Sunday, May 07, 2023

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Zero Hedge: 
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (CARR), (QRVO) and (TT).
  • Had bearish commentary on (DIS) and (BLK).
CNBC:
MarketWatch.com:
NewsMax:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
The Epoch Times:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.25 -1.25 basis points
  • China Sovereign CDS 75.25 -2.75 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.59%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.4 +.06%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .01 +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.4 +.06%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures unch.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, May 05, 2023

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
CNBC:
MarketWatch.com:
NewsMax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:  
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,141.9 -.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 33,686.4 -1.20%
  • NASDAQ 12,247.17 +.14%
  • Russell 2000 1,762.05 -.67%
  • NYSE FANG+ 6,179.07 +.87% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 29.4 -3.1%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 137.69 -.14%
  • Wilshire 5000 41,241.3 -.68%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,491.46 +.12%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,500.29 -1.74%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 803.89 -.46%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,106.02 -.67%
  • NYSE Technology 3,119.30 +.81%
  • Transports 14,167.23 +1.0%
  • Utilities 960.11 +.18%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.0 -.73%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.47 +.65%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,463.3 -.30%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 919.88 -.30%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 452,381 -.68%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.1 -19.3%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -644 -463
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -28.7 -2.1%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 236,438 -3.33%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,826,195 -4.6%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -6.3%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.13 +7.5%
  • ISE Sentiment 100.0 -3.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .65 -35.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.7 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .05 unch.
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -4.51 -2.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.8 +7.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.48% +41.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.74 +5.8%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.87 +2.7%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.81 -.2%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,245.30 +.76%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  67.0 +16.2
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.310 Trillion +.9%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$.385 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 24.1 unch.
  • AAII % Bears 44.9 +16.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 261.60 -4.2%
  • Crude Oil 71.41/bbl. -6.9%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 238.22 -5.9%
  • Natural Gas 2.13 -11.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.6 euros/megawatt-hour -4.5%
  • Heating Oil 231.90 -2.5% 
  • Newcastle Coal 170.0 (1,000/metric ton) -8.6%
  • Gold 2,017.02 +1.22%
  • Silver 25.64 +2.2%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 429.87 -1.9%
  • Copper 389.35 +.31%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 377.0 USD/Metric Tonne -11.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.5 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%
  • Lumber  347.2 -2.2%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,594.98 +1.96%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 395.0 USD/Short Ton +1.3%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.66% +100.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index .92 -11.5%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 131.3 n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.72 +.99:  Growth Rate +2.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 17.8 -.4 
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% -3.0 basis points
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.7 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.6 -29.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.9 +1.3 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-11.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.75-5.0%, 91.5%(+26.9 percentage points) chance of no change, 8.5%(-15.4 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.25-5.50% on 6/14
  • US Dollar Index 101.25 -.39%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,692.67 +.32%
  • Bitcoin/USD 29,338.5 +.43%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.59 -.97%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -47.75 +13.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.44% unch.
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.467 Trillion -.69% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $50.699 Billion -28.6%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.99 +.98%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 177.91 +2.94%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 +3.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.0 +4.8%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.23 +5.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 225.75 +.61%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.21 -.54%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.12 +1.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.6 -.62%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.5% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +6.0% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +8.5% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Rents YoY 6.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22% unch.
  • TED Spread 9.5 -13.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 80.3 +5.7%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 266.0 +7.2
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 428.0 +28.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 103.77 +5.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 380.85 +4.0%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 246.92 +3.3%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 167.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 709.0 +13.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -4.1% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,144.0 -.40%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 239,250 +1.5%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.8 +.44%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.79% -21.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 214,400 -1.15%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.4% -10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $154.1M -17.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.56/gallon -.07/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,545 -2.3%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 967.58 +.32%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 -13.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 45.9 +4.9%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 245,642 +2.4%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,498,939 -.73%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -1.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +5.1%
  • Computer Hardware +4.3%
  • Road & Rail +2.9%
  • Disk Drives +2.6%
  • Biotech +1.9%
Lagging Sectors
  • Shipping -5.1%
  • Energy -5.3%
  • Telecom -5.4%
  • Banks -7.4%
  • Regional Banks -10.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)
  • LASR, OMI, FNKO, SPXC, FLGT, DKNG, BILL, EDIT, NCR, LYV, APLS, QLYS, AMN, CRNX, SEM, POWI, LMND, MTZ, IAS, ATEC, PRVA and PDO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (34)
  • ARLP, PRGO, TXRH, BRKR, GDDY, CRUS, FND, GPRE, SBH, TSE, NGVT, PCTY, IRTC, PRDO, DAVA, PYCR, ASAI, FYBR, GLOB, ENV, SDGR, FOXF, TNDM, MYGN, TEAM, MPWR, AVID, EPAM, PWSC, CLFD, USM, TRUP, ATSG and TOP
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Diminished Regional Bank Contagion Fears, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Financial/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.4 -13.6%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.08%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.2 +8.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.5 +.43%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.81 +.31%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.7 -9.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +11.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .92 +4.6%
  • NYSE Arms .68 -25.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.05 -2.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 413.20 -3.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 428.0 +15.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.79 -3.9% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 378.08 -1.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.3 -.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 247.87 -1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.63 -.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 6.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 +1.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 709.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.0 +.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.24% +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.54 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.6 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.7 +3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.6 -19.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.9 +.3 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.72 +.22:  Growth Rate +2.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +26.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.51 +19.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -47.5 basis points (2s/10s) -10.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.66% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 60.9%(+26.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 51.0%(+12.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -83 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +79 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BNTX)/.70
  • (DISH)/.39
  • (ENR)/.52
  • (FRPT)/-.43
  • (SIX)/-.86
  • (THS)/.40
  • (TSN)/.80
After the Close: 
  • (DDD)/-.07
  • (ADTN)/.04
  • (DVN)/1.39
  • (FN)/1.87
  • (MCK)/7.13
  • (PYPL)/1.10
  • (SWKS)/2.03
  • (TREX)/.33
  • (WDC)/-1.57

Economic Releases

10:00 Am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Import Prices report, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference and the (AES) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +11.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.3 +.2
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 84.7% of Issues Advancing, 13.6% Declining
  • 34 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
  • 39.3%(+6.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 +9
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.2 +8.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,263.7 +.46%
  • 1-Day Vix 12.1 -41.9%
  • Vix 17.6 -12.6% 
  • Total Put/Call .94 +6.8%
  • TRIN/Arms .87 -4.4%