Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 3,913.1 +1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 31,814.7 -.06%

• NASDAQ 11,607.5 +4.7%

• Russell 2000 1,721.54 -2.5%

• S&P 500 High Beta 66.11 -.82% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 5.94 +2.3%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 135.0 -.33%

• Wilshire 5000 39,133.8 +1.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,337.12 +4.3%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,428.28 -1.5%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 747.74 +1.2%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,109.9 +1.7%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,996.3 +5.3%

• Transports 13,788.4 -2.8%

• Utilities 920.53 +4.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.98 -12.0%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 37.6 -.68%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,446.53 -.34%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 923.54 -.31%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 447,738 -.64%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 4.5 -4.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -473 -90
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -25.8 +2.9%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 206,901 -3.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,755,027 +.28%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -17.1%

• OEX Put/Call 1.30 +26.6%

• ISE Sentiment 85.0 +18.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.7 -.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 41.3 -24.7%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.73.0 -57.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 25.4 -.28%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.46% -26.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.0 +3.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.54 +4.7%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.8 +5.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,577.83 -5.8%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  41.9 -18.2
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.015 Trillion +2.5%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$4.201 Million

• AAII % Bulls 19.2 -22.6%

• AAII % Bears 48.4 +16.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 256.64 -3.2%

• Crude Oil 66.72/bbl. -12.6%

• Reformulated Gasoline 249.9 -5.0%

• Natural Gas 2.34 -2.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.9 euros/megawatt-hour -19.1%
  

• Heating Oil 267.87 -3.1% 
• Newcastle Coal 179.65 (1,000/metric ton) -.69%
  

• Gold 1,978.54 +5.7%
• Silver 22.5 +9.5%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 430.39 -2.4%

• Copper 390.15 -2.5%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 460.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Lumber  448.50 +7.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,521.87 -.52%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 365.0 USD/Short Ton +.7%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +3.25% +45.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 60.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index .96 +33.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 303.9 +195.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.83 n/a:  Growth Rate +1.5% n/a, P/E 17.5 
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% unch.
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.7 +6.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.4 -11.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +5.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 31.4%(+31.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 68.6%(+8.8 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.75-5.0% and 0.0%(-40.2 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike to 5.0-5.25% on 3/22
  

• US Dollar Index 103.83 -.74%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,670.48 +.25%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 26,430.8 +23.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.9 -1.8%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -48.0 +41.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.40% -30.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.603 Trillion +3.6%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.7 +1.7%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 183.28 +10.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 +14.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.79 +11.9%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.3 +3.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 247.14 +8.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 63.68 +24.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.7 -1.7%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.86 -.98%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.6% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +6.3% -60.0 basis points
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +9.5% -60.0 basis points
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Rents YoY 6.15% -7.0 basis points
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% +1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +5.22% -99.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11% -18.0 basis points

• TED Spread 59.75 +33.0 basis points
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.25 -6.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 88.67 +5.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 283.0 +16.1% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 448.0 +125.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 128.46 +39.25%
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 1,051.53 +127.9%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 263.45 +8.5%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 634.0 +60.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .72 +14.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -1.7% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,163.4 -1.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 196,500 -.38%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% +10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.1 unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.0% -5.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 214,500 +6.5%

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.8% -20.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +129.5% +121.6 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $150.7M +16.3%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.46/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,560.0 +9.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 992.5 -2.8%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 60.0 +14.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 45.6 -5.9%

• Rail Freight Carloads 229,383 -3.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,461,141 +8.0%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +4.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -3.8%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +11.7%

• Software +8.2%
• Internet +6.3%
  

• Semis +5.7%
  

• Video Gaming +5.6%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Alt Energy -6.3%
  

• Energy -7.5%
  

• Airlines 9.2%

• Oil Service -11.9%
  

• Banks -14.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• MSTR, COIN, FDX, NEM, ACIW, ACLX, SD, PHYS, IAU, COCO, EEFT, GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, ADBE and FHI
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (64)

• BE, FBNC, ING, CHRD, OZK, CSIQ, BC, FFBC, PNC, FITB, AAT, FHN, BHF, QTWO, CAR, HOMB, BOWL, ACDC, URI, HRI, TCBI, FBP, MAXN, SSB, AMLX, HEES, WTFC, ALTG, SFNC, RCKT, PK, TFC, OCFC, HBAN, ZION, TEX, HTZ, VNO, CMA, HALO, EWBC, KW, UMBF, SPWR, KEY, KMT, USB, SNV, SILK, ASB, ENPH, SBGI, SLG, BKU, GTLS, CUTR, RUN, NOVA, WAL, SRPT and FRC
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Global Bank Contagion Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Technical Selling, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.2 +9.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.45%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 42.5 -12.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.2 -.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.9 +9.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +7.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +71.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.4 +3.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 448.77 +7.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 448.0 +8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 132.4 +10.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 1,051.5 +5.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 basis basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.8 -2.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 262.2 +2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 +.6%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 51.5 basis points +25.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.25 -4.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  157.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 634.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 72.0 +4.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.2 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.37% -28.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 130.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.64%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.7 -7.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.4 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 -.6 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.83 +.53:  Growth Rate +1.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 17.3 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.76 +14.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.25% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -9.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 56.6%(+16.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 42.5%(+23.4 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -529 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks -4.8% 2) Alt Energy -3.5% 3) Airlines -2.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ARE, PDCE, AUB, OZK, FFIN, ALL, RDN, UBS, FITB, MTB, STWD, COOP, EFC, UTZ, FBRT, OPI, ING, SCHW, JBGS, BOWL, TFC, BXP, HALO, DEI, ZION, UMBF, GRI, HBAN, RCKT, SEDG, EWBC, CRS, CMA, KEY, SNV, USB, SNV, KMT, KW, BKU, VNO, RUN, SLG, NOVA, WAL, SRPT and FRC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RWM 2) FRC 3) ARI 4) ACRE 5) DPST
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WAL 2) EBS 3) SRPT 4) PACW 5) LNC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Gold & Silver +4.0% 2) Software +.3% 3) Steel unch.

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MSTR, COIN, FDX, BIDU, BLFS, GFI, ACIW, AU, FNV, NEM, AEM, IE, WPM, OR, GOLD, COCO and ACLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PACW 2) FRC 3) KRE 4) ACAD 5) SCHW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ENZ 2) FDX 3) MSTR 4) RIOT 5) NEM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (FL)/.50
• (PDD)/7.48
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits

• (MRBK) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The PBOC rate decision, Piper Sandler Energy Conference, BofA Virtual Electronic Payments Symposium and the (FL) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +49.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 2.7 -4.0
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 13.3% of Issues Advancing, 84.6% Declining
• 8 New 52-Week Highs, 124 New Lows
• 37.8%(-6.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 29.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 41.8 -13.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,012.3 +1.2%
  
• Vix 24.8 +7.7%
• Total Put/Call 1.01 +4.1%
• TRIN/Arms 2.01 +125.8%