Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,045.6 +1.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,390.9 +1.6%

• NASDAQ 11,689.01 +2.5%

• Russell 2000 1,928.26 +2.1%

• S&P 500 High Beta 72.55 +3.3% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 6.50 +5.7%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 153.70 +5.8%

• Wilshire 5000 40,915.2 +1.9%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,353.38 +2.4%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,541.28 +1.4%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 755.69 -.40%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,116.3 +.92%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,003.6 +3.6%

• Transports 15,113.3 +3.3%

• Utilities 916.2 -1.7%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 90.2 +2.0%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.6 +3.5%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,464.3 +.12%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 923.3 -.11%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 454,248 -.33%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.79 +82.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -113 -24
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -29.8 +3.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 243,820 -2.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,726,378 +4.0%

• Total Put/Call .90 -19.1%

• OEX Put/Call 1.36 -16.2%

• ISE Sentiment 91.0 +5.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .73 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.8 +10.1%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 28.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 18.5 -13.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.19% +10.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.0 -9.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.56 -3.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.5 -4.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,442.20 -4.1%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  47.4 -9.7
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.894 Trillion +1.5%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$5.723 Million

• AAII % Bulls 23.4 +8.3%

• AAII % Bears 44.8 +16.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 275.05 +3.0%

• Crude Oil 79.79/bbl. +4.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 275.12 +6.5%

• Natural Gas 3.00 +19.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.9 euros/megawatt-hour -11.5%
  

• Heating Oil 290.64 +4.0% 
• Newcastle Coal 194.0 (1,000/metric ton) -5.1%
  

• Gold 1,885.0 +2.4%
• Silver 21.23 +2.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 453.1 +2.3%

• Copper 407.40 +3.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 462.0 USD/Metric Tonne +6.7%

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.9 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%

• Lumber  406.10 +5.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,554.26 +.33%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 365.0 USD/Short Ton -2.0%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +2.27% -23.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 60.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.09 -.1%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 145.19 +144.4%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.29 +1.32:  Growth Rate +1.1% +.8 percentage point, P/E 17.7 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.33% -6.0 basis points
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.9 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 64.4 -4.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.4 +6.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 69.4%(-3.6 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.75-5.0% and 30.6%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike to 5.0-5.25% on 3/22
  

• US Dollar Index 104.6 -.62%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,670.81 +.22%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 22,330.8 -5.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.5 +.54%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -90.5 -4.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.96% -1.0 basis point
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.304 Trillion -.51%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.8 +9.7%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 159.0 -8.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 182.0 +2.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.69 -1.0%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.07 -8.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 217.06 -8.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.2 -2.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.0 -9.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.3 +.44%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.6% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +6.9% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +10.1% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Rents YoY 6.22% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% -2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52% +14.0 basis points

• TED Spread 14.5 -.5 basis point
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 +.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 71.2 -6.8%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 248.0 -1.0% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 323.0 +22.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 86.3 -3.8%
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 392.9 -3.0%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 227.25 -6.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 527.0 +14.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .55 -6.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -1.7% -40.0 basis points
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,214.4 -1.9%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 193,000 +.92%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.1 +.5%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.12% +18.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 188,500 -5.66%

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.9% +10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +.9% -2.1 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $119.8M n/a
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.39/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 1,145.0 +29.7%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,057.7 -1.9%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 40.0 -5.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 232,798 -2.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,299,188 +12.3%
  
• US Covid-19:  84 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -83.2%(-.8 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +3.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.3%

Leading Sectors

• Steel +7.5%

• Gambling +7.1%
• Oil Service +6.6%
  

• Gold & Silver +6.2%
  

• Video Gaming +5.1%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Hardware -1.5%
  

• Disk Drives -1.6%
  

• Utilities -1.7%

• Education -2.2%
  

• Telecom -2.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)

• AI, IOT, XPOF, BPMC, IAS, ESTC, ARRY, RVMD, COO, SOI, TRIN, SIX, OKTA, ECVT, VMW, CEIX, FSLR, AVGO, RAPT, VEEV, VVV and MCS
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• HRL, PSO, DLO, BRP, JBGS, MRVL, RYTM, BMBL, EGLE and ZS
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.8 -4.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .91%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.8 +1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.60 -.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.9 -1.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -19.6%

• NYSE Arms .86 +16.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 -4.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 335.8 -3.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 323.0 -6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.66 -3.97% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 392.9 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 182.0 basis basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.2 -1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.8 -4.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.3 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 14.75 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  148.0 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 527.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 55.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.84% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.9 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 64.4 -6.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.4 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.3 +1.30:  Growth Rate +1.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.33% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 unch.
  
• Yield Curve -90.5 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.27% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 64.0%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 56.3%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +237 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +52 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -.5% 2) Education -.4% 3) Disk Drives -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• COST, BRP, PSO, ATRO, JBGS, MRVL, RYTM, BMBL, ZS and EGLE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ALLY 2) ESPR 3) ZATI 4) COST 5) AVGO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VERU 2) EGLE 3) ZS 4) ITRI 5) COST
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Alt Energy +2.9% 2) Internet +2.5% 3) AI/Robotics +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AI, LPSN, IOT, XPOF, LAZR, BPMC, RVMD, ESTC, IAS, SYM, SOI, COO, OKTA, TPIC, TRIN, ECVT, VMW, VEEV, MCS, FSLR, DO and SNOW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARDX 2) CLNE 3) DKS 4) CTIC 5) COST

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AI 2) ARDX 3) IOT 4) VERI 5) XPOF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (CIEN)/.36
• (RIDE)/-.24
  

After the Close:

• (AVAV)/.43
• (GRPN)/-.36
• (NTNX)/.11
  

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Jan. is estimated to fall -1.7% versus a +1.8% gain in Dec.
• Durable Goods report revisions for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (PCAR) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Retail Sales report, Cowen Healthcare Conference, Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, (UBER) fireside chat with Morgan Stanley, (MRK) Cardio Investor Event and the JMP securities Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.2 +.9
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 69.8% of Issues Advancing, 27.2% Declining
• 74 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 54.5%(+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.0 +9.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.9 +2.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,932.1 +.46%
  
• Vix 18.9 -3.3%
• Total Put/Call .74 -30.8%
• TRIN/Arms .89 +20.3%