Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.3% 2) Pharma -.9% 3) Medical Equipment -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SA, ASND, OSW, LI, RNR, VKTX, GDS, MDGL, KDNY, NNOX, BEKE, WWE, VRNA, HESM, ONON, DOCS, NXGN, GTES, PSFE, TGLS, CDMO, MAXN, INTA, KD and ICPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KNX 2) AMGN 3) EWC 4) LYV 5) TJX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WE 2) EVGO 3) KD 4) ICPT 5) DOCS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Regional Banks +5.9% 2) Airlines +4.3% 3) Gambling +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TGI, BSM, UPST, NYCB, KEYS, APP, AI, WYNN, EGBN, NOW, SMCI, UAL and VYGR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IONQ 2) DNMR 3) HZNP 4) JOBY 5) SPRY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EPOW 2) PACW 3) TGI 4) PUMP 5) WAL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BBWI)/.26
• (BABA)/9.47
• (GOOS)/.07
• (CSIQ)/.73
• (DOLE)/.18
• (EXP)/2.30
• (MNRO)/.32
• (PLCE)/-1.78
• (WMT)/1.32
  

After the Close: 

• (AMAT)/1.83
• (FLO)/.38
• (NTNX)/.03
• (ROST)/1.05
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 253K versus 264K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1819K versus 1813K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for May is estimated to rise to -20.0 versus -31.3 in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for April is estimated to fall to 4.3M versus 4.44M in March.
• The Leading Index for April is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -1.2% decline in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr testimony to Senate, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Australian Unemployment report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Transport Airlines/Industrials Conference and the (ITW) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -9.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 +.6
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 59.3% of Issues Advancing, 31.7% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 57 New Lows
• 40.3%(+3.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.6 -.63%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,668.2 -.03%
• 1-Day Vix 9.7 -30.9%
  
• Vix 17.7 -1.5% 
  
• Total Put/Call 1/.02 +10.9%
• TRIN/Arms .82 -43.5%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Yuan Weakens Toward Key Psychological Level Amid Data Misses.
• Wall Street’s Biggest Banks Face a Harsh Reality Check in China.
• UBS Maintains Investment Flows in Taiwan as Tensions Mount.
• Japan Economy Grows More Than Expected After Technical Recession.
• UBS Sees Multibillion Gain on Credit Suisse, But Legal Costs Too. 
• Japan Stocks Add to Gains After GDP Beats Forecast: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Lower as Concerns Over China’s Recovery Cloud Outlook.
• The Key Points That Could Complicate a Debt-Limit Deal.
• Elon Musk Says Tesla Will Try Advertising.
• US Challenge to Amgen Deal Threatens Big Pharma Business Model.
• Fed Officials Reveal Debate Over Whether to Pause Rate Hike in June.
• Americans Have Never Been So Unwilling to Relocate for a New Job.

Zero Hedge:

• Bud Light Backlash Shows No Sign Of Letting Up, And Now There Is Contagion To Budweiser, Busch And Michelob.
• Russia Says It Took Out US-Supplied Patriot Missile In Hypersonic Strike On Kiev.
• Von Greyerz & Macleod: Insights On The Rotten State Of The Banking System.
• Report Reveals ATF Misappropriated $20 Million To Pay Bureaucrat Salaries.
• GOP Presidential Candidates React To Durham Report: 'Shut Down The FBI'.
• US X-Date Is Now June 5 As Treasury Burns $52BN Cash In One Day, Only $87BN Left.
• IEA Lift Global Oil Growth Forecast On Record Chinese Demand.
• Escobar: US Empire Of Debt Headed For Collapse.
• US stocks declined amid mixed data and debt ceiling concerns - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• This Is What Hedge Funds Bought And Sold In Q1: 13F Summary.
• From tech highs to debt ceiling and tail risks.
• Debt Ceiling Brinksmanship And The Necessity For Spending Reforms.
• Four Reasons Why Chicago Should Dump Its 'Sanctuary City' Status.
• WTI Holds Losses After Another Surprise Crude Build, Cushing Stocks Soar.
• Stocks and bonds lower after mixed data, Fed speak, debt ceiling talks and earnings - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Victor Davis Hanson: Hang All The Members Of The Liars' Club?
• Biden & Bad Data: Big-Tech Bid, Banks Skid; Bonds & Bullion Breakdown.

Wall Street Journal:

• Rare Pharma Antitrust Action Seeks to Block Amgen-Horizon Deal.
• What Everyone—Except the U.S.—Has Learned About Immigration.
• The Return to the Office Has Stalled.
• The Left’s War on the Rule of Law. There’s no greater threat to our form of government than attacks on the Supreme Court and the judiciary’s legitimacy.
• The ESG Proxy Vote Ranking. Is your asset manager voting based on the interests of investors or for political agendas?
• Why the Durham Report Matters to Democracy. It is a damning account of the corruption of the FBI and its accomplices. 
• Americans Curb Spending on Home Improvements.
• ChatGPT’s Sam Altman Warns Congress That AI ‘Can Go Quite Wrong’.
• Couples Can Soon Put Over $10,000 a Year Into Health Savings Accounts.
• China’s Recovery Loses Steam, Signaling Trouble for Global Economy.

CNBC.com:

• Progress made in White House debt limit meeting, talks to continue as U.S. rushes to prevent default.
• Elon Musk talks Tesla, Twitter, and why he tweets freely — even if it costs him money.
• Elon Musk: Working from home is ‘morally wrong’.
• CNBC Daily Open: Consumer demand is flagging.
• Why Home Depot’s weak outlook could be a warning sign for Target earnings.
• Elon Musk on 2024 election: We want a good CEO of America.
• Apple’s next big iPhone update lets you create a digital voice that sounds like you.
• What Home Depot’s poor outlook means for stock market, economy.

MarketWatch: 

• Tesla’s Elon Musk expects ‘a year of difficulty’ for the global economy.
• Pfizer borrows $31 billion in mega bond deal as debt issuance picks up ahead of debt-ceiling deadline.
• Home Depot’s bad news might not just be bad news for Lowe’s.

 Newsmax:

• Trump to Newsmax: Durham Offers 'Great Vindication' After Hoax.
• Rep. Fry: Durham Proves Govt Weaponized.

Fox News:

• Karine Jean-Pierre ends press briefing after being pressed on bombshell Durham report.
• 'Alarming' MLB team partnership with radical LGBT activists draws Catholic ire.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Sports Illustrated Puts Transgender Biological Man on Cover of Swimsuit Edition.
• BREAKING: Soros-Funded St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner Resigns Early – Will Leave Office Today.
• House Oversight GOP Releases Statement After Biden Regime Retaliates Against IRS Whistleblower, Knifes Entire Team Investigating Hunter Biden.
• WATCH: Shocking Video Shows Maricopa County’s Fraudulent Signature Verification – Worker “Verifies” Signatures in LESS THAN 2 Seconds Per Signature.
• BREAKING: O’Keefe Media Group Releases Undercover Video, FOX News Producer Reveals, “Tucker Getting Fired Was Part of It” – The Dominion Settlement! (VIDEO).
• Never Forget the Misinformation and Collusion by the Mockingbird Media Regarding “Russia, Russia, Russia” – And Remember Who Had it Right from the Beginning.
• University of Wyoming Sorority Sisters Live “In Constant Fear” of Giant Transgender Student Who Sexually Harasses Them in Multiple Ways Including Silently Staring at Them While Visibly Aroused (VIDEO).
• MIT Scientists Create Device That Can Hack Dreams.
• 5th Grade Teacher Who Showed Students LGBT-Themed Disney Movie Says “Rights as Parents… Are Gone When Your Child is in the Public School System” (VIDEO).
• “They Dragged Us to Hell and We Are Standing and Fighting Back” – Kari Lake Has THREE Whistleblowers Who Will Testify that 130,000 Did Not Pass Signature Verification — But Election Officials Counted Them Anyway!
• NEVER FORGET: Nancy Pelosi Swore She Had “Cold Hard Evidence” of Collusion Between Russia and Trump Family – A COMPLETE LIE – Video.

The Epoch Times:

• Biden Vetoes Bill Restoring Tariffs on Some Chinese Solar Panels.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 959,637 Reports(+1,684 from prior week) Through May 5th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.75 +1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.75 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.4 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.9 +1.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.17 -10.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Biotech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 +1.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .62%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.7 +.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.4 +.21%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.2 +1.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .89 -6.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.09 +43.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.8 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 418.31 +.17%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 433.0 +13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.1 +.09% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 375.5 -1.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 +.17%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 262.1 +1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.1 -.4%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 17.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 175.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 711.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.4 -.40%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.13% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.2 +5.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.3 -2.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.4 -15.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(458 of 500 reporting) -3.3% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.11 +.02:  Growth Rate +2.2% unch., P/E 18.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 198.99 +.14: Growth Rate +28.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.6 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.06 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.49 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -52.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.61% -14.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% -1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 64.0%(+4.9 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 42.9%(-3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +83 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/medical/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long