Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 29.9% of Issues Advancing, 66.2% Declining
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 52 New Lows
• 24.5%(+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.2 -1.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,069.80 -.51%
  
• Vix 32.9 +2.9%
• Total Put/Call .86 -2.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.85 +270.0% 

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• China Seen Halting Cash Drainage as Party Congress Kicks Off.  
• A Trader’s Guide to China’s Must-Watch Communist Party Congress.
  
• Japan Keeps Up Warnings, Declines to Say if Intervened in Yen.
• Singapore Tightens Monetary Policy Again Amid Inflation Concerns.
  
• Asia Stocks Set to Join Wild Ride Higher After CPI: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Heads for Weekly Loss as Hot Inflation Threatens Fed Action.
• Core US Inflation Rises to 40-Year High, Securing Big Fed Hike. 
• ‘Soft Landing’ Is Unlikely for US Economy, JPMorgan’s Dimon Says.  
• Here’s Where Inflation Is Biting American Consumers the Most.
• Private Bets Shield World’s Largest Investors from Market Mayhem.  
• Seven Senate Races Will Make or Break Biden’s Agenda.  
• Beyond Meat Cuts More Jobs as Plant-Based Meat Demand Cools.  
• Kroger Wants to Merge With Albertsons to Create US Grocery Giant.  
• United Airlines Nears ‘Triple-Digit’ Order for Widebody Jets.  
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden Scapegoats the Saudis for an Energy Crisis He Created. There’s an easy way for America to prevent another shock in world markets: Produce more oil.
• U.S. Core Inflation Hit New Four-Decade High Last Month.
• Inflation Expands Beyond Supply-Chain Struggles to Service Sector.
• Inflation and the Midterm Elections. The main legacy of the 117th Congress is a decline in living standards.
• The Regulators of Facebook, Google and Amazon Also Invest in the Companies’ Stocks.

Fox News:

• ACLU slaps Biden with lawsuit claiming he's endangering illegal immigrants.
• White House chief of staff boasts about inflation aftermath.

CNBC.com:

• U.S. extends Covid public health emergency even though Biden says pandemic is over.
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for September 2022 — in one chart.
• Over three-quarters of adults are making lifestyle changes to prepare for a potential recession. 
  

MarketWatch:         

• Mortgage rates surge to the highest level in 20 years. ‘The next several months will undoubtedly be important for the economy and the housing market.’.
  
• Fed’s benchmark interest rate may peak above 5% after Sept inflation data, some economists think.
  
• ‘Soft landing’ unlikely as Fed tries to get grip on inflation, says former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.
  
• Hot U.S. inflation is boosting market expectations for a 5% or higher fed-funds rate in a matter of months.

Zero Hedge:

• Chevron CEO Blames Western Governments "Doubling-Down" On 'Climate' Policies For Global Energy Crisis.
• "This Is A F**king War": Jamie Dimon Slams Biden Begging Saudis For Oil, Says Investors "Don't Give A Shit" About ESG.
• Sorry Nobel Committee, Ben Bernanke's Interventions Were The Crisis.
• No Data To Recommend 'Preferential' Omicron Booster Jabs: WHO Panel.
• Twitter Lawyers Say Musk Under Federal Investigation Over Deal.
• "Severe Adverse Effects": Doctors Warn Pfizer's Paxlovid Can Interact With Common Medications.
• US stocks staged a strong comeback from the initial CPI-triggered pressure - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "A Total Bust" - Trump Slams Jan. 6 "Unselect" Committee After Unanimous Vote To Subpoena Former President.
• 'A Dumpster Fire On Top Of A Hurricane': LA In Chaos As Racism, Corruption Scandals Mount.
• Gaslighting On Gas Prices.
• AOC Humiliated At Town Hall In Viral Clip: 'Why Can't You Be More Like Tulsi Gabbard?'
• What happened today?
• Stocks and Dollar whipsaw after hot CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap:.
• Soaring CPI & Extreme Pre-Positioning Sparks Massive Swings Across Markets.

Newsmax:     

• RNC's McDaniel: GOP Eyes Action on Google's Email Blocking.
• Chicago Alderman: 'Too Much Coddling of Criminals'.
• AG Jeff Landry: Admin Acts Like 'Communist Regime'.
• Mark Morgan: Mayorkas Should Resign or Be Impeached.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• It’s Not Just the mRNA Vaccines, New Study Shows Pfizer’s Paxlovid Pill Can Cause Deadly Blood Clots.
• The Curious Case Of the US Dept. of Defense Contract Signed During Obama Presidency, Konnech and Overseas Voters. 
• PayPal’s Effort To “Fine” People For Misinformation Was So Bad Even A Dem-Headed Government Agency Is Investigating.
• BREAKING: Social Security Announces Biggest Cost-Of-Living-Adjustment In 40 Years.
• Here We Go… Researchers Now Say Video Games Can Cause Heart Attacks in Children if They Get Too Excited.
• PayPal is Reportedly Bribing Users $15 in a Desperate Move to Stop Them from Closing their Accounts.
• “What This Signifies Is They’re Coming After Everyone Else Steve- I’m Just the First Domino to Fall” – Alex Jones Reacts to $965 Million Judgment in First Call with Steve Bannon (VIDEO).
• Is the U.S. Real Estate Industry Infiltrated and Being Used to Facilitate Chinese Espionage?
  

The Epoch Times:

• Rare Protest Against Xi Appears in Beijing Days Before CCP’s Congress.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 877,727 Reports(+5,890 from prior week) Through September 30th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 203.0 +4.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 112.25 +2.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.40 -.02%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.67 +2.0%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.21 +4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.9 -.45%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.95%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (C)/1.45
• (JPM)/2.86
• (MS)/1.51
• (PNC)/3.70
• (USB)/1.16
• (UNH)/5.44
• (WFC)/1.09
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.3% decline in Aug.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.1% versus a -1.0% decline in Aug.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petrol MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.2% decline in Aug.
• The Import Price Index YoY for Sept. is estimated to rise +6.3% versus a +7.8% gain in Aug.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a -1.6% decline in Aug.
• The Export Price Index YoY for Sept. is estimated to rise +9.4% versus a +10.8% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Aug. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.6% gain in Sept.
• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Oct. is estimated to rise to 58.8 versus 58.6 in Sept.
• Univ. of Mich. 1-Year Inflation Expectation Index for Aug. is estimated to rise +4.6% versus an expectation of a +4.7% increase in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Data report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Sharply Higher into Afternoon on Peak Inflation Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 32.1 -4.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 4.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.6 -1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.5 +1.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.9 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -24.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -15.8%

• NYSE Arms .56 -27.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 101.02 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 424.99 -.67%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 408.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 143.69 -2.9% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 450.5 +.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 239.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 205.17 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 325.67 +.49%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.19 -.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 28.75 basis points -2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -70.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  176.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 45.58 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .82 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.46 +.37%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.67% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -49.5 basis points (2s/10s) -10.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 153.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.40 +8.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.0 +.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.2 -.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.33 -.24:  Growth Rate +15.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 15.6 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.19 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.89% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.11% unch.: CPI YoY +8.20% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 62.3%(+29.8 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 53.5%(+23.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.8%(-.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +508 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts, then added some back
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -.7% 2) Video Gaming -.4% 3) Social Media -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MTCH, PCRX, AFRM, RXDX, RVNC, SPWR, HASI, BRZE, W, MDGL, S and ETSY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RLMD 2) ACWI 3) VOO 4) FAST 5) KRE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LTRY 2) ETSY 3) GEF 4) MNSO 5) BCC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +2.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +4.9% 2) Oil Service +3.9% 3) Energy +3.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DWAC, DCT, ACI, DPZ, AXSM, VRE, BROS, AEHR, BIIB, MC, DICE, XHR, WBA, ONTO, DAL, KRNY, HQY, AMAT, BLK, LRCX and FAST
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RLMD 2) ACI 3) ACWI 4) MMAT 5) IMUX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INMD 2) SVC 3) DWAC 4) ACI 5) BIIB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 59.3% of Issues Advancing, 37.3% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 856 New Lows
• 19.0%(-7.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.0 -2.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,124.94 -.68%
  
• Vix 32.2 -4.1%
• Total Put/Call .83 -17.8%
• TRIN/Arms .66 -14.3%