Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Russia Suspends Ukraine Grain Export Deal; Biden Slams Move.
• Brazil Presidential Contenders in Final Push Before Sunday Vote.  
• Crisis Trauma Haunts Korea as It Confronts a Credit Meltdown.  
• The Lithium Market Is Hotter Than Ever and Traders Are Moving In.
• Strong Dollar Seen Hurting US Outlook and Even Tilting Fed Path.
• Bad S&P 500 Earnings Are Playing Right Into the Fed’s Hands.
  
• Fed and BOE Prepare 75 Basis-Point Salvos on Inflation: Eco Week.  
• Treasury Market Rally Faces Reality Check as Powell Sets Path.  
• Unilever’s Health Data Shows Junk-Food Metrics Are Up for Debate.  
• ‘Lipstick Effect’ Starts Fading for Consumer Beauty Groups.  
• ‘It Ruined Everything’: Buy Now, Pay Later Drives Gen Z Into Debt.
• Your Saturday Briefing: Terrible Times in Tech.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia Moves to Pull Out of Grain Deal After Blasts Hit Crimean Port.
• Affirmative Action Mocks Ethnic Diversity. As the Supreme Court takes up preferences at Harvard, legal scholar David Bernstein argues that labels like ‘Hispanic’ and ‘Asian’ are completely arbitrary.
• Impeaching Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner. Crime has surged under the progressive prosecutor, who won’t change his soft-on-criminal policies.
• China Is About to Fall Into the Middle-Income Trap. By turning away from free enterprise, Xi Jinping ensures that the country’s economy will stop growing.
• An American Built a Business Inside China. Clients Want Him to Leave.
• Economic Pressures Weigh on Voters as Election Nears.
• Catalytic Converter Theft Surges Across U.S.
• U.S. Pensions Take a Fresh Look at China.
• Farm Groups Rally Against SEC Proposal to Report Climate Data.
• With Energy Crisis Looming, U.K. Weather Agency Is Set to Say How Cold Winter Could Get.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (V), (META), (PTEN), (KAR), (AIR), (VBTX) and (AEIS).

Fox News:

• Left-wing activists steal young conservative's Bible and tear it up — then things take a bizarre turn.
• Katie Hobbs ad calls out 3 'Republicans' who have donated thousands to Dems.

CNBC:

• Twitter is now owned by Elon Musk — here’s a brief history its founding in 2006 to the present.
• Big Tech falters on dreary earnings and forecasts — Meta has worst week ever, Amazon tumbles 13%.

Zero Hedge: 

• Percentage Of Americans Who Say Local Crime Is Up Hits 50-Year-High.
• Norway's Top Energy Exec Warns EU's Supply Crunch Won't Be Solved With Price Caps.
• A Disordered World – Part 2: Susceptibilities.
• Russia Accuses British Navy Of Nord Stream "Terrorist Attack". 
• Russia Suspends Participation In Ukraine Grain Deal After "Massive" Drone Attack On Black Sea Fleet.
• "Chief Twit" Musk Reportedly Orders Job Cuts Across Twitter.
• Arizona GOP Governor Frontrunner Kari Lake Accuses Legacy Media Of Spreading 'Fake News' Of Burglary.
• "Scariest Halloween Of My Life": 146 Dead In South Korea After Crowd Crushing Incident.
• Twin Bombings In Somali Capital Leave "Scores Of Casualties" .
• Top US Banks Under Investigation Over ESG And Climate Action. 
• Facebook Fined $25M By Washington State For Violating Election Law. 
• Shellenberger: Pelosi Attack Suspect Was Psychotic Homeless Addict Estranged From His Nudist Lover & Their Children.
• Florida Officials Looking Into Allegations Of Widespread Ballot Harvesting Operation In Black Neighborhoods.
• Ukrainian Refugees Return Home Despite Warnings Not To.
• East Coast Retail Diesel Prices Moving Significantly Higher Than Overall US Hikes.
• Locked-Down Foxconn Employees In "iPhone City" Scuffle Over Food Rations After Covid Outbreak.
• 'Zero Emissions' From Electric Vehicles? Here's Why That Claim Has Zero Basis.
• May the upside force be with you.
• The War Over 'Transgender' Kids: A Pre-Election Battlefield Update.
• Are Polarized Politics Pushing More People Independent?
• Pentagon: US To Scrap Sea-Launched Nuclear Missile Program.
• Leaked FBI Pamphlet Lists 'Misinformation' And 'Disinformation' As 'Election Crimes'.
• Mail-In Ballot Total Surges Past 10 Million Across US Ahead Of 2022 Midterms: Research.
• A Closer Look At The COVID Mortality Rate.
• Lifelong Democrat Lawmaker To Vote Republican In NY Governor Race: 'Hochul Has No Clue'.
• Congressional Hispanic Caucus Blocks GOP Rep Mayra Flores' Request To Join.

MarketWatch.com:            

• ‘From Bambi to Godzilla.’ Strategist David Rosenberg skewers the Federal Reserve as he sees a 30% hit to home prices and the S&P 500 returning to an early 2020 low.
•  Democrats likely to lose more than 20 House seats in midterm elections, Cook Political Report editor says. 
• Republicans have over 70% chance of winning Senate in midterm elections, betting markets say.

NewsMax:     

• Dr. Birx: Knowing COVID Origins Helps Protect Americans.
• Obama, Campaigning in Georgia, Warns of Threats to Democracy.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Medical Boards Strip Top Dr. Peter McCullough’s Medical Credentials for Speaking the Truth About COVID Vaccine.
• An Analysis of the FIRST Police Conference Regarding the Paul Pelosi and David Depape Incident at the Pelosi Home (VIDEO).
• Did Mystery Third Person Open Door for Police at Pelosi House? If So, Who Was It?
• ‘We Can’t Keep You Safe’- Law Enforcement Officials Tell Fox News.
• Republican Lawmakers Introduce ‘Concerned Citizens Bill of Rights Act’ to Crack Down on Crime.
• Citizens for Sanity Runs Brutal Ads During Game One of the World Series Blasting Biden and Democrats. 
• Dem Congressional Staffer Caught Working On Behalf Of Chinese Embassy.
• Kari Lake Mockingly Thanks Liz Cheney for Not Endorsing Her.
• There Are Multiple Problems with the Paul Pelosi – David DePape Story – Nothing Adds Up.
• Rogue RINO Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer Violated Two Laws Using Public Funds To Campaign Against Arizonans For Voter ID Ballot Initiative.
• MUST SEE: Greg Kelly Goes There – Questions Narrative of Paul Pelosi Beating by Berkeley Man in His Underwear (VIDEO).
• Dr. Oz Leads John Fetterman In Two Polls Following Debate.
• BREAKING: Photos of Paul Pelosi Assailant David Depape at Nudist Wedding.
• Here’s UPDATED List of 21 Republican Governors Who Won’t Comply with CDC Mandates to Force COVID-19 Vaccination on Kids for School – Nebraska Governor Added to List.
• HUGE: COVID Vaccine Injury Payments EXPLODE in Australia – More than 80 Times Higher than Last Year.

The Epoch Times:

• As Xi Secures Third Term, CCP Will Continue to Subvert International Rules at West’s Expense: Experts.
• Shanghai District Orders Mass COVID-19 Testing, Lockdown.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 884,059 Reports(+3,177 from prior week) Through October 14th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Biden Trade Chief Says Next Phase of China Relationship Unclear.
• Bolsonaro and Lula Head to Final Clash Before Brazil Vote.  
• British Pound’s Plunge Sparks Retail-Trading Frenzy.
• Private Lender Cuts Canada Mortgage Business as Defaults Rise.
• Musk Is Forming a Council to Advise on Lifting Any Twitter Bans.
  
• Elon Musk Could End Twitter Bans on These Seven Accounts.  
• Pioneer CEO Sees Oil Price Rebounding to $120 Next Year.
• Oil Giants Face Backlash for Handing Record Profits to Investors.
• Gasoline Prices Are Rising in US Again as Big Oil Profits Soar.
• Fed Seen Aggressively Hiking to 5%, Triggering Global Recession.  
• New England Utility Urges Biden to Declare Emergency to Avoid Fuel Shortage.  
• Private Equity Firms Probed by US on Overlapping Board Seats.
  
• Big-Tech Stocks Lose $400 Billion — And They’re Still Expensive. 
• Battered Tech Stocks Are Hammering Your 401(k) Retirement Fund.

Wall Street Journal:

• Crime Could Elect a Republican in New York. Democrats are committed to an extreme ideology, so their politicians are reduced to doubletalk.
• Earnings Signal End to Tech Boom.
• The 20 Richest Tech Billionaires Have Lost Nearly Half a Trillion Dollars This Year.
• Flu Hospitalizations Hit 12-Year High for October.

CNBC:

• GM temporarily suspends advertising on Twitter following Elon Musk takeover.
• Big Tech falters on dreary earnings and forecasts — Meta has worst week ever, Amazon tumbles 13%.
• Chrysler and Jeep parent Stellantis offering buyouts to some U.S. salaried employees.
• Elon Musk plans Twitter content moderation council as questions about Trump return loom.

Zero Hedge: 

• The Key Issues For US Voters Right Now. 
• 'Zero Emissions' From Electric Vehicles? Here's Why That Claim Has Zero Basis.
• China Rebuffing US Requests To Resume Military Dialogue Until "Red Lines" Respected.
• Showdown Coming Over Race-Based Admissions As Supreme Court Prepares To Hear Arguments In Lawsuit.
• Russia Announces End Of Mobilization After Enlisting 300K New Troops.
• Democrats Race To Save A Blue State Gone Purple.
• Soros Tops The List Of Midterm Election Mega-Donors.
• Victor Davis Hanson: The Switcheroo Of The Two Parties.
• US Unveils Another $275M In Arms To Ukraine Alongside 'Accountability' Plan.
• Greenwald: Meet The Consortium Imposing The Growing Censorship Regime.
• Stocks rocket into month-end while real yields tumble - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Dow Soars Towards Best Month In 84 Years Amid 'Eye-Wateringly Speculative YOLO-ing'.
• Dem Donors Abandon Florida As Former Swing State Gushes Red.
• As US-China Relations Worsen, Expect Supply Chain Chaos.
  

MarketWatch.com:          

• 2-year Treasury yield bounces off two-week low as data shows inflation continuing to run hot .
  
• Matt Damon’s ‘Fortune Favors the Brave’ commercial turns one. Here’s how much you would’ve lost if you bought crypto then.  
• Opinion: A $3 trillion loss: Big Tech’s horrible year is getting worse.

NewsMax:   

• Post-debate, Oz Surges to 3-Point Lead Over Fetterman.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• This is Weird? Pelosi Assailant David Depape Was In His Underwear When Police Arrived – Yanked the Hammer from Paul Pelosi.
• Dozens of Federal Grand Jury Subpoenas Issued in Criminal Probe Involving Democrat Senator Bob Menendez.
• Top House Republican Investigator Demands Answers From FBI About Very Real Security Threat of Hunter Biden’s Chinese Associate.
• UPDATE: State Rep. Frank Ryan (R-PA) Joins War Room to Discuss 255,000 Unverified PA Voters Receiving Ballots.
• WATCH: Ilhan Omar Melts Down At Town Hall When Crowd Called Her A ‘Warmonger’ Then Warns Anti-War Protesters Are ‘Dangerous Propagandists’.
• Never Forget: Obama Issued a “Pause” on Funding for Gain-of-Function, Asked for “Voluntary Pause” on Research…
• DEVELOPING: Paul Pelosi Attacker Identified – David Depape from Berkeley, CA.
• 90 Day Freeze on Cleaning Voter Rolls Allows Voter Fraud and Needs to Be Challenged at the Supreme Court.
• EXCLUSIVE: Tuesday’s Georgia Supreme Court Ruling Will Likely Lead to Audit of 147,000 Suspected Fraudulent Ballots in Fulton County in the 2020 Election.
• “I Will Be Digging In More Today” – New Twitter Owner Elon Musk Vows to Investigate Algorithm on Shadowbanned Accounts and Other Issues.
• EXCLUSIVE: While the University of Oklahoma Implements a Robust Woke Agenda, China Dominates its Research Programs.
• Rasmussen Shows GOP Increasing Lead in the Overall House Congressional Ballot.
• SAFE and EFFECTIVE: European Medicines Agency Recommends Adding “Heavy Menstrual Bleeding” to Pfizer and Moderna’s COVID Shots Product Information as a Side Effect.

The Epoch Times:

• China Expanding Nuclear Arsenal to Threaten US: New Defense Strategy.
• ‘Substantial Evidence’ COVID-19 Result of Wuhan Laboratory ‘Incident’: Senate Report.

Twitter:

• @zerohedge - Top Dems Urge Biden To Nationalize Oil & Gas Industry.
• @RNCResearch - MUST WATCH: @kayleighmcenany highlights three times John Fetterman was the LONE vote to RELEASE brutal first-degree murderers. (video)
• @JunkScience - Next level ESG… social credit scores. Frightening. Going nationwide in Communist China in 2023. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 884,059 Reports(+3,177 from prior week) Through October 14th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 3,885.06 +2.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 32,788.5 +5.1%

• NASDAQ 11,051.85 +1.17%

• Russell 2000 1,835.62 +4.5%

• S&P 500 High Beta 62.48 +3.9%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 172.69 +5.5%

• Wilshire 5000 39,128.68 +3.3%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,249.27 +1.9%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,476.27 +4.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 761.54 +5.7%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,030.23 -2.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,587.06 +.46%

• Transports 13,525.08 +5.8%

• Utilities 914.83 +5.6%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 69.63 +1.6%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 34.21 -3.1%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,431.27 +.05%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 918.10 -.17%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 441,244 +1.59%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -141 +629
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -32.5 +.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 251,545 -3.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,454,431 -3.0%

• Total Put/Call .97 +1.1%

• OEX Put/Call .97 +2.7%

• ISE Sentiment 98.0 -2.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.42 +227.08% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 45.8 -11.9%
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 1.61 +6.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 25.99 -11.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.0% -22.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 53.2 -.87%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.7 -12.4%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.8 +1.5%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,955.03 +2.69%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  53.9 +10.6 points
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.527 Trillion -.01%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$6.695 Million

• AAII % Bulls 26.6 +17.7%

• AAII % Bears 45.7 -18.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 276.81 +1.6%

• Crude Oil 87.4 +3.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 283.16 +5.9%

• Natural Gas 5.68 +11.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 112.24 euros/megawatt-hour -4.5%
  

• Heating Oil 452.47 +15.7% 
• Newcastle Coal 380.5 (1,000/metric ton) -3.6%
  

• Gold 1,641.33 -1.0%
• Silver 19.18 -1.7%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 415.19 +2.3%

• Copper 343.65 -1.6%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 364.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 77.90 USD/Metric Tonne -13.7%

• Lumber  471.60 -11.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,475.38 -2.1%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 570.0 USD/Short Ton -.9%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.08% +23.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -14.1% -1.1 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 60.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.17 +16.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 148.50 +98.9%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.87 -1.39:  Growth Rate +14.5% -.6 percentage point, P/E 16.6 +.8 point

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.5 -11.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.0 -13.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.3 +14.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 16.3%(+11.3 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike and 83.7%(-11.3 percentage points) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 11/2 to 3.75-4.0%
  

• US Dollar Index 110.93 -.86%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,586.44 +.52%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 20,719.0 +5.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.73 +.92%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -40.5 -11.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.0% -20.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.688 Trillion -.25%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.17 -6.3%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 194.48 -7.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 207.0 -26.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.36 -16.7%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 118.64 -1.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 277.53 -3.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.84 -6.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.35 +7.5%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -1.9%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.4% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +11.0% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +11.2% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.11% -3.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51% -5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 36.75 -2.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 38.0 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -52.5 +11.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 89.0 -5.9%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 312.0 -10.6% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 455.0 +29.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 121.70 -10.9%
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 331.86 -6.1%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 284.20 -9.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 167.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Aggregate US CMBS Average OAS 1.29 +7.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.09 +18.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 2.6 -1.5 percentage points
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,300.5 +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 219,000 +3.2%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.0 n/a
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.10% -22.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 201,100 -1.7%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.2% +10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 47.9% +50.3 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $95.1M +14.0%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.76/gallon -.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,612 -11.4%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,862.25 -4.99%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 55.0 -4.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 35.6 -27.8%

• Rail Freight Carloads 267,866 +1.8%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,303,121 +15.1%
• US Covid-19:  77 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.4%(-2.8 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) -49/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -84.9%(+.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +4.7%
  

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth +1.9%
  

Leading Sectors

• Telecom +8.8%

• Homebuilding +7.6%
  

• Computer Services +6.1%

• I-Banking +5.8%

• Networking +5.7%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Electric Vehicles unch.
  

• Gold & Silver -.7%
  

• Shipping -2.1%

• Social Media -4.5%
  

• Steel -5.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (40)

• PFSI, DXCM, COHU, RUM, LOPE, FBC, GILD, INTC, ENVA, PMT, VRSN, TBBK, AAPL, BFH, FHI, ASPN, TMUS, PFG, ALGM, HLI, GWW, BLMN, BRKL, UCTT, NSSC, LBRDA, SF, MPWR, LBRDK, AXNX, COLM, CHTR, EHC, HIG, COF, WNC, EXTR, LMT and STAG
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (21)

• RVNC, DDOG, PUBM, MDB, BIDU, NTES, TCOM, CRTO, BABA, JD, ZTO, HTHT, SNOW, TROX, LI, ZLAB, BZ, BEKE, AMZN and PTCT
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Substantially Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Earnings Outlook Fears, Flight to Safety from Emerging Markets, Short-Covering, Insurance/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.2 -4.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 45.6 +3.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.77 +.78%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.8 +.16%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 53.4 +4.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -6.6%%

• NYSE Arms 1.32 +36.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.79 -4.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 352.4 -6.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 455.0 +5.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 121.91 -.6% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 331.9 +.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 207.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 222.84 +2.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 284.44 -.31%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.96 -.79%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 38.0 basis points +3.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 37.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -51.75 basis points -5.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  166.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 129.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.09 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.54 -.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.03% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -39.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 77.5 USD/Metric Tonne -4.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 109.50 euros/megawatt-hour +2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.5 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +5.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.3 +1.8 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.87 -.46:  Growth Rate +14.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 16.7 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.04 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.07% -2.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.11% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 48.1%(-10.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 45.5%(+5.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 77 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.4%(+1.6 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +28/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.9%(-.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +360 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +86 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of  my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then added some back
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long