Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Global Bank Contagion Fears, Dollar Weakness, Technical Buying, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Gaining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.9 -4.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .82%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.4 +5.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.1 +.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -.08%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.2 -3.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 +8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -19.3%

• NYSE Arms .95 +20.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.3 -2.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 438.7 -4.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 459.0 +10
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 116.0 -.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 422.8 -18.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 147.1 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 249.4 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.6 -.5%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 49.0 basis points -4.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 +3.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  154.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 661.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 91.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.68% +8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.5 euros/megawatt-hour +3.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.5 -1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.5 +6.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.6 +3.4 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.31 +.08:  Growth Rate +1.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.6 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.33% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.49 +26.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -49.0 basis points (2s/10s) -9.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.19% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 57.2%(-6.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 48.6%(-10.1 percentage points) chance of 4.50%-4.75%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -76 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +192 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -1.2% 2) Video Gaming -1.0% 3) Software -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ONON, PRAA, MANU, MSTR, FYBR and DAWN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FRC 2) EPR 3) KEY 4) PACW 5) LSI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CDAK 2) CGNT 3) DLR 4) HTHT 5) DISH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Oil Service +3.9% 2) Energy +2.6% 3) Banks +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HROW, BLKB, FRC, CMA, SGFY, SQ, ROKU, COCO and ZION
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FRC 2) PACW 3) FITB 4) CTLT 5) AXP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BLKB 2) FRC 3) RPRX 4) KEY 5) CMA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (MKC)/.50
• (WBA)/1.11
  

After the Close: 

• (CALM)/5.70
• (PLAY)/.70
• (JEF)/.44
• (LULU)/4.26
• (MU)/-.85
• (PRGS)/1.05
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Feb. is estimated at -$90.0B versus -$91.5B in Jan.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.4% decline in Jan.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.1% decline in Dec.
• The S&P  CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Jan. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.51% decline in Dec.

10:00 am EST

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to fall to 101.0 versus 102.9 in Feb.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to rise to -10 versus -16 in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for March.

Upcoming Splits

• (MNST) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Senate Banking Committee Hearing on Bank Failures, Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for March and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.1 +.7
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 61.4% of Issues Advancing, 35.1% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 253 New Lows
• 39.5%(+5.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0 +8.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.8 +4.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,096.9 -.46%
  
• Vix 21.4 -1.8%
• Total Put/Call .92 -15.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.33 +68.4%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                     

• China Central Government Is Borrowing at Fastest Pace on Record.
• China’s Top Brands Stay Cautious on Post-Covid Consumer Recovery.
• Credit Suisse Takeover Hands Swiss Business a Big Headache.
• Jack Ma’s Self-Exile Undercuts China’s Pitch to Private Business.
• Global IPO Market Revival Undermined by Banking, Recession Risks.
• Fast Slide of ‘Super Peso’ Highlights Test for Emerging Markets. 
•  US Equity Futures Advance, Asia Stocks Edge Higher: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher After Weekly Gain as Banking Concerns Linger.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodities This Week.
• Fed’s Kashkari Says Bank Strains Bring Risk of Recession Closer.
• Investors Brace for Another Week of Turmoil as Mad March Ends.
• Valley National, First Citizens Said to Bid on Silicon Valley.
• Biden’s Pick to Head FAA Withdraws After Senate Panel Stalemate.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Strongest Protection for Your Online Accounts? This Little Key.
• Why Chinese Apps Are the Favorites of Young Americans.
• Oil Volatility Is Turbocharged by Options Hedging.
• Pentagon Woos Silicon Valley to Join Ranks of Arms Makers.
• Musk Offers Employees Stock Grants Valuing Twitter at About $20 Billion.
• How Big Companies Choose Who Is Laid Off.
• Where Financial Risk Lies, in 12 Charts.
• Marijuana Has Special Risks for Older People.
• Telehealth Apps Sharing User Data Draw FTC Crackdown.
• New York Poised to Ban Gas Stoves in New Buildings.
• First Republic Bank Founder Earned a Big Payday, as Did Family Members.

Fox News:

• Black mom fires back at plan to lower academic standards for diversity at her kids' prep school.
• Another tornado levels homes as severe weather piles on the region.
• Nearly 100 Babylon Bee joke punchlines have turned into 'fulfilled prophecies'. 
• Beloved restaurant chain latest company to flee crime-riddled blue city.

CNBC:

• Top Wall Street analysts prefer these five stocks despite ongoing uncertainty.
• Shrinking food stamp benefits for families mean yet another challenge for retailers.

Reuters:

• IMF says risks to financial stability have increased, calls for vigilance.

Zero Hedge:   

• 'The Witch Hunt Against Me Is DEAD': Trump Says Manhattan DA Tricked By 'Fraud' Star Witness, Wasn't Into 'Horseface' Stormy.
• The Three Possibilities Facing The US Banking System. 
• 'The Real Question Is How Many': James O'Keefe Suggests He Has Multiple Insiders In Manhattan DA Case Against Trump.
• Will You Play It Fast And Loose?
• Autism On The Rise: CDC Data.
• Which Countries Hold The Most US Debt?
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open. 
• Goldman Trader: "Nothing Has Gone As Planned: More Things Will Break And A Credit Crunch Is Coming".
• Panic In Philly As Chemical Spill Sends Residents Scrambling For Bottled Water.
• New Documents Expose Government Censorship Efforts At Facebook And WhatsApp. 
• 'Go, Go, Go! Help Them Up! Push Them Up': New Leaked J6 Footage 'Shows DC Metro Cop Encouraging People To Go Towards The Capitol'.
• NYPD Overtime Budget On Pace For Record As Cop Shortage Worsens.
• Are we there yet? How far can the tech chase continue?
• Mattresses, Social Media, Smart Phones, & Failure Of The Fed.
• IPO Market Shattered By Banking Crisis.
• David Stockman On The Status Of The Everything Bubble Created By The Fed.
• Disruption Is At The Epicenter Of The Problem That The Economy & The Market Are Facing.
• Anti-Cop Group Sued By LAPD For Posting 9,300 Photos Of Officers With Bounties
• Buy/Rent Premium Highest Since 2006 Housing Bubble Peak.
• US Tensions With Iran Reignite As Dollar's Petro-Currency Status Under Threat.
• Eurasian Integration Including Iran Proceeds Despite US "Maximum Pressure" Campaign
• Eminent Oxford Scientist Says Wind Power "Fails On Every Count".
• Johnstone: US Officials Really, Really Want You To Know The US Is The World's "Leader".
• Asian Voters Abandoning Woke Democrats As Crime Rises In Cities.
• Ford's "Blue Oval City" Aims To Open In 2025, Produce 500,000 Next Gen Electric Trucks A Year.
• Military Officials: Diversity Training Makes Soldiers Feel "Included".
• Taibbi: People Can Win.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Opinion: The most hated stocks are crushing Wall Street in 2023 — so far.
• Why the worst banking mess since 2008 isn’t freaking out stock-market investors — yet.
• ‘Some losses’ in commercial real estate and Treasurys may still need to work ‘through the banking sector,’ says Fed’s Kashkari.

NewsMax:

• Protests, Resignations in Israel After Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Spanish Third-Division Match Suspended After World Cup Star’s Brother Suffers Cardiac Arrest During First Half (VIDEO). 
• UPDATE: Taliban Releases Video of Fields of US Military Vehicles, Piles of US High-End Weapons, and Room Filled with Stacks of 100 Dollar Bills Joe Biden Surrendered to Taliban.
• 20 CONFIRMED INCIDENTS AND OPERATIONS: The DOZENS of Feds, FBI Agents and State Operatives Who Infiltrated the Trump Crowds on January 6th at the US Capitol and Led the Protests.
• Brazilian BOMBSHELL: Mounting Evidence Ties Criminal Syndicate’s Plan to Murder Senator Moro to President Lula – Moro Was the Judge Who Sent Lula to Prison.
• EXCLUSIVE: Another Election System Provider – Tenex Software – Like Knowink – Connects to Internet, Not Certified, Not Audited, Across Numerous States.
• Football Star Zé Carlos Collapses on Field During Match, Then Collapses Again On the Sideline (VIDEO).
• BASED: UFC Fighter Holly Holm Calls Out the Sexualization of Children (VIDEO).
• Chuck Schumer Claims Republican Bill Supporting Parents’ Rights in Education is ‘Orwellian’.
• WATCH: “People See IT’S BULLSH*T” – President Trump Slams Sham Investigations, “The New Weapon Being Used by Out-of-Control Unhinged Democrats to Cheat”.
• President Trump in Waco: “Either the Deep State Destroys America, or We Destroy the Deep State”.

The Epoch Times:

• Honduras Cuts Diplomatic Ties With Taiwan, Recognizes China.

Twitter:

• @theinformantofc - #China police have special glasses to recognize people. These glasses help identify license plates and human faces, as well as determine a person's social rating. (video)
  

• @MichaelPSenger - “It is rather shocking how his money alone has managed to buy the silence of scientists the world over, who have shown themselves to be appallingly obsequious and deferential to the crankism that Gates has been peddling for decades.”

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 943,911 Reports(+1,877 from prior week) Through March 10th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 145.5 +2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 85.75 +2.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 118.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 46.8 +.22%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.01 -26.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.2 +.03%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.98%.
• S&P 500 futures +.36%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.