Saturday, November 05, 2022

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                  

Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MET), (PLNT) and (TSLA).
  • Had bearish commentary on (PTON).

Fox News:

CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
MarketWatch.com:      
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Friday, November 04, 2022

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished China Hard Landing Fears, Dollar Strength, Bargain-Hunting, Commodity/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.0 -1.1%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 50.3 +2.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.5 +.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.2 -2.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .99 -5.7%
  • NYSE Arms .80 +15.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 92.53 -1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 360.18 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 500.0 +18.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 119.17 -3.8% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 365.61 -1.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 217.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 214.20 -3.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 283.44 -4.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.91 -.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 36.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 41.0 basis points +5.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -53.75 basis points +2.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  171.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 131.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.13 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.71 +.82%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.11% unch.
  • Yield Curve -50.25 basis points (2s/10s) +7.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 86.7 USD/Metric Tonne +4.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 115.0 euros/megawatt-hour -8.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.2 +1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.7 -2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.66 -.28:  Growth Rate +12.1% -.2 percentage point, P/E 16.1 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .97 +7.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.60% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.09% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 51.1%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 45.9%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.8%(-.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +119 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +101 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -53 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  25% Net Long

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 3,723.28 -4.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 31,990.9 -2.5%
  • NASDAQ 10,280.41 -7.2%
  • Russell 2000 1,775.44 -3.9%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 60.2 -4.4%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 158.32 -9.2%
  • Wilshire 5000 37,423.28 -4.6%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,099.28 -7.1%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,447.74 -2.4%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 738.83 -2.8%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,004.17 -4.6%
  • NYSE Technology 2,447.0 -6.1%
  • Transports 13,270.64 -2.1%
  • Utilities 900.54 -2.2%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 72.2 +3.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 35.86 +4.5%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,434.46 -.15%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 917.45 -.06%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 440,327 -.21%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -639 -498
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -32.1 +1.2%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 249,079 -.98%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,436,942 -1.2%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +3.2%
  • OEX Put/Call .97 -8.6%
  • ISE Sentiment 90.0 -8.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .82 -17.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 50.4 +10.0%
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 1.58 -3.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.1 -2.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.1% +5.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.5 -3.9%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.8 +1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.3 -4.1%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,894.17 -.44%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  55.2 +1.3 points
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.632 Trillion +1.0%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$10.939 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 30.6 +15.0%
  • AAII % Bears 32.9 -28.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 278.32 +2.1%
  • Crude Oil 92.1 +4.2%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 272.77 +7.2%
  • Natural Gas 6.20 +7.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 114.79 euros/megawatt-hour +5.0%
  • Heating Oil 393.82 -15.7% 
  • Newcastle Coal 350.5 (1,000/metric ton) -7.9%
  • Gold 1,673.33 +1.7%
  • Silver 20.74 +7.6%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 407.7 +.75%
  • Copper 368.65 +7.3%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 350.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.8%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 87.20 USD/Metric Tonne +12.8%
  • Lumber  425.0 -9.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,533.02 +4.0%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 535.0 USD/Short Ton -6.1%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.60% +52.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -15.1% -1.0 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 60.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.23 -4.3%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 144.30 +60.6%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.66 -1.21:  Growth Rate +12.1% -2.4 percentage points, P/E 16.0 -.6 point
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +4.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.2 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.7 -6.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-8.4 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 56.8%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike and 43.2%(-.2 percentage point) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 12/14 to 4.50-4.75%
  • US Dollar Index 111.26 +.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,578.85 -.16%
  • Bitcoin/USD 20,770.1 +.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.6 -.76%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -51.25 -10.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.16% +16.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.642 Trillion -.53%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.12 +3.4%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 190.30 -1.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 217.0 +10.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.4 -3.5%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 104.73 -11.5%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 262.22 -6.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.74 +2.4%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.20 +10.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.91 -.27%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.4% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +11.0% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +11.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.09% -2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46% -5.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 41.0 +3.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 36.75 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -53.75 -1.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 92.53 +4.6%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 305.0 -2.3
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 500.0 +45.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 119.73 -1.6%
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 365.95 +9.9%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 282.93 -.80%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Aggregate US CMBS Average OAS 1.31 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.13 +4.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 2.6 unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,300.5 unch.
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 219,000 +3.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 47.60 -.54%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.35% +25.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 200,100 -.55%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +8.5% +30.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -4.0% -51.9 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $144.2M +50.4%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.79/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,290 -15.9%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,790.86 -3.8%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 57.50 +4.5%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 36.0 +1.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 270,032 +.81%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,236,880 +22.3%
  • US Covid-19:  84 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.4 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -84.8%(-.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -2.4%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Growth -7.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Steel +5.1%
  • Oil Service +4.6%
  • Shipping +4.1%
  • Electric Vehicles +3.8%
  • Energy +2.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Homebuilers -6.2%
  • Networking -7.9%
  • Software -9.9%
  • Cyber Security -10.8%
  • Internet -11.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)
  • PODD, COLD, KMPR, ANET, TSE and DASH
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (74)
  • ROG, CE, TRIN, PCTY, DISH, ETV, GLOB, SBGI, GDYN, KEYS, LYV, SEM, PARA, ETSY, VRRM, PANW, AVB, PYPL, NSSC, NICE, NXST, OTEX, CYBR, AFRM, ACAD, QTWO, CRM, EVH, VRNS, IRTC, DDOG, PTCT, NOW, WDAY, ROKU, CHWY, DOCN, OGN, TNDM, GDDY, PAAS, PAYC, FIVN, CRWD, MDB, ZS, CFLT, ZI, BILL, RPD, NCNO, OKTA, ESTC, S, HCP, FROG, SNOW, COUP, GTLB, MNDY, FA, WBD, SMAR, YELP, CDNA, FRG, NET, DH, APPN, CYRX, VIAV, TEAM, TWLO and SYNH
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +36.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 26.1% of Issues Advancing, 70.6% Declining
  • 61 New 52-Week Highs, 134 New Lows
  • 34.6%(+7.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +6.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 50.5 +2.8%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,302.3 -.11%
  • Vix 24.1 -4.9%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -16.2%
  • TRIN/Arms .76 +10.1%