Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -2.5% 2) Oil Service -2.4% 3) Biotech -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SEDG, KRTX, NGVT, GOLD, AGL, DBX, SCCO, APLS, SBS, VRNA, CPRX, FND, CRS, WSM, IMCR, COUR, DKS, DECK, VEEV, BLBD, TOST, FLYW, AUPH, DRD, PENN, PZZA, FUTU, AGI, MODG, ASO, IMCR, CRSP, NOG, AUPH, PARA, FYBR, SGEN, RNG, FLNG, BYND, SOVO, AMLX, MGNI, U, ETSY, UPST, KDNY, NNOX, ALNY, FLNC, VOD, DNLI, GDS, RH, SA, MRVI, ONON, PSFE, TERN, HZNP and SE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HZNP 2) STLA 3) SE 4) HD 5) SGEN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SE 2) PACW 3) LPSN 4) BIRD 5) SGEN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Disk Drives +1.1% 2) Computer Hardware +.8% 3) Semis +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SSYS, VKTX, PX, BOH and ZI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SYF 2) HZNP 3) TJX 4) ZI 5) FUTU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APLD 2) NVCR 3) CABA 4) NVTS 5) BKYI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (JACK)/1.22
• (TGT)/1.79
• (TJX)/.71
• (TGI)/.24
  

After the Close: 

• (BOOT)/1.44
• (CSCO)/.97
• (CPRT)/.64
• (SQM)/3.01
• (SNPS)/2.47
• (TTWO)/.67
• (VSAT)/3.50
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for April is estimated to fall to 1400K versus 1420K in March.
• Building Permits for April is estimated to rise to 1430K versus 1413K in March.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -740,000 barrels versus a +295,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,940,000 barrels versus a -3,167,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -680,000 barrels versus a -4,170,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.68% versus a +.3% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Industrial Production report, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (AAON) investor day, Barclays FinTech Forum and the BMO Capital Farm to Market Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -2.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.2 +.2
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 20.2% of Issues Advancing, 76.6% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 50 New Lows
• 40.9%(-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0 -4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.0 -.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,619.2 +.7%
• 1-Day Vix 9.7 -16.9%
  
• Vix 17.8 +3.9% 
  
• Total Put/Call .91 -4.2%
• TRIN/Arms .92 +21.0%
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Germany Urges China to Shut Secret Police Outposts in Berlin.
• The High Cost of Eating Is Crushing Europe.
• Turkey Set for Runoff as Erdogan Falls Just Short of Victory.
• Asian Stocks Rise; Topix Set for Three-Decade High: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher With US Seeking Crude for Strategic Reserves.
• Fed Officials Signal Rate Caution on Credit and Price Pressures.
• SVB’s Ex-CEO Says Fed, Social Media Contributed to Collapse.
• Fed’s Barr Wants More Oversight of Bank Executives’ Pay After SVB Collapse.
• US Households Show Signs of Stress as New Delinquencies Rise.
• JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees Stock Selloff as US Debt Talks Drag On.
• Drug Companies Are Minting Billions on Unproven Treatments With FDA Shortcut.
• Chicago’s Empty Office Towers Threaten Its Future as a Major Financial Hub.
• Banks Face Regulatory Scrutiny Over Interest-Rate Risks.
• Google Billionaire Sergey Brin Gifts $600 Million in Surging Shares.
• Regional Banks’ Problem: They’re Too Small to Succeed.
• Why the US Housing Market Is Still Broken After Fed Hikes, in Charts.

Zero Hedge:

• "The American Public Was Scammed": Trump Responds After Bomshell Durham Report 'Exonerates'.
• America’s Powerful Intellectual Class Finds 'Joy In Making Us Obey And Be Compliant,' Warns Scholar.
• Average Age Of American Cars Hits Record High.
• Fired Teachers Who Refused COVID Vaccine To Get Full Reinstatement And Back Pay.
• Netflix Race-Swapped Cleopatra Show Receives Lowest Rating In Rotten Tomatoes History.
• Babson's Warning.
• Can we please move?
• Watch: Meleé Erupts At Minneapolis Dems' Nominating Convention.
• US stocks gained alongside a short squeeze in regional banks - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Kunstler: The Elites Are The Useful Idiots Of The Security State.
• China Suddenly Buys TSYs Amid March US Banking Crisis, Gold Reserves Hit Record High.
• Farewell Questions For Rochelle Walensky.
• Stocks rise with regional banks while Dollar dips on weak survey data - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• "Could Be Days" - Yellen Reiterates Warning Of June 1st 'X-Date' For Debt-Ceiling.
• US "Plans" To Buy 3 Million Barrels For SPR Days After It Drained 2.9 Million In One Week.
• Banks & Bond Yields Jump On Goolsbee, Gensler, Biden, Bostic, & Bad Data.
• The Devastating Treasury Basis Trade Is Back And Hitting Record Levels... Just As Liquidity Collapses To All Time Low.
• Tudor Jones Warns "Bitcoin Has A Real Problem" In The US As DeSantis Bans CBDCs.
• The Energy Transition Has A Metals Problem.

Wall Street Journal:

• CEO Pay Packages Decline for First Time in a Decade.
• Air-Bag Recall Demand Came After Eight-Year Probe.
• The Disappearing White-Collar Job.
• Virginia Rep. Connolly’s Staffers Attacked With Bat.
• Biden’s Bleak Story About Race in America Is False. His warnings of ‘white supremacy’ would suit 1960 Alabama. In 2023 they’re merely demagogic.
• Macron Calls for a Green ‘Pause’. Even Europeans are getting fed up with costly regulations. 

CNBC.com:

• Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand.
• U.S. Virgin Islands issued subpoena to Elon Musk in Jeffrey Epstein lawsuit.
• Federal agency will start testing universal flu vaccine based on mRNA technology
• More than 140 Democrats defend CFPB in case before Supreme Court that threatens agency’s existence.

MarketWatch:  

• Credit-card debt failed to decline in first quarter — for first time in over 20 years, New York Fed says.
• 14 million mortgages were refinanced during ‘pandemic boom.’ That makes life very difficult for home buyers.
• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway switched stakes in two banks, and the stocks head in opposite directions.
• David Tepper’s Appaloosa reveals new Tesla, Nvidia, FedEx positions.
• Ex-CEO of Silicon Valley Bank says no bank could have survived a run ‘of that velocity and magnitude’.
• A stock-market milestone: Apple is now worth more than the companies in the Russell 2000 index combined.

Newsmax:

• Devin Nunes: Durham Should 'Scare the Living Hell Out of Everyone'.
• Rep. Chris Smith: Biden Doesn't Care About Border.

Fox News:

• Trump reacts after bombshell Durham report revelations on DOJ, FBI
• READ THE FULL DURHAM REPORT HERE
• Durham findings could cause lasting damage to intel community: Former prosecutor.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Durham Report: Plan by Hillary Clinton to Link Trump to Russia Was Briefed by John Brennan to Obama and Biden in August 2016!
• JUST IN: John Durham Releases Final Report Concluding FBI Had No Verified Intel When it Opened Crossfire Hurricane Investigation Into Trump.
• Biden’s Open Borders Invasion: Illegal Alien Tracking Map Shows Movement of the Masses of Illegals Across the US – 71% End Up in Republican Districts.
• MAJOR FRAUD EXPOSED: Democrats Caught Committing Massive Finance Crimes and Donations Harvesting in Indiana – Exclusive Video.
• PROTESTERS LINE THE STREETS to Greet Serial Liar and Megalomaniac Dr. Tony Fauci to His Commencement Speech at Wash U Medical School in St. Louis.
• Donald Trump Announces He Will Release ALL of the JFK Assassination Files if Re-Elected President.
• SMOKING GUN: “This Election Was RIGGED” – Kari Lake Attorneys Say “Clear Misconduct and Intent” Caused 260 of 446 Tabulators to Fail on Election Day – FILING INCLUDED.
• Kentucky Democrat Lawmaker Dead at 45 After Suffering ‘Significant Medical Emergency’.
• Far-Left Vice Media Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy to Enable Sale to Soros.
• Ahead of Swearing In of Radical Progressive Chicago Mayor Johnson, 49 Shootings on Mother’s Day Weekend.
• Biden’s DHS Is Offering Concierge Service for Illegal Aliens – Government Employees will Pick Up Their Tagged Bags at the Border for Them (Video).

The Epoch Times:

• Fired ByteDance Exec Claims in Lawsuit That China Has Open Access to US User Data
• Communist China One of World’s ‘Worst Abusers of Human Rights and Religious Freedom’: State Department Report.

Twitter: 

• @acemaxx - The burst of optimism that #Fed ’s hiking cycle has reached its peak looks premature after Americans’ 5y #inflation expectations jumped to a 12y high, chart
  @GarfieldR1966. (graph)
• @WallStCynic - For those that remember, this has early-2007 ABX vibes. BBB- CMBX is down over 10% since October. (graph)
•  @Rifleman4WVU - "South Shore, Chicago voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by a whopping 97%. This is how residents are reacting to 250-500 migrants coming to their area:" (video)
• @Mayhem4Markets - The Fed's pivot isn't always well received by the market Source: Goldman Sachs. (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 959,637 Reports(+1,684 from prior week) Through May 5th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 -.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.0 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.4 +1.9%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.12 -8.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 +.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Diminished Regional Bank Contagion Fears, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 +1.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .72%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.5 +3.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.9 +.38%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 -5.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.5 -4.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .89 unch.

• NYSE Arms .78 -29.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.9 +.05%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.83 -.77%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 420.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.07 -.42% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 382.64 -.26%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.73 -.49%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 257.39 +3.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.22 -.46%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 174.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 711.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.14% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.55 USD/Metric Tonne -.46%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.9 -8.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.7 -3.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) -3.2% +.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.09 +.14:  Growth Rate +2.2% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 198.85 +.33: Growth Rate +28.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.03 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.55 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -49.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.14% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 57.7%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 44.5%(-3.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +259 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +71 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long