Saturday, May 20, 2023

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Friday, May 19, 2023

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,191.39 +1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 33,423.8 +.47%
  • NASDAQ 12,640.2 +2.99%
  • Russell 2000 1,771.32 +1.7%
  • NYSE FANG+ 6,730.0 +5.8% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 31.4 +6.4%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 137.85 +2.3%
  • Wilshire 5000 41,711.3 +1.7%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,557.09 +2.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,489.9 +.65%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 789.4 -1.8%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,155.03 +4.9%
  • NYSE Technology 3,285.6 +5.0%
  • Transports 13,912.8 +.97%
  • Utilities 917.2 -4.4%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 80.80 +1.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.1 +.99%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,471.6 +.17%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 923.54 +.09%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 453,646 +.16%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.3 -21.3%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 166 +378
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -24.1 +5.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 216,628 +.83%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,885,886 -1.17%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -5.6%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.21 +2.8%
  • ISE Sentiment 108.0 -1.0 point
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 -91.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.8 +8.9%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .03 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -4.54 unch.
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -1.1%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .95% +6.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.0 -9.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.3 -3.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.5 -3.2%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,745.55 +2.1%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  59.0 -6.2
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.342 Trillion +.25%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.361 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 22.9 -22.1%
  • AAII % Bears 39.7 -3.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 261.66 +1.5%
  • Crude Oil 71.62/bbl. +1.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 257.8 +5.6%
  • Natural Gas 2.59 +16.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.18 euros/megawatt-hour -8.7%
  • Heating Oil 236.40 +3.4% 
  • Newcastle Coal 154.0 (1,000/metric ton) -4.4%
  • Gold 1,979.07 -1.6%
  • Silver 23.83 -.28%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 414.86 -.53%
  • Copper 372.7 +.28%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 378.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.27%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.14%
  • CME Lumber  502.0 -1.7%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,517.97 -1.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 395.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.89% +14.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index .80 -20.0%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 131.3 n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) -2.8% +1.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.25 +.30:  Growth Rate +2.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.4 +.3 
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.22% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 199.74 +1.22: Growth Rate +29.0% +.8 percentage point, P/E 34.1 +1.7
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.5 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.5 -6.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.3 -14.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.75-5.0%, 79.3%(-5.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 20.7%(+5.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.25-5.50% on 6/14
  • US Dollar Index 103.13 +.36%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,678.76 -.52%
  • Bitcoin/USD 26,922.90 +.04%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.18 +1.1%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -58.5 -3.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.68% +22.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.420 Trillion -.54% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $9.201 Billion +99.1%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.20 -24.4%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 183.33 +.47%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 -7.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.0 +3.8%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.25 -4.6%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 217.11 -4.5%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.47 -2.2%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.07 -5.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.9 -1.8%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.3% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +5.3% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +7.6% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25% +6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 13.25 -2.5 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 +2.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 79.77 -1.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 258.0 -1.7
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 438.0 +1.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 95.9 -6.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 320.72 -17.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 256.93 +3.3%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 173.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 716.0 +8.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .94 -1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -4.1% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,139.6 -.6%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 244,250 -.41%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.3 -1.3%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.99% +15.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 214,900 -5.7%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.5% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +12.0% +25.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $176.1M -.8%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon -.00/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,402 -10.0%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 946.18 -1.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +16.7%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 42.0 -3.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 240,810 +1.1%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,627,978 +26.4%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +2.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value +.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Disk Drives +11.3%
  • Computer Hardware +8.2%
  • Semis +7.5%
  • Regional Banks +7.3%
  • Shipping +1.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Foods -1.8%
  • Retail -2.0%
  • REITs -2.4%
  • Gold & Silver -3.8%
  • Utilities -4.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)
  • CTLT, SDGR, MXL, DXC, BLFS, EPAM, IMGN and VTS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)
  • SIMO, ZNTL, NKE, ULTA, SKX, CROX, NARI, DECK, MODG, CABA, HIBB, SIG, PLCE, GOOS, DKS, SKY, QFIN, AEO, ASO, VFC, KSS, FLO and FL
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Diminished US Debt Ceiling Agreement Optimism, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.8 +4.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .95%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.2 +1.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.3 -.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 -.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.0 +7.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 -4.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .87 +6.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.17 +21.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.5 -.34%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 406.99 -.28%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 438.0 -9.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.2 -.8% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 318.02 -6.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.9 -2.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 257.42 +.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.9 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.5 basis points +.2 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 173.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 716.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.2 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.24% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.5 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.5 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.3 -.7 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) -2.8% +.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.24 -.07:  Growth Rate +2.3% unch., P/E 18.4 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.22% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 199.74 +.13: Growth Rate +29.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 34.1 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.54 -6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -59.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.89% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 86.2%(+24.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 57.2%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -30 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long