Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -4.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.9 +.1
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 56.0% of Issues Advancing, 41.2% Declining
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 41.7%(+.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 +5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.3 +4.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,779.8 +.69%
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 -19.7%
  
• Vix 16.5 -2.2% 
  
• Total Put/Call .57 -41.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 +77.6%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Here’s What to Watch for at the G-7 Summit in Japan.
• Japan’s Imports Fall for the First Time in Over Two Years.
• BOE’s Bailey Warns of Risk of Inflation Persistence in UK.
• CDS Panel Says Credit Suisse AT1 Wipeout Won’t Prompt Payout.
• ECB Tightening Mostly Done But Has ‘a Way to Go,’ Guindos Says.
• Asia Stocks Follow US Gain on Debt-Deal Optimism: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies as US Debt Optimism Offsets Rising Crude Stockpiles.
• Biden ‘Confident’ on Reaching Debt Deal as GOP Bashes Japan Trip.
• Commercial Real Estate Prices in the US Fall for First Time Since 2011.
• Fed Inspector General Defends $378,000 Pay From Senate Criticism.
• Citadel Securities Alleges Ex-Employees Stole Trade Secrets.
• NY MTA Lost $690 Million Last Year to Fare And Toll Evasion.
• Micron to Get $1.5 Billion From Japan for Next-Gen Chips.
• Debt-Ceiling Tail Hedges Are ‘Cheap Lottery Tickets,’ Bank of America Says.

Zero Hedge:

• China Says New US Support For Taiwan "Absolutely Intolerable".
• FBI Leadership Sabotaged Clinton Foundation Investigations: Durham Report.
• FBI Audit Reveals 8,000 Unjustified Searches Of Americans' Communications.
• Jeffrey Epstein Moved $270,000 For Noam Chomsky, Paid Leon Botstein $150K
• The Hate Industry.
• "Softening Sales Trends" - Target Stores Go Woke As Consumer Slowdown Signals Accelerate.
• Wendy's Plans New Underground Delivery System for Mobile Orders.
• Supreme Court Sides With Inmate Who Wants To Be Executed With Nitrogen Gas.
• Finally some moves.
• Taxpayers Fleeced Again? Big Banks Push New FDIC Re-Funding 'Trick'.
• US stocks rallied amid optimism amongst regional banks and debt ceiling talks - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Another Disney World Brawl: Guest Conduct Mirrors Company's and Society's Decay.
• Stocks surge on debt ceiling optimism, regional bank recovery, and retail earnings - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Banks Bounce Again As Massive Short Squeeze Lifts Stocks; Bonds Battered.

Wall Street Journal:

• Young Americans Are Dying at Alarming Rates.
• Apple Is Trying to Make This $3,000 Gadget Cool.
• Epstein Assisted Chomsky, Botstein With Financial Transactions.
• Schwab Taps Credit Markets to Raise $2.5 Billion in Debt.
• The GOP Can Win on Work Requirements and Welfare. The details show how reasonable the House debt-ceiling proposals are.

CNBC.com:

• Target expects organized retail crime-fueled losses to jump by $500 million this year.
• Google plans to use new A.I. models for ads and to help YouTube creators, sources say.
• California’s high-speed rail is running out of money, but progress has been made.

MarketWatch: 

• Opinion: Cisco sends a worrisome signal for tech demand, and the stock is falling.
• 20 AI stocks expected to post the highest compound annual sales growth through 2025.
• China’s reopening recovery is running out of steam and starting to worry financial markets.
• Ovulation tracker app Premom charged with sharing users’ personal information.
• ‘I see several worrying trends’: Americans are not paying off their credit-card debt. We should be concerned. 
• Why market timers are concerned about the gap between the Dow transports and the Dow industrials.

 Newsmax:

• Sen. Tuberville: 'Cartels Are Running Our Borders'.
• Key FBI Whistleblowers Prepare to Testify Thursday Before House.
• Jeff Clark: 'Accountability' Must Follow Durham.
• Gidley: Removal of IRS Investigators of Hunter 'Stinks'.
• Sen. Paul: Russiagate Hoaxers Should Go to 'Prison'.

Fox News:

• Lawmakers on Dems’ $14 trillion reparations demand to address harms 'since the founding’.
• Chicago mayor's allies push for $12 billion financial package to raise taxes, defund police.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• UPDATE: “This Was COMPLETELY DIFFERENT Names” – Maricopa County Signature Reviewer Testifies in Kari Lake Trial Trial She Felt “Pressured” by Supervisors Sending Already Rejected Signatures Back to Them for Approval.
• BREAKING: GOP Representative Anna Paulina Luna Submits House Resolution to Expel Serial Liar Rep. Adam Schiff from Congress.
• EXCLUSIVE J6 FOOTAGE | Defense Attorney Exposes THE EXACT MOMENT.
  
• Ballots Stolen In Philadelphia On Election Day.
• Adidas Collaborates with Radical Designer – Unveils Homely Male as Company’s Newest Women’s Swimwear Model – Conservatives Respond in Brutal Fashion.
• CNN Death Spiral: Newsmax Beats CNN in Prime Time Ratings.
• Judicial Watch Chairman Tom Fitton: Trump-Russia Collusion Hoax Was Made Up By Hillary to Keep Herself Out of Jail (Video).
• Map Tracks Illegal Aliens Biden Regime Is Strategically Placing Across America… Are They Moving To Your Community?
• Here We Go: NIH Begins Testing of Clinical Trial of Universal Flu Vaccine Based on mRNA.
• Covenant School Files Motion of Intervention to Block Release of Trans Nashville Shooter’s Manifesto.
• Democrat Lawmakers Reintroduce Bill to Pack the U.S. Supreme Court, Add Four More Liberal Judges (VIDEO).
• Devin Nunes Tells OANN People Involved in the Trump-Russia Collusion Hoax Should Be Put on Trial (VIDEO).
• Elon Musk Schools Reporter on ‘Conspiracy Theories’ by Pointing Out That the Hunter Biden Laptop Was Real and ‘Election Interference’ (VIDEO).
• Miller Lite Doubles Down on Vulgar, S-Bomb-Laden Feminist Ad and Insults Americans for Airing Complaints – Company Previously Made Huge Donation to Far Left Woke Group.
  

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Spies Highly Active in EU’s Heartland: Report.
• NIH Cuts Off Funding to Wuhan Lab at Center of COVID Leak Controversy.
• Sunak Abandons Campaign Pledge to Ban Confucius Institutes.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 959,637 Reports(+1,684 from prior week) Through May 5th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 71.5 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.3 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.6 +1.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 -10.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.16%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.63%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Debt Ceiling Agreement Hopes, Diminished Regional Bank Contagion Fears, Short-Covering, Financial/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -4.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .67%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.3 +.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.0 +.55%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.7 -4.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -7.6%

• NYSE Arms .74 -49.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.0 -1.98%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 414.99 -1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 437.0 +4.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.63 -.46% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 365.3 -2.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.2 +1.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 261.1 -1.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.1 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.25 basis points -3.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 713.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.4 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.21% +8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.45%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 1.4 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.3 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.0 +1.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(461 of 500 reporting) -3.3% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.26 +.15:  Growth Rate +2.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.0 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 199.36 +.37: Growth Rate +28.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +13.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.54 -5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -59.0 basis points (2s/10s) -6.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.89% +28.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 61.9%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 43.6%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +392 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +78 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.3% 2) Pharma -.9% 3) Medical Equipment -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SA, ASND, OSW, LI, RNR, VKTX, GDS, MDGL, KDNY, NNOX, BEKE, WWE, VRNA, HESM, ONON, DOCS, NXGN, GTES, PSFE, TGLS, CDMO, MAXN, INTA, KD and ICPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KNX 2) AMGN 3) EWC 4) LYV 5) TJX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WE 2) EVGO 3) KD 4) ICPT 5) DOCS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Regional Banks +5.9% 2) Airlines +4.3% 3) Gambling +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TGI, BSM, UPST, NYCB, KEYS, APP, AI, WYNN, EGBN, NOW, SMCI, UAL and VYGR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IONQ 2) DNMR 3) HZNP 4) JOBY 5) SPRY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EPOW 2) PACW 3) TGI 4) PUMP 5) WAL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BBWI)/.26
• (BABA)/9.47
• (GOOS)/.07
• (CSIQ)/.73
• (DOLE)/.18
• (EXP)/2.30
• (MNRO)/.32
• (PLCE)/-1.78
• (WMT)/1.32
  

After the Close: 

• (AMAT)/1.83
• (FLO)/.38
• (NTNX)/.03
• (ROST)/1.05
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 253K versus 264K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1819K versus 1813K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for May is estimated to rise to -20.0 versus -31.3 in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for April is estimated to fall to 4.3M versus 4.44M in March.
• The Leading Index for April is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -1.2% decline in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr testimony to Senate, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Australian Unemployment report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Transport Airlines/Industrials Conference and the (ITW) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST