
• Asian Stocks Poised to Decline Amid Surging Yields: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Set for Fourth Weekly Loss With Rate Hikes Darkening Outlook.
• Housing Paralysis Engulfs US Buyers With Prices Starting to Fall.
  
• Fed’s New Normal for Pace of Tightening May Be Hard to Escape.  
• Opinion: On Second Thought, Maybe Housing Was in a Bubble After All.  
• US Mortgage Rates Jump to 6.29%, Highest Since October 2008.
• SEC Set to Let Wall Street Keep Payment-for-Order-Flow Deals.
• Zelle Emerges as Lawmakers’ Surprise Foe at Bank Hearings.  
• With NYC Shelters Overflowing, City Putting Up Tents for Migrants.  
• A Great Copper Squeeze Is Coming for the Global Economy.   
• Royal Caribbean Taps Junk-Bond Market For $2 Billion Refinancing.

Wall Street Journal:

• World’s Central Banks Race to Raise Rates After Fed Increase.
• Amazon Routinely Hired Dangerous Trucking Companies, With Deadly Consequences.
• Treasury Yields Surge as Central Banks Respond to Fed, Inflation.
• Rising Costs of Senior-Living Homes Strain Families.
• Every Tomboy Is Tagged ‘Transgender’. The terminological change behind the push to ‘treat’ sex-role nonconformity with surgery or hormones.
• Democrats ‘Charity’ Voter-Registration Scheme. A 501(c)(3) nonprofit isn’t supposed to engage in partisan activity. 
• After Years of Low Mortgage Rates, Home Sellers Are Scarce.
• Audits of Chinese Companies Start to Face U.S. Inspections.
• Covid-19 Unemployment Fraud May Have Topped $45 Billion, Watchdog Estimates.

Fox News: 

• FBI's history of scandals, controversies fuels Republican skepticism of agency after Trump raid.
• Mic catches South Korean president's profane reaction to Biden speech.
• AP report on guy admitting to mowing down 'Republican' teen omits key detail.

CNBC.com:

• FedEx hikes package rates, details cost cutting as demand weakens globally.
• Bed Bath & Beyond’s merchandise problems will make it hard to pull off a turnaround
• Apple issues iPhone update to fix shaking camera, hard reset bugs.
• Palantir CEO Alex Karp says this tidal wave of macroeconomic risks will wipe out some companies.
• Bitcoin dips below $19,000, and Kraken’s new CEO David Ripley on company culture: CNBC Crypto World.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Costco, DocuSign, Scholastic.
  

MarketWatch:         

• Opinion: The S&P 500 is oversold, but dangerous.
  
• Videogame sales heading for decline in U.S., but one analyst sees a 2023 rebound.
  
• Companies should ‘leave politics to the politicians’: Ramaswamy slams ESG investing.  
• ‘The housing market may have to go through a correction’: Mortgage rates hit 6.29%, Freddie Mac says.

Zero Hedge:

• Pennsylvania County Sues Dominion Voting Systems Over 'Severe Anomalies' In 2020 Election.
• Latino Vote To Determine Outcome In Dozens Of 2022 Midterm Races.
• 24 Attorneys General Demand Credit Card Companies Drop Plans To Track Gun Sales.
• The Mobilization Begins - Scenes Around Russia: "What Are We Going For?".
• US stocks declined and bonds sold off after a plethora of central bank rate hikes and Japan's FX intervention - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Are you scared?
• Is The Fed's Heavy Lifting Almost Over?
• Powell Contradicts Biden On Inflation: "Running Too High" Rather Than "Hardly At All".
• US Sanctions Iran's Morality Police Amid Spiraling Protests.
• Where Have All The Ships Gone? Signs Of A Recession.
• Yen surges and USTs tumble on historic intervention - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Global Hawknado Hammers Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar.

Newsmax:  

• Rep. Bentz: Cartels 'Making Billions' From Lax Border.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• ‘COPS’ Returning to Television After Being Cancelled During Black Lives Matter Riots Over George Floyd.
• FOIA Requests Reveal There Were No DOJ Investigations on Election Fraud After 2020 Election as Bill Barr Claims (VIDEO).
• WATCH: Creepy Bill Gates Just Posted Another Bizarre Video — This Time He’s Promoting Genetically Modified Corn To Save Us From A Famine During The Planned ‘Climate Crisis’.
• Kamala Harris Says Laws Banning Ballot Drop Boxes Are “Un-Democratic” and “Un-American” (VIDEO).
• Zuckerberg And Wife Hit With Legal Complaint Over Use Of Charitable Organizations To Influence 2020 Election.
• Not Good: Gas Prices Are On The Rise Again – Despite Joe Biden Depleting US Oil Reserves.
• #BoycottPayPal Trends on Twitter After it Shut Down Numerous Advocacy Group Accounts Including Gays Against Groomers, UK Medical Freedom, Free Speech Union, and others – Gateway Pundit was Banned Last Year.
• What’s Going On? Ohio BP Explosion Kills Two, Fourth Gas Plant Explosion Since June.
• “The Biggest Waste of Money I Have Ever Spent in my Entire Life… I Own Very Little Power” – Customers are Furious About Solar Panels’ Poor Performance.
  

The Epoch Times: 

• 162 Researchers From Top US Nuclear Facility Now Working for China: Report.
• Students Protest Power Outage at College in China’s Wuhan, Discontent Grows Over COVID Lockdown.
• Trump’s 2020 Campaign Wasn’t Tough Enough on Communist China, Former Top Aid Navarro Says.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 865,585 Reports(+1,922 from prior week) Through September 7th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 157.25 +5.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 96.75 +5.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.03 +.05%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 45.8 -.1%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.83 -7.0 basis points
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.8 -.91%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.49%.

• S&P 500 futures +.23%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The S&P US Manufacturing PMI for Sept. is estimated to fall to 51.0 versus 51.5 in Aug.
• The S&P US Services PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 45.5 versus 43.7 in Aug.
• The S&P US Composite PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 46.1 versus 44.6 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed Listens Event and the Eurozone PMI report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.8 -.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .77%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 45.7 +2.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.27 -12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.4 -.75% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 -3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.14 +9.6%

• NYSE Arms .63 -74.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 102.05 +1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 395.72 +.16%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 372.0 +24.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 137.39 +2.72%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 220.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 154.1 +5.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 295.06 +2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.64 -.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 41.75 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 39.25 basis points +12.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  155.0 +8.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 46.27 -.64%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .63 -5.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.0 +.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.22% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -42.25 basis points (2s/10s) +9.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.60 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 188.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.9 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.0 -2.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .2 -.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.31 -.32:  Growth Rate +16.0% -.4 percentage point, P/E 15.9 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.79 -10.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.31% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.68% unch.: CPI YoY +8.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 67.0%(+0.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 66.0%(+13.2 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 112 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.4%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.6%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -414 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +24 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -5.3% 2) Alt Energy -4.0% 3) Airlines -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DSGN, CWAN, DRI, RVT, SLRC, RVNC, CC, CTLT, PFLT, BX, MFA, MCO, SEM, AXON, AAL, WOOF, KBH, LYV, MPWR, CMG, NVDA, AGR, YETI, MAT, AR, PSTG, OMF, TALO, FNF, ALLO, PLNT, ORC, BYND, SQ, SGRY, CLDT, FDS, STEM, HTZ, PENN, CZR, WOLF, PRVA, SWAV, ENVX, VSAT and NVAX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VGK 2) IGT 3) AXP 4) EWT 5) XLK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NVAX 2) AMC 3) CVNA 4) TSP 5) ENOB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume