Thursday, May 18, 2023

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Telecom -1.7% 2) Alt Energy -1.4% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ETSY, AMR, NARI, JD, RGNX, OR, GOLD, TGT, ICPT, NEM, BIDU, BABA, PSFE, USM, HCC, DRD, PAAS, NTNX, DQ, NGG, BTU, NGVT, AGCO, KD, ATHM, BEKE, FUTU, PDD, VIPS, STNE, MNRO, BOOT, GOOS, LSPD and BOWL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GRAB 2) BKLN 3) KNX 4) MCHP 5) NLY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NSTG 2) GRAB 3) ICPT 4) TGT 5) WE
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Disk Drives +4.2% 2) Semis +2.1% 3) Computer Hardware +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SCPL, MSGE, UPST, TTWO, PLTR, BLBD, NFLX, BBWI, RMBS, SNPS, PRX, CPRT, SMCI, MU, LYTS, DT, DKNG and SHLS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GRPN 2) ATUS 3) RMBS 4) HZNP 5) TTWO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TTWO 2) PACW 3) SNPS 4) PUMP 5) MU

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CTLT)/.32
  • (DE)/8.47
  • (FL)/.78
  • (RBC)/1.86
After the Close: 
  • None of note

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg May US Economic Survey.
Upcoming Splits
  • (CHDN) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking and the Eurozone PPI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -4.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.9 +.1
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 56.0% of Issues Advancing, 41.2% Declining
  • 50 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 41.7%(+.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 +5.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.3 +4.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,779.8 +.69%
  • 1-Day Vix 10.4 -19.7%
  • Vix 16.5 -2.2% 
  • Total Put/Call .57 -41.2%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.19 +77.6%

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch: 
 Newsmax:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 -1.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 71.5 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.3 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.6 +1.4%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 -10.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.16%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.63%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Debt Ceiling Agreement Hopes, Diminished Regional Bank Contagion Fears, Short-Covering, Financial/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -4.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .67%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.3 +.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.0 +.55%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.7 -4.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 -7.6%
  • NYSE Arms .74 -49.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.0 -1.98%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 414.99 -1.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 437.0 +4.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.63 -.46% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 365.3 -2.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.2 +1.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 261.1 -1.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.1 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.25 basis points -3.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 713.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.4 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.21% +8.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.45%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 1.4 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.3 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.0 +1.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(461 of 500 reporting) -3.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.26 +.15:  Growth Rate +2.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.0 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 199.36 +.37: Growth Rate +28.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +13.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.54 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -59.0 basis points (2s/10s) -6.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.89% +28.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 61.9%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 43.6%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +392 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +78 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long